Seeking Alpha

Precious metals tumble as "Octaper" eyed

Comments (172)
  • Why does anyone believe what the Fed President's say? Investing has turned from technical analysis and valuations to what will the Fed do since Greenspan's briefcase. But it is/was Greenspan and Bernanke who are blowing the bubbles and causing the inevitable crashes.

     

    Taper talk is just talk. Debt ceiling is for real. That's more important for the media to discuss at present. Tapering would simply add higher interest payments to the debt. This is not something the Fed wants. This is not something the real estate market wants if it is in fact in recovery mode (which I don't believe it is any longer).
    20 Sep 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Taper is not just talk. It is inevitable given the rapid improvement in the US economy.

     

    And honestly, the Fed doesn't give a damn about the government's interest payments. It is not their responsibility.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Apparently you need to come back to the U.S., American in Paris! The economy has not rapidly improved, unless the term "rapid improvement" suggests a climb from the depths of the recession to ho-hum employment figures and chronic under-employment among those in their 20's. Those of us who have corporate managerial responsibility can vouch for that reality.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • AIP your understanding of the economic situation is very backwards.

     

    There are no economic improvements in the USA. Things keep deteriorating. By October more data will show that taper is not possible unless replaced with another money printing scheme.

     

    The Fed decisions are driven by politics not economics.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • ??? " rapid improvement in the US economy." Are you serious ? Where do you live? There is no improvement. At best things are stable....
    20 Sep 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,

     

    More blame it on the Fed --- & no, there is no "bubble , "crash" imminent. No techncals ? Maybe if one wasnt so fed obsessed one would notice. The market just flashed a new dow theory buy signal which again adds to the argument for a secular bull market. Stocks wil be much higher in '14 than they are today ..

     

    Debt ceiling talk , will, ,in the end be just that - talk ,, while it may give a short term "fear" boost to Gold , at the end of the day Gold will continue in its bear market. Fed's plan to reduce asset purchases and rate normalization as the global economies grow will prove to be toxic for Gold. The landscape that Gold will find itself in while we enter 2014 will be most unfavorable for the metal driving it to new lows in '14.

     

    Be reminded that the debt ceiling debate last year gave the astute investor an outstanding entry point to this bull market.. As the DC crowd comes onto the scene I expect there comedy act will oblige the bulls again..
    20 Sep 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • WHAT IMPROVEMENT? What world? Certainly not this one,maybe the one you live in . Obamakoolaidland?
    20 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • To F& G who wrote : "Stocks wil be much higher in '14 than they are today ."

     

    Yes and money will be worth less again !
    20 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Doug, it looks like the debt ceiling issue is on its way getting resolved?
    Why the worry then?
    20 Sep 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Coins if you have missed the slew of positive global economic data that has been rolled out from all sources, than I honestly cant help u or those that choose to play in the twilight zone while ignoring every bit of good news.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    "Money will be worth less again" my reply, same S--- , different day , & I suppose gold is going to save me ?

     

    20 Sep 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • "Rapid improvement"? I don't know what country you are looking at, but it ain't this one.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tom,
    try taking a look at the global situation , & some of the PMI ,Auto sales results , corp profits , record corp div increases.. On & On --that you seem to want to overlook.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins,

     

    The people who say that are usually the ones who voted for Romney. I prefer to look at the facts.

     

    Real GDP is up 10% from the recession. That's a recovery. It may be a B- recovery as opposed to a A+ recovery, but it is a recovery and it could have been lot worse if we had listened to the corporate types who wanted massive government cutbacks.

     

    It would be nice if Seeking Alpha, which is an investment web site, could be purged of all the whiners.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Really, so things have constantly gettinhg worse but real income and GDP are up 10%? And consumer confidence has skyrocketed ...

     

    And Ben Bernanke, the Republican, is pulling all the stops for Democrat Obama.

     

    And who is out of touch with reality?

     

    :)
    20 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • I am trained as an economist. I don't give fear mongering or right wing populism a second thought.

     

    There is a reason that Obama was re-elected and that was because the economy showed big improvement.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Obama? You mean the guy who got a majority of the American vote?
    20 Sep 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • "whiners" AKA "frustrated bears"

     

    The latest bear "fear" list

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Sep 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • AIP:

     

    You know, the constant lament of a lackluster recovery, versus a very exuberant snappy one, appears to overlook how those two types of events usually contrast themselves. I look at a fast, versus slower, recovery, like the difference between a sprinter and a marathon runner. The sprinter and his race are much more exciting to watch, but they end a lot quicker, too. The marathoner is like watching the grass grow, but he goes a lot further, too.

     

    And, markets are the same, too; the "hot' recoveries are obvious to all and have everybody exuberantly piling into the market. Then, they fizzle,as liquidity get exhausted, and everybody panics. It's much better to have slow, doubt-laden progress and a steady, long-duration rise.

     

    I'll pick the tortoise over the hare, anytime, as far as economic recoveries go.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Obama? You mean the guy whom an Ohio poll worker voted for .... 6 Times

     

    http://bit.ly/1evHNTO
    20 Sep 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • AIP and F&G, the taper talk today is just talk. Did I say anything about the future AIP? But you are both wrong about the future too as you don't understand that there is no rapid improvement in the economy except in two areas that the banks, via the FED QE has put into the system; financials (primarily) and big government projects (energy, military). This represents the bulk of any "growth" or improvement in the economy.

     

    The market though has nothing to do with the economy. It is solely living and breathing life via the Fed's action right now. Ignore this at your own peril F&G. This cannot and will not last. Look at Greenspan's blowing of bubbles and now Bernanke. Simple as that.

     

    I talk to business owners every day and ask how they are doing. The answers of late, haven't been that promising. The restaurants downtown here in San Diego have seen little local business when the conventions aren't in town.

     

    Regarding debt ceiling, how can you ignore 2011? Is it an election year next year? Will voters look to see how the Republicans and Democrats voted? Will the stock market be at 30,000 and the Democrats a shoe in? Hardly.

     

    Regarding gold, you are calling an asset class that has been beaten down to go down further. Asset allocation dictates one should buy it.

     

    User 92, if you make statements like that, please provide a link so I can see what point of view it comes from. This debate is far from over. Here is what PBS had to say about it: House Strategy Tees Up Showdown Over Budget, Debt Limit http://to.pbs.org/18GzQZH

     

    F&G, no one is talking about gold saving you. But the case can be made, which you never seem to understand for some reason, that it fits into a proper asset allocation, especially now with the downturn in the asset class.

     

    AIP, regarding the 10% recovery, so throwing a few trillion at the economy got us 10% and you are saying we're doing fine because of this added debt burden to all of us who pay taxes here? Good thing you are in France where things are so wonderful right? France: On the Edge of the Periphery http://read.bi/18GzQZK

     

    AIP, you say you are a trained economist like that is supposed to mean something to us here. Remember, the economist who didn't see the 2008 crisis come sure can't see any future crisis occur, especially when they have applied the wrong medicine. But you keep thinking Obama has solved the problems here. I'll talk to you in a few years about that "illusion."
    20 Sep 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • DE:

     

    Seeing yet another claim that the economy is being held up in thin air (barely) by QE, and that only banks, oil workers and military personnel are benefitting, You mean, only bankers, oil-company personnel and military types are buying all those autos, home and other goods that keep ascending upward each and every month?

     

    I can only assume you do not pull up any charts of various economic data, e.g., retail sales, auto sales, home sales, corporate revenues, corporate profits, private credit levels, credit delinquencies, etc., etc. I'd expect that you would encounter some alarm, trying to reconcile your views with the numbers presented.

     

    As for the anecdotal observations, in the last few months I have been in Calfornia, Maryland, Florida and New York City, and all I observe is every single establishment packed to the gills and money flying around in a blizzard. I happen to live in Southwest Florida and can attest that business is at all-time best levels for merchants and as reported by the taxing authorities. Last month's housing report showed sales up 84% over the previous August and prices rising briskly. This is all due to QE, most of which is sitting in excess reserves? That truly is amazing, that it could have such a profound effect, just sitting there.

     

    And, now, as we look outward, we find that the U.S., China, Japan and, now, even Europe are all reporting positive economic news in unison. This would hardly suggest bad times looming around the corner. In fact, it suggests that the Fed should be very vigilant about keeping an eye on all those excess reserves, lest they get translated into commercial loans at a rate that would stoke inflation. Tapering is well warranted, presently, and this will be even more obvious in the not-too-distant future.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,

     

    Buy an asset class (Gold) that is in the grips of a bear market, looks to have a 30% downside risk from here as opposed to very very limited upside given the landscape ahead..?? Can't understand why You can't grasp that ..

     

    Your market theory that its all fed induced is once again misguided.

     

    You have been shown to be completely wrong with the rhetoric you have spouted about the global recovery. First it was Europe (one country after another Spain, Portugal, Italy,et al), then China, then when that didn't occur you turned to Japan, and that was going to crater us -- One crisis after another that didn't and isn't going to materialize, but thanks for the warning and concern for my "peril"

     

    Most astute investors have their "crisis" plan that comes in part with tech & fundamental analysis , it certainly doesn't include the emotion of an asset class like Gold.

     

    In conclusion to your misguided comment, I understand "plenty"
    20 Sep 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • I generally don't respond to commenters, but here I must. We are not in recovery here in Huntsville, Alabama. Depression would be more like it. My husband lost his job in2010 and had to relocate to the Silicon Valley to find a job. We cannot afford to move so I am here holding down the fort. You can talk numbers and politics all you but we here in Huntsville. Are living the reality. And aside from that my kids who have graduated from the University of Alabama can not find a decent job. They are all part time minimum wage, and that is after $40,000 and a university degree. Those are the facts, American in Paris.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • If you are living out of the country I must as, are you one of the tax dodgers who isn't paying your fare share?
    20 Sep 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, thanks for the links to the data. So what you are saying, is consumers are what is fueling economic growth. Somehow consumers didn't see 2008 coming along with the Keynesian economists. Your Florida example is exactly how it was before the last crash was it not? Does big money buying housing with cash signify the return of housing to its glory years? I think not. Separate that from what banks are doing with the money the Fed is buying their toxic assets with.

     

    Listen, when all Central banks are throwing money at the economy, it will give you spurts of growth that we have now seen. I am telling you that I see this changing as we speak.

     

    You left out the little part about tapering and the effect on the Fed's interest payment on the debt. They know what's ahead and that's why I said they wouldn't taper and was correct.

     

    Calling the Fed Taper Bluff and What Gold Might Do Next

     

    http://bit.ly/196sABe

     

    Data:

     

    Government propping up business "for the moment:" http://bit.ly/16lvVur

     

    Financial sector: http://bit.ly/16lvVut

     

    And do you really believe the economic data coming out of China?
    http://1.usa.gov/16lvVuu

     

    But hey...I'm still dollar bullish and negative overall on gold as I have written; Sticking With Stronger Dollar and Weaker Gold Through End of Year http://bit.ly/15AYcRs
    20 Sep 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • DE:

     

    You can get all the data to which I referred by pulling up the chart of your desire at http://www.ycharts.com. I've posted the specific links too many times, already, and don't need all the extra homework.

     

    Honestly, I have to laugh at the "propping up business" link. A women's forum is data? Are you trying to make a joke?

     

    You comment about 2008 is simply without meaning or context. We arrived at 2008 because of massive over-extension of private credit, mostly to borrowers who had utterly no ability or intention to repay borrowed funds. This coupled with an exuberant stock market that had absorbed all liquidity set the stage for the massive, deflationary sell-off, which was aided and abetted by a nonsensical mark-to-market accounting rule, which had no bearing on reality.

     

    Now, we have consumer credit relatively low; we have all-time-record low delinquencies; we have massive liquidity and a low-volume market, laden with doubters on an hourly basis, and we see global economic reports improving. You're trying to suggest this is the recipe for imminent unforeseen collapse? Suggesting such, divorced from the underlying data and realities is simply fear mongering and specious.

     

    And, you have a completely oxymoronic position, if you say tapering will never happen, but you like dollars over gold. One or the other is wrong, by definition. It's going to turn out to be the former, almost without the slightest doubt. Even the markets have quickly realized that, after their one-day euphoric no-taper party.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    If all these problems happening now (debt limit, tapering/no tapering, weak economy, inflation,etc...) why gold and silver are still heading down?
    I don't see peole have enthausim to jump in like before.
    Any comment?
    20 Sep 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • You once again miss the point F&G . You in your alleged belief ,feel that the stock market reflects the economy that real people have to live and deal with every day. Get a clue ,it DOES NOT.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • To wear those rose colored glasses Steve ,you have to ignore so much reality.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Why doesn't Obama want to write his speeches? he prefers the process of dictating.What is the credit rating of the U.S, under the dictator Obama.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • And we will all be drinking FREE Bubble-Up and eating that RainBow stew .
    20 Sep 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Poor training = circular reasoning.You should learn real economics for a positive change in your life.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/14r9aJ1

     

    My stock picks have been better than yours have Steve. And the same market, so who's whining ? YOU?
    20 Sep 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,

     

    I see, Now it's time to roll out the 'class" card ...

     

    Shall we all sit back and lament every issue and problem out there with the "real people" that i simply have no control over ? Sure there are plenty of inequities.
    Get a clue --i cant solve them & neither can you, pontificating and lamenting over them isn't going to change a thing and it simply doesn't add to a conversation involving investing..

     

    Bringing politics and righteousness into the investment arena that we are in here doesn't add anything of merit. ... There are plenty of other blogs that cater to that ..
    So once again you fail to see the point why some are here at SA .

     

    20 Sep 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • The briefcase indicator....I forgot about that. that was classic cnbc
    20 Sep 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, looks to "you" to have a 30% downside risk. But I see you don't understand asset allocation fully. You don't grasp what the Fed does that drives markets? Really? So 2008 was just a supply and demand/technical driven collapse? It was about the banks, which I have written about, and it still is about the banks with the Fed buying their toxic assets.

     

    You saying I am wrong doesn't bother me. I am right about gold and you know it, so don't sit there on your high horse calling it "rhetoric" and that I'm "misguided." Sorry pal. You don't have a long enough track record of writing to claim superiority. Talk to me in a year and see where we are. But I don't think you will have to wait that long. I though, have been writing about the gold market since 2010 and have called it pretty damn good. Show me what you wrote back then? At least I use my real name.

     

    Tack, 2008 comment without meaning or context? Next time quote what I say so I don't have to go back and look ok? And the link you gave me to a charting site and referencing your past muses that I have no clue about did nothing for your case.

     

    As far as gold goes, I like dollars over gold for the short term, and come next year like dollars and gold both. I'll explain further in my next book that makes this case.

     

    The markets moved against gold because of Bullard's taper comments in case you didn't hear.

     

    user92, regarding what is going on with gold, even Richard Russell in his Dow Theory Letters yesterday said the dollar was still in a bullish set up. This has been ongoing since about Sept. of 2011. The enthusiasm for gold has subsided, anyone can see this. Until it changes to the other direction and moves higher. The fact that market makers can move an asset that has such a small market cap should be no surprise to anyone, and I have mentioned that quite a bit.

     

    20 Sep 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • DE:

     

    Of course, the dollar is bullish because rates are going to rise because global economies are expanding and loan demand will do likewise. Tapering is a given notwithstanding short-term political rhetoric. Even the market has figured that all out in less than 48 hours. Gold will be a dead duck in such an environment.

     

    P.S. The link I provided goes directly to Ycharts, just as it shows in the link and just as I have tested it it, now. Going to my past muses might prove educational for you, though.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, appreciate the link, but it didn't go to anything specific and thus I would have to go through data of 350,000 equities and economic indicators to understand your point of view, meaning you sent me to something like stockharts.com and said here's my proof?

     

    As I said to you or someone else, the markets jumped on what Bullard said. Their is more to what moves gold than just the Fed, but the Fed is one of the pieces to the puzzle.

     

    As far as tapering, I'll write an article before the next Fed meeting and make a prediction then. Have to get through the debt ceiling debate first.

     

    And with gold being a "dead duck" with tapering, was gold a dead duck in the late 70's when interest rates were double digits? Who will come to the rescue this time as Volcker did then, and why is Volcker against QE?
    20 Sep 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Economic growth does not lift all boats. I wish I could guarantee that. But I can't. I went through plenty of hardship 2001-2004. But I prevailed.

     

    This is an investor web site. It is not a whining site.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,

     

    I almost have to believe that you engage in intentional misrepresentation.

     

    Fed does not buy toxic assets. They buy US Treasuries and top rated mortgage-backed securities.

     

    You need to stop the populist pandering. You are playing to this small investor gold crowd who believes in scapegoating (GS rules the world nonsense).

     

    To be frank, no sophisticated investors believe this nonsense about the banking/Fed conspiracy.

     

    They don't and I don't.

     

    Unlike you, I have the advantage of making money whether gold goes up or down. All I need in volatility and the small investors guarantee it.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • This is an investor web site. Take your complaints to your local Tea party affiliate.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • DE:

     

    Oy! If you just type in any word in Ycharts, e.g., retails ales, auto sales, you can bring up any chart with one more click. Sorry if that was too taxing. I don't think you want to see them, anyway.

     

    Inflation went nuts in the late '70's because of two main factors: 1) a large imbalance between wage-led demand and global production capacity, and 2) because of Nixon's insane wage-and-price controls, which merely postponed and amplified subsequent inflationary pressures.

     

    Now, what do we see? Lagging wage growth and massive global excess capacity. Perhaps, you can advise us where all the runaway inflation is going to come from? Things don't repeat just because you worry about them; they react to real-world conditions. Conditions are vastly different than the '70's.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • The reality is that it has been to invest and any fool who put money in an index equity fund would have more than doubled their money to date from mid 2009.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • So you hate Supply side economics AIP,big surprise there. Why oh why do you support this "Trickle Down" government model?
    20 Sep 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • AIP,

     

    You can believe what you want about what the Fed is buying. I have put the pieces of the puzzle together.

     

    As far as conspiracies, sorry, typical media trick to put someone in that camp and I won't allow it. I back everything up I say with data and anyone who reads my articles knows this. I don't ever bring up the JP Morgan, Goldman crap that others do, so why do you bring it up except to try and discredit by "conspiracy?"

     

    Volatility is great for trading. Thank God for it. As far as how I invest, how would you even know? I lay DUST as much as I play NUGT. F&G and I have had good discussion on these issues and we agree to disagree on much.

     

    In the end, time will take care of things. If I am early with my calls, I can live with that.

     

    But the funny thing is, most who disagree with what I write think that it's gold or stocks and nothing else. This is silly. I leave a full 80% to 90% to the "experts." I simply believe there should be an allocation to gold and I write about it with data that justifies my reasoning and wish these experts the best of luck.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Doug ,
    thanks for the nice words as usual, i dont remember getting personal so why the "personal ' touch" to your comments ,, I suppose that is all that is left in your arsenal but to get personal..

     

    rest assured PAL, i will be back to remind you of your statements.

     

    No I don't know that u are right about gold .. never have convinced me.... and sure wont do it now with your approach to world economies..

     

    You like dollars & gold both and you will explain ,, oh please do ..
    never mind - its more of the same rhetoric , care to mention another "book"-- "Mr. High horse " People that spout this nonsense remind me of the carnival folks that had the great magical 'elixir" ..

     

    Please write this down , as the fed scales down asset purchases and as rates normalize due to the improving economy ,, GOLD, my dear friend will be the WORST place to be . That is why there is 30% downside at the very minimum.. and please do not come back to me with these knee jerk fear spasms like we just saw in Gold and claim victory..

     

    Oh and its worthy of comment once again -- this is NOT 2008 , but oh how u wish it were so gold can go higher , but wait a minute gold didn't do much during the crisis did it.. Sure was good insurance except it costs so much , well not for long ..

     

    Yes i know you and everyone else that holds gold bought it much lower. but us poor old equity guys , we never bought anything lower than where it is today .. no we just buy & hold to oblivion,, NOT ,,

     

    but wait isn't that what a gold speculator does.. (cant use investor cause its really not an investment)
    Just buy & pray to the investment gods for an all time crisis..

     

    Best of luck with your "book" and investments.. Barnum & bailey were right ...
    20 Sep 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rapid improvement? Are you smoking weed? Company after company is laying off employees.

     

    The Cleveland Clinic just announced 2 days ago that they are paring their workforce by 3,000 people.

     

    Even the National Public Radio is reducing staff. Most restaurants are cutting back, most manufacturers are cutting.

     

    How is that a rapid improvement in the economy?
    20 Sep 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • smoking weed - No , just watching the various reports that have come out on the global economy ,,

     

    Maybe u have an issue with a mind altering substance by cherry picking events to make a case and statement for the global recovery..

     

    just a thought
    20 Sep 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • The Cleveland Clinic is the top hospital in the U.S. (in my opinion), so that's not good news . However, I'm hearing the same story from medical institutions all over the Midwest.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Very True. I used to deliver "products" to the Cleveland Clinic. I lived there for 10 years. BTW, those equity traders are like dinosaurs so go easy on them, they are oversensitive to anyone making real money during their recession. What they NEVER seem to get is that MATH is not MONEY !
    20 Sep 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, I just give back to you what you do to me. Don't pretend otherwise.

     

    How about a link once in awhile to anything?
    20 Sep 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Go back & read the original commentary ---- You read what u want to read and ignore the rest . Seems that is a pattern with those that wish to conjure up the next crisis... After all, facts would simply get in the way ...Over the course of our discussions here I have provided numerous links to you. The latest being the European economic numbers signalling recovery . Which clearly debunked your flawed thesis that Europe was imploding , I still havent heard a rebuttal from you on whatever happened to that theory.. & I wont because that theory was wrong .. Wanna talk about Japan again ?, shall i resurrect that link I posted after you said they were next to implode..

     

    Go to my instablog & comments here on SA , there is plenty of "evidence' of my posture on the markets there.. .

     

    http://bit.ly/ZuafPa

     

    But in case u decide no to be bothered ,please once again write this down,,

     

    "As the fed reduces its asset purchases,and as rate normalization takes place GOLD will be the WORST place to be .. "

     

    It's in my blog also :), along with what will really take place when the Fed starts to cut back on asset purchases. You'll find it quite different from the typical rhetoric spouted by the "crisis" crowd.

     

    Be advised it contains Bullish adult subject matter on equities and equally bearish adult material regarding the ownership of Gold

     

    Its Harsh , But its just the reality of the environment we currently find ourselves in as investors..
    20 Sep 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know where gold will be next year or ten years from now and I don't really care. Gold (physical) is an insurance policy and, like any insurance, you hope you'll never need it. The gold you are referring to is a paper derivative; valuable for trading purposes, but always priced in fiat currencies which seem to be in a race to the bottom.
    21 Sep 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Auto loans are mostly sub prime junk as are student loans. The debt ceiling is meaningless. The government will continue to spend and the Fed will monetize as necessary. The economy depends upon it. Without new debt, the Ponzi collapses.
    21 Sep 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • I would like to see a rapidly expanding economy. It would mean the banks are lending and M1 would accelerate. That would be good for my inflation hedges. In the meantime, keep buying the S&P. I'm long that too.
    21 Sep 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • F and G,
    Try looking at worldwide debt obligations (or most likely defaults) and unemployment to name just a few. If you can't see how badly this is going to end then "I honestly can't help u or those who choose to play in the twilight zone while ignoring every bit of BAD news."
    21 Sep 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Obama was re-elected because "those that choose to vote for a living outnumbered those that choose to work for a living".
    21 Sep 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja,

     

    I appreciate your concern about me and others who as you say cant see how badly this is going to end ,, But i'll simply say , My belief that those that insist (Like You) that "it" Must end badly are completely wrong..

     

    I believe i read here that back in Feb you said gold would stay in a 1550-1650 range and would soon break out above 1700 then as you stated "would not go but a few dollars below 1550"....

     

    Now we all make incorrect calls , it's part of investing ,, but i have difficulty buying your : "it's gonna end badly scenario " given your incorrect slant toward gold .

     

    But thanks for the concern..

     

    We simply disagree on Gold and the global economy .

     

    BTW have u seen the Reuters report that Euro banks are repaying the "crisis" loans back to the ECB earlier than expected ??

     

    Guess not -- maybe cause its good news.. ?

     

    Good Luck ..
    21 Sep 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • F and G,
    Where are the Euro banks getting the money when most of Europe is in recession? American in Paris can probably tell you the unemployment rate in France, and we all know how well things are going in Spain and Greece. And don't even get me started on the Middle East.

     

    My call on gold was before the "great manipulation" started. And if you believe there isn't any manipulation, why is JPM in the headlines every other day for screwing everyone and their brother for their own benefit? It seems they have two whistleblowers about how they're manipulating gold and silver. Don 't have the link, but as well read as you seem to be, I'm sure you know about it.

     

    The big banks have brought this country to it's knees at the expense of the taxpayers. What kind of bank packages mostly worthless CDOs, sells them to the world, and then shorts them? The answer isssss.... crooked and greedy!! Big banks should be broken up because they're still TBTF.

     

    We disagree on where gold is going, and short term it's anyone's guess. Those of us with common sense buy physical gold as insurance, knowing full well it will also become a great investment.

     

    Best to you in your trading.
    21 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja,

     

    From my instablog post 9/10

     

    One example on the global front is the current state of European Banks. (Remember how they were supposed to cause the next "crisis" ?)

     

    http://reut.rs/1adVwK2

     

    Lastly gold is far from an investment, its pure speculation as your last comment so aptly stated "We disagree on where gold is going, and short term it's anyone's guess" . That is simply because no one can know in the short run what "emotion" may move the metal.

     

    You bring no new issues to the table than all of the gold crowd has stated yet has failed to develop - - Greece , Spain, et al,, this must be in the gold bug handbook. Oh the middle east , unfortunately Syria dampened the gold parade as it didn't cause the next "crisis" , maybe next time ..
    Soon the gold crowd will run out of countries or will you just recycle the same countries over & over ..

     

    You forgot to mention the hallowed word "fiat ".. Here's a new definition that the gold crowd needs to memorize "Fiat" is a car,,

     

    Ah lets surely not forget the manipulation "card" ,. Yep except i dont hear that cry when gold rose $60 the other day nor did i hear those words when gold was 1800 ..... Believe what u wish on that front

     

    Yes you are on a different plane than me ,,one that i can not get on .. I wish you the best...
    21 Sep 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stuck on the ground ? Why do you only mention Gold as if the store of wealth is a bad idea? Manipulation is not just a 1 way street. What would be the point? As for your childish car name comment,they can be used in many ways like your silly use of "FIAT" How about mutual funds like "DODGE and Cox? I was in that with over 100k in 2007 before one of the few honest Mutual fund sellers explained to me why it was a BAD investment. They were too big to succeed.So thanks to a man named Adam BolesI I got out of paper trades in early 2008 before all your FIAT money went bad for a 5 year span. Was it because it's name was "DODGE" that I avoided your huge stock market crash?
    21 Sep 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Coins
    If this is stuck may i have the good fortune to be stuck here for some time..

     

    Gold - I simply call it the way i see the facts presented to me at the time,, sorry if i can't get your seal of approval .

     

    The fact that you rant on stocks from the 2007 2008 days , simply doesn't bother me,, its how u feel, good for you , It's 2013 .

     

    The reference to "your " huge market crash is comical as I watch the gold aficionados sit thru a bear market with absolutely no risk management employed simply because its viewed as "insurance" .

     

    My statements on gold & equities are what i believe -- and I invest accordingly .. if that bothers you -- so be it.
    21 Sep 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Dodge & Cox and the Stock market are just like each other. They are too big to succeed .
    2008 –43.31%
    2007 0.14%
    2006 18.53%
    2005 9.37%
    2004 19.17%

     

    So all you buy when you buy Mutual Funds is "Stock Soup" They do what the markets do and the indexs do the same thing generally .
    21 Sep 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Coins
    and where did i advise to ever buy any mutual fund - please show me the comment.

     

    I deal with Individual equities only ... as i have stated here on SA many times. U may also check out my portfolio which is listed here on SA on my blog as full disclosure..

     

    Bringing me into the same sentence as mutual funds is ridiculous..

     

    Trying to make a point that it is all inclusive of equity investments is nonsense,,
    21 Sep 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • This is the only reason Gold/Silver will continue down: http://stks.co/ajdq (audio) Deal Made: China gets cheap gold as reward for not pulling plug on Western Debt! ..and this can't last forever. Ultimately gold/silver will rise like a Phoenix!!!
    23 Sep 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stocks or Stock soup ,who cares . Where have you seen that I advocate buying only Bullion? I advocate making money in UP or Down Markets and not investing with Bernie Madoff types in order to preserve one's wealth.
    23 Sep 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Coins,
    all I have ever seen in your commentary is "rhetoric" -- there is never anything of substance that one can act on ,,,,

     

    now u want us to believe your now unsubstantiated claims on how u are making money in up and down markets.. Comments that belong in a sitcom. 
    You are like the guy selling the great "elixir" at the carnival..
    You sir should be the last one here to criticize someone's' investment opinions ..
    Best of luck!
    23 Sep 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • You sir are the greatest investor in the history of investing,but i'm still beating your'e socks off in your own challenge .And that's even with you keeping score. How does it feel to be bested by your "lessers" again and again? You won't admit when you are using "rhetoric" but you continue to project derogatory comments on anyone who disagrees with you. Stay with your dried up style of dinosaur investing while the rest of us continue move on into the 21st Century.
    23 Sep 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Steve wrote: "all I have ever seen in your commentary is "rhetoric" -- there is never anything of substance that one can act on ,,"

     

    You should get checked for Alzheimers . I had that argument with you months ago and you wouldn't admit that you were wrong then either. Remember?
    23 Sep 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Coins ,
    U sir are delusional , I have never been derogatory towards u or have brought personal issues into my arguments.. My comments were strictly my opinions on the markets, u twist things now to make a point that can't be made.. U didn't like my opinions and u decided to do the only thing you can ever seem to do , speak in generalities ,and speak negatively about my ideas and perspective. There is no substance to anything you state.
    My record here on SA is transparent complete with comments & dates.. When i am wrong i admit such...
    Please show me your brilliant ideas on the markets, your comments , strategies and positions on the metals and equities.. They don't exist ..

     

    But hey , finally u got the "lesser" part right ,, congrats !!

     

    I'll give u one last chance to regain what little credibility u have left here -- You were asked many times to state your views , are u buying gold now ? do u recommend purchase ?
    How about the equity markets where u are making so much money ??

     

    Up from here ? any thoughts on '14 I have stated mine and are here for all to review ..

     

    I don't expect an answer , there is nothing behind your non-sensical pied piper magic elixir u call gold.

     

    one thing i absolutely do know-- Gold is in a bear market .. Deal with it , and teach members in your fold to practice risk management..
    Instead of making personal and derogatory statements about me.
    
    23 Sep 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Coins
    Please show me the substance to your argument --after a while this gets tiring ,

     

    debating with someone that has no position
    23 Sep 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • @CoinsK:

     

    '' i'm still beating your'e socks off in your own challenge .And that's even with you keeping score.''

     

    You are managing a paper trading account of $100k.

     

    I would be curious to see how you would manage the same amount with real money...when you have to factor in stress and emotions. Also, keep in mind that we are (all) very limited with only $100k. You buy 2-3 stocks and that's it, no more money available. That's a very small account.

     

    Going back to the challenge...we are just warming up as the challenge is not even 2 month-old. Let's see how your strategy unfold in 6 months. It should be interesting.

     

    And by the way, Fear&Greed always bring interesting ideas and great analysis. Do you?
    23 Sep 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug eberhardt:

     

    " I am right about gold and you know it".

     

    What are you talking about, Doug? That gold is back to its September 2010 level?

     

    "Talk to me in a year and see where we are"

     

    Doug, it's because you are saying the same thing for a couple of years now and what happened? The market is higher and gold is where it was 3 years ago. Does it ring a bell?

     

    Whew...very entertaining to say the least, Doug. :-)
    23 Sep 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • @ Krustyman,

     

    471 comments and 7 followers. You sir must be the entertaining one. :-)
    24 Sep 2013, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt:

     

    " I am right about gold and you know it".

     

    Yes, we all know this! Gold is at the same level it was in September 2010 LOL

     

    "Talk to me in a year and see where we are"

     

    Another year, Doug? But you said the same thing last year LOL

     

    You are pretty entertaining too!! Eheheh
    24 Sep 2013, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty, you are new here to SA and only have spouted off about the gold markets AFTER the current dip in prices since your first comment in May of this year. So easy for you to claim superiority, backed by nothing and utilize the name of a clown at the same time. Some would call this trolling.

     

    Yeah...you're entertaining like a clown, but bring no substance to the discussion!! Eheheh

     

    24 Sep 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt:

     

    To claim superiority??? Backed by nothing??? Trolling??? LOL Are you doing well man?

     

    I provided you with so many good economic data (with the source) last Spring but you prefered to ignore them as usual...Tack did the same thing recently and you had the same reaction. You ALWAYS react the same way, Doug.

     

    " I am right about gold and you know it".

     

    "Talk to me in a year and see where we are"

     

    ALWAYS the same...

     

    Same ole song again, Doug. When you cannot face the fact you are insulting the messenger...what a great tactic.

     

    However, it does not change anything. You are on the wrong side of the fence and will stay there until the bear market in gold ends.

     

    So be it.

     

    For the record I have traded the precious metals bull from 2002 to 2010. But realized we were entering in a bear market after a parabolic blow off. At that time, US stocks were on sale. It was an easy thing to see in 2010. Please hang on, one day you will see the writing on the wall, Doug. Lol

     

    And concerning The fact that I am supposed to be new on SA, well I am not. I was reading SA before until the time I decided to participate in discussions because I was reading too many populist propanganda like yours.

     

    For a guy that is selling precious metals for a living...we could say that you may always need new clients, thus your bias on gold.

     

    Bottom line: compared to stocks and even bonds gold has been a terrible investment historically and the data are there to support that fact.
    24 Sep 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty,
    Congrats on your practice of risk management regarding the Gold market..

     

    Many would be wise to follow that advice...

     

    Best of luck !
    24 Sep 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Krusty, right...I am biased in telling my clients to "dollar cost average into their allocation" as I do in almost every article I write.

     

    Nice try.

     

    You insult constantly, so I just give it back to you. DIdn't ignore your data, but point out to you that Keynesian economic doesn't work. It can be effective short term, like we are seeing, and I have told you before I am dollar bullish because of this "perception" that it works and thus the price of gold could fall short term. But I have picked bottoms and tops quite accurately this year as well. All you do is talk about gold going down without predicting bottoms or tops.

     

    Talk to my clients who are very content with what I am telling them. Don't claim "bias" when I tell clients to not go all in as I have been.

     

    If you're so good at calling the markets, write an article for SA or start your own instablog if you can't get the SA editors to approve your articles. Then you will have something one can point to a year from now and critique.
    24 Sep 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • >It can be effective short term

     

    Define "short term" then, because that matters.

     

    >But I have picked bottoms and tops quite accurately this year as well.

     

    Can you point to the articles? I tried a quick perusal of your commentary, but couldn't find anything specific.
    24 Sep 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt:

     

    "All you do is talk about gold going down without predicting bottoms or tops."

     

    I did it twice. Search my comments and be my guess.

     

    "Talk to my clients who are very content with what I am telling them."

     

    Great! You may also want to encourage them to invest in the stock market. You may keep them as client.

     

    "If you're so good at calling the markets, write an article for SA or start your own instablog if you can't get the SA editors to approve your articles. Then you will have something one can point to a year from now and critique."

     

    It's not a question of being good or being bad. It is a question of being right and you are not. Gold is at the same price it was 3 years ago. That's a fact, not populist rethoric.

     

    And by the way, all my comments are archived so if you want to verify what I bought and I what I have sold, well...treat yourself. Bottom line, my interpretation of the economic data was right and the markets are still in a bull market. That's another fact. If you do not understand or do not want to understand that, well it's your choice, pal.

     

    The people that were right on the stock market (since 2009) are the one sitting on the right side of the fence, thus making money but are treated like dummies on this site. Hello Houston!!

     

    We saw a massive inflow into gold funds and ETF between 2010 and 2012, meaning that a LOT of people on this site bought gold and are now losing money. Oh yeah I forgot, it does not matter that gold is going down and down...as it is an insurance policy. Yeah right...

     

    If you want an insurance policy, hedge your stocks by writing calls or put. That's a better strategy.

     

    In a year from now the stock market will be higher. Do you know why? Because we have a gigantic wave of liquidity waiting. Yeah, put me on the record for that statement.
    24 Sep 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • dnorm...

     

    Thanks for the comment. The articles are self explanatory.

     

    Sept. 16 Calling the Fed Taper Bluff and What Gold Might Do Next
    http://bit.ly/196sABe

     

    Aug. 29; Sticking With Stronger Dollar and Weaker Gold Through End of Year http://bit.ly/15AYcRs

     

    July 22; Nice Run Up In Gold and Silver Prices - Expect a Pullback http://bit.ly/12dw1ca

     

    June 26; Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver? http://bit.ly/14bkOpZ

     

    April 26; Gold And Silver Dead Cat Bounce And More Carnage To Come Or All In? http://bit.ly/ZTixuq

     

    Does it mean I'm perfect? No. But for Krusty to say I'm biased because I sell gold and silver is rather presumptuous based on the facts above. Not too many advisors who sell stocks do such a thing by comparison.
    24 Sep 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Fear&Greed. You are probably the best guy on this site to know that I put my money where my mouth is. :-)
    24 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty, I leave 80% to 90% of one's portfolio "to the experts." I have said this countless times. Why do you think everyone who supports gold can't diversify or allocate? This is silly.

     

    I have shown I am right and you just say whatever you want without pointing to it. Your track record of comments here is from May. As I said, if you are so good, write an article and see if Seeking Alpha editors post it. You might have to give your real name though.

     

    24 Sep 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug Eberhardt

     

    "Why do you think everyone who supports gold can't diversify or allocate? This is silly. "

     

    Because the gold bugs crew is trumpeting the end, the implosion, the self destruction of the financial system. So logically you do not own financial related assets like stocks when you think the financial system will collapse. Simple as that.
    24 Sep 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty - are you serious?

     

    Just because I own an insurance policy on a car doesn't mean that I don't own a car.

     

    I own PM's because they are potentially a hedge against all kinds of bad things. If my hedge goes up 3x and my market holdings go down by 66% then my hedge keep me from experiencing the full effect of the 66% drop.

     

    I own stocks and bonds as well as PM's . I also have some cash. So if the financial system implodes, I figure I have some alternatives to days when there are no trading on the exchange, days when the banks are closed, or days when the bankers say my cash deposit now entitles me to be an owner of stock in the bank.

     

    Things are not so simple as you make them out to be.
    24 Sep 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty, which I have never, ever written about hyperinflation or end of times, except for one article I wrote about what occurred in Argentina. But you are right about most others who write about gold, and as to whether they only invest in one asset class is rather presumptuous as I said. I am sure some do only invest in gold, but probably most of those started many years ago at much lower prices and aren't really complaining.
    24 Sep 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • @WMARW

     

    Well, when I read the gold bugs talking about the coming implosion of the financial system, I doubt they own financial related assets.

     

    I think you get my point and I am not talking about car insurances here! lol
    24 Sep 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • @Doug

     

    Thanks, appreciate the links.
    24 Sep 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Wmark,

     

    The insurance and hedge u mention ,Gold for example , didn't seem to be as effective as most think. During perhaps the worst financial crisis we have witnessed the S & P dropped from Jan '08 (1378) to the low on March '09 (666) . In that same time period in Jan '08 Gold was 900 , in March '09 Gold was 892.. Unless you put ALL of your assets in GOLD at precisely the RIGHT moment , I then agree u would have stayed even.. I doubt many did just that , since the mantra is to have only a small percentage ownership in Gold. Having 20% in Gold and not practicing risk management gave one no insurance ..

     

    That is why I personally have a hard time calling ownership of Gold a hedge and insurance.. Also a quick note - the banks did indeed stay open and when i went into one i wasn't offered ownership at the bank during that crisis..

     

    IMO ,The only way to successfully protect yourself, is to practice prudent risk management in whatever asset u possess ,just as Krusty pointed out earlier when he saw that Gold was entering a bear market..

     

    Just some random thoughts to ponder..
    24 Sep 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Well Steve, your solicitation for investment advice with no link to any regulatory required disclaimer on your website is a violation of standards and may even be ILLEGAL.
    24 Sep 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • The Dinosaur wrote:"Please show me your brilliant ideas on the markets, your comments , strategies and positions on the metals and equities.." They don't exist ."

     

    I'm beating you on Stocks as well as metals .You're lesser :).
    24 Sep 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Yes ,yes i do and it's always legal,unlike Steve's :)
    24 Sep 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Doug does what he writes for a living. What have you written Krustyclown?
    24 Sep 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • F&G - the hedge I have in place is for an event that has not yet happened. So, I will maintain my hedge until I don't need it anymore or it becomes operative.
    24 Sep 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • I can think of a few things you can put where your mouth is. Crack myself up. Eheheh
    6 Nov 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Obama got the majority of the free-loader vote. You know...the ones that outnumber those of us that work.
    7 Nov 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • Can you blame him? He was promised 6 times the food stamps.
    7 Nov 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Correction: ticker symbols GLD, SLV, and $GOLD tumble. Precious metals as in "bullion" do not. Go see if you can buy bullion for the current "ticker symbol" price.

     

    Go, go!
    Don't take my word for it, but I think it is gonna be hard.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry, big guy, but the gold etfs and the price of gold are highly correlated.

     

    If the prices diverged, there would be a risk free arbitrage opportunity to take delivery and sell it.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Try to buy 7 figures or more worth of gold near spot price. You can't. There is a risk free arbitrage with a negative GOFO rate. No one is taking the bait because the paper market is collapsing. People could due a "risk free arbitrage" now and sell their physical gold, earn interest from leasing (negative GOFO) and buy the metal back with futures, etc yet no one is doing it. Metal is leaving the banking and financial system at a pace not seen since 2008.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • JB:

     

    This explanation reminds me of an old NY Jewish joke:

     

    Mrs. Cohen discovers that her butcher, Mr. Irving, is advertising lamb chops at $2.59/lb, a 30% discount, so she walks on down to his market and asks for some. Mr. Irving shakes his head and replies, "Sorry, Mrs. Cohen, I'm all out. Maybe, you can try Rothman, down the street."

     

    So, Mrs. Cohen trundles down the block and walks into Rothman's. She asks, "Rothman, do you have any lamb chops?" He replies, "Sure, Mrs. Cohen, $3.79/lb." Mrs. Cohen responds, "But, Irving has 'em for $2.59/lb., but he's out of 'em." To which Rothman, replies, "Mrs. Cohen, if I was out of 'em, I'd sell 'em for $1.59/lb.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry to burst your beliefs, small guy, but you can't take delivery from GLD.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Absolutely they are. Not correlated with physical demand for PMs that's for sure, that one remains very high with retail dealers still charging premiums above metal's spot price as they've been doing for many months.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • You can with gold futures and those futures converge to the spot price. There are plenty of arbitrage mechanisms.

     

    You guys keep dreaming up Apocalyptic scenarios where you become rich. Now you are telling me that gold is leaving the system ...

     

    A gold investor is an investor who tries to rationalize his irrational investment by dreaming up Apocalyptic scenarios to offset the sobering reality that gold can go bust like any investment.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Retail dealers have their own costs. Of course, they will charge above the spot price.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Unless GLD has amended their prospectus, very large shareholders can take delivery. Otherwise, GLD is just for traders like me.
    21 Sep 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • The stock market crashed twice during the Great Depression, with the second crash being the worst. Unfortunately, history will repeat itself soon enough. Buy precious metals!
    6 Nov 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • The Fed has created bubbles all over the place. Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, all bubbles. The Real Estate bubble didn't pop in 2008, it just lost some air. The popping of the Real Estate bubble is still to come, along with the stock and bond bubbles bursting. I don't know when, but it's coming.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • In the meantime, the road to wealth appears to be going all-in on mo-mo stocks like TSLA, YELP, etc.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • The trouble is that you have no arguments to support your assertions.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Stray,
    Your comment regarding the bursting of "bubbles"

     

    "I don't know when, but it's coming."

     

    Please incorporate that into an investment strategy for us.

     

    Thanks
    20 Sep 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • The trouble is you are a Keynesian who is blinded by your ideology. You trust all government statistics as gospel. Every country on the planet underestimates their real inflation rate and overstates their GDP. Some are worse than others. China, US, Japan, etc all in the same boat. All you guys are using the same Keynesian play book. Every single economy in the entire world is in one degree or another of stagflation, including Japan since Japan has not had lower wages or lower CPI during its stagnation. Japan has only has asset price deflation and they have a classic boom/bust created by their central bank and banking system (Austrian business cycle). If you listened to conference calls of companies doing business in different countries, talked to people who live in these countries and stopped believing every single data point governments put out you would realize that. The data collected is heavily biased. It's sugar coated and spun. Conference calls by companies doing business are more honest.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • All governments are putting out false data , but your data is correct ,,

     

    And u have more credentials than all of the central bankers put together.
    I got it now !!

     

    U do have one thing correct --conf calls by corps are telling us the earnings are pretty darn good.. last time i looked that tends to drive stock prices , but hey i could be wrong here also ...
    20 Sep 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • AIP,Your problem is that your dogma is more important to you then real facts !
    20 Sep 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • So,you are from the "Show them your Badge crowd" Steve?
    20 Sep 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • As a user of govt economic data for 50 years, I have had many interactions with the economists, statisticians, analysts, and supervisors in the agencies (BEA, BLS, and Census mostly) that produce these data. They really are straight shooters who do their best to produce accurate, precise, reliable data. They also are very straightforward and open about their methods, limitations, weaknesses, and their errors. I could cite a dozen instances where they have been open about mistakes and then corrected and revised their data. No, I don't trust all govt statistics as gospel - - I am aware of their standard errors, revisions, and weaknesses because the agencies are open about their methods and their strengths and weaknesses. Further, staff of these agencies make an effort to interact with the large community of data users and researchers, which is good both for the agencies in accomplishing their work and for us data users.

     

    One further observation: as in every recovery from recession, there is wide variation in it. The data show some areas/industries/ sectors/etc are doing much better than others. That's part of the reason why anecdotal observations are so worthless for getting a real understanding of what's going on.

     

    By the way, even non-Keynesians show respect that fact that Keynes pushed hard to improve National Income and Product Accounts. Prior to that, you had whole schools of quack economics develop because there was only meager poor-quality economic data available and also no econometric methods for analyzing the data. Without any understanding of the magnitudes involved, quack policy remedies flourished. Such remedies persist among those who don't know the data and don't know how to understand the econometric evidence.
    20 Sep 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • F and G,
    "earnings are pretty darn good"

     

    The biggest reason earnings are good because companies are borrowing money at low interest to do stock buy backs. I realize as an investor, you don't care how they do it, as long as it helps their stock. With all this borrowing and money printing, I just don't understand how you can't see that this is going to end badly. There are a lot of intelligent people out there with no common sense. Sorry to say, but you fall into this category.
    21 Sep 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • @Coinsk:

     

    ''So,you are from the "Show them your Badge crowd" Steve?''

     

    From which show are you CoinsK?

     

    The Gloom and Doom squad? :-)

     

    Speaking of dogma, you have a lot of friends in the gold bugs community that are part of that select club.

     

    Japan, China and even Europe reported excellent data recently. But it must be false information...

     

    The real news is the gold bear market...that's why gold is at the same level now in 2013 that it was in September 2010!! 3 years without any return. Niet...

     

    That's a hard fact to believe for the dogma club but sometimes reality is hard to believe...
    23 Sep 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • @Ninja Trader:

     

    Please educate us. Any data supporting your thesis? Show me how the big cap have improved their earnings only via share buybacks.

     

    ''There are a lot of intelligent people out there with no common sense.''

     

    You are absolutely right! LOL
    23 Sep 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ninja ,
    i didnt resort to derogatory or personal statements when stating the issues as i see them.

     

    it appears now that the only thing the frustrated bear crowd , can do is lash out with the type of comments you make.

     

    In the end you will also realize that your "bad ending" will be bad all right,, bad for those that follow the advice you advocate.

     

    What u perceive as the "end' , is the same ill conceived theories that haven't worked since the start of this bull run,, there is no reason for anyone to believe they will be right in the future either.
    23 Sep 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • This is JUST FOR YOU Krusty:
    Barney: "Let me spell it out for ya. Weaver is stealin' from his own store!"
    Andy: "Oh, come on!"
    Barney: "For the insurance, don't you see, Andy? He spirits those things out of the store, collects on the insurance, and then sells the merchandise besides. He gets double on everything!"
    Andy: "Barney, that's just plain nonsense! Weaver's no crook! He's a sharp businessman, maybe, but he wouldn't steal. He's one of our most respected citizens, one of our best church-going members - he knows every hymn in the book!""
    Barney: "Uh huh, that's just a front. You watch him sometime when we're singin' Leanin' on the Everlastin' Arms. He don't even know the words! He just moves his lips!"
    24 Sep 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • I'm showing how your ignorance has become the norm here Am I going to have to give you a link to show you what it means ?You left-brainers are all the same ,you use a joke to try to make a false argument and then when one shows you how that works ,you get all offended. Your ignorance is now on parade O' krustyclown.

     

    A Deputy stops at a dairy farm and talks with the old farmer
    who's the owner.

     

    He tells the farmer, 'I need to inspect your property for
    illegally grown marijuana.'

     

    The old Farmer says, 'Okay, but don't go in that field over there.'

     

    The officer verbally explodes saying, "Mister, I have the
    authority of the Federal Government with me!" Pointing to the
    badge on his chest he proudly says,* *"See this badge? This
    badge means I am allowed to go wherever I wish on any land. No
    questions asked or answers given.
    Have I made myself clear? Do you understand?"

     

    The old farmer nods politely, and goes about his chores.

     

    Later, the old guy hears loud screams for help and spies the
    deputy running for his life! Close behind is the farmer's huge
    breeder bull.
    With every step the bull is gaining ground on the officer. The
    officer is clearly terrified. The old farmer immediately throws
    down his manure fork, runs to the fence and yells at the top of
    his lungs.....

     

    **"Your badge! Show him your badge!"
    24 Sep 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • F & G,
    Stop with the sarcasm, you're not good at it. You speak of central bankers' credentials as though you're foolish enough to believe them. You do realize they caused this mess we're in, don't you? Because if you don't, you just lost what little credibility you have left. Corruption is a way of life for central bankers and politicians. You're welcome.
    6 Nov 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Sept data not good but Oct good maybe? Fed should institute a cone of silence policy. Its like watching a bad comedy act by now but very predictable , stay tuned for more statements and more .

     

    This is what Bernanke said less than 48 hrs ago:"You sound a little less certain the taper will get underway this year, says Jon Hilsenrath as part of his question to Bernanke. "There is no set plan," responds Bernanke "We are tied to the data." Bernanke at his June press conference left pretty much no doubt the taper was coming this year and QE was going to end at some point in 2014.

     

    There never was any set plan and markets know Fed is trapped. Fed is trying to extricate itself from largest bubble ever created without bringing whole thing down or creating a bond market meltdown like we just saw
    20 Sep 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Let's not indulge in hysteria. The US economy has in the past withstood very large interest rate increases without problem.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • But this time, Volcker, who garnered in the last interest rate policy, is against what the Fed is doing. So no, this time it WILL be different.

     

    Volcker: Fed Is Too Big for Its Britches "Two former central bankers, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, publicly belittle Ben Bernanke's goal of "quantitative easing.""
    http://on.barrons.com/...
    20 Sep 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • This is not entirely correct. US was running a trade surplus then still in the 70s on massive interest rate increases by Volcker. US was not running massive budget deficits AND massive trade deficits. The economy (private sector) was producing a lot more than it consumed as a whole back then except for the budget deficits from LBJ's guns and butter and savings rates were way higher and could sustain higher interest rates. People's wages were also increased by employers with an inflation increase in many cases without the employee even asking. Now, most US consumers are barely able to pay their rent and food bills and full time jobs are tough to come by. Full time jobs are rare and part time jobs are aplenty but cannot really keep your head above water especially if you have massive student loan debt, etc. Many people in the middle class have rapidly declining incomes and their debt levels are exorbitant and growing. Does the government data you believe in as extremely accurate tell you that? Americans are quickly turning into serfs and debt slaves. We have new technology, access to credit and other things that are allowing some benefits and preventing an immediate collapse, depression and a fast drop in our standards of living, but we are only given enough to keep our heads above water. That's about it. Upward mobility is becoming increasingly more difficult for many reasons.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • JB:

     

    Sorry, but the '70's were marked by runaway wage increases and excessive demand, way beyond all global capacity to service it. That's why we had the ill-advised Nixon wage-and-price controls, followed by runaway inflation.

     

    Now, the world has the opposite, massive underutilized capacity, coupled with greatly-enhanced technologically-aided productivity, which is why job and wage growth is tepid (not to mention, the Government providing disincentives for businesses to hire anybody).
    20 Sep 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Not hysteria to believe you can't solve a debt problem with more debt. You being an economist should know US economy in the past was not sitting on around $60 trillion worth of highly leveraged, under-insured ,cheap US issued bond debt of all shapes and color like we have today. Lets not confuse the economy with what happened in 08 which was not a GDP but a financial crisis. They did got that part right. GDP, "housing recovery" etc. car sales numbers messages are for the viewers and voters. They like those and have nothing to do with what I said as you well know
    20 Sep 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • AIP apparently can't comprehend the concept of the velocity of money.They "trained" him to not understand basic concepts like that apparently in his economic "hysteria" courses .
    20 Sep 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • j:

     

    A little dose of reality: http://read.bi/1bwh2NZ

     

    "...$60 trillion worth of highly leveraged, under-insured ,cheap US issued bond debt..."

     

    This really deserves a snicker:

     

    1) How is the issued debt "highly leveraged?" Is that mentioned just because it sounds scary?

     

    2) "Under-insured?" How would the debt be "safer" if it were "insured?" By whom, and wouldn't that just expose the insurers?

     

    3) "Cheap U.S. issued?" What, it would be better if the debt were expensive, high-interest-rate debt?

     

    4) Note from the link above, that the only debt increasing, as a percentage of GDP, is Government debt, which is, by definition, the safest to holders of any kind because the Government's monetary-creation powers are unlimited.

     

    Of course, in fact, you can solve a debt problem with more debt, especially when you replace to high-cost private debt with low-cost Government debt. That's exactly what has transpired over the last five years. One group has payment and bankruptcy risk; the other has neither.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Just show them your badge right Tack?
    20 Sep 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • ''Just show them your badge right Tack?''

     

    @CoinsK:

     

    Are you able to comment on what Tack just wrote or are you only able to say non related generalities to hide your ignorance?
    23 Sep 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • I'm showing how your ignorance has become the norm,Am I going to have to give you a link to show you what it means.You left-brainers are all the same ,you use a joke to try to make a false argument and then when one shows you how that works you get all offended. Your ignorance is now on parade O' krustyclown.
    24 Sep 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • You can expect big moves in metals going forward both ways According to the WSJ today Clive Capital out of London one of the worlds largest commodity hedge funds is closing/liquidating following 2 years of bad losses. In May Clive paid one of its partners $34M; might have something to do with why they're broke with that kind of thinking at the top. PS. Wonder if they're hiring. I can do that(sarcasm)
    20 Sep 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Too bad Obama wasn't up for election again, now. Then we could get a 2 point drop reported (w/no real improvement) and end QE. The metals will have to wait until Dec. now to explode when the Comex crumbles.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, gentlemen, the economy is doing ok. Many of you are using these message boards to pump political messages as opposed to discussing investment prospects.
    20 Sep 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Hey pot ,meet kettle ,both black.
    20 Sep 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Very well said!!
    21 Sep 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Fed spent last two months shouting taper(crushing bonds & gold). Followed by Fed shouting no taper Tuesday (lifting bonds & gold), Followed by Fed( Bullard) shouting taper Friday (crushing bonds & Gold). So much for a thought out visionary plan clearly delivered. Fed just voted 9-1 for the current no taper."Days of our Fed" is a great explanation of the current idiots leading the whole financial world. Dump the Fed leadership and hire Rocky the Squirrel. At least Rocky knows when winter is coming to gather nuts, his actions speak his policy consistency, and there are not monthly lying reversals . Fed gets a Z rating on visionary clarity only because that's as low on the alphabet that's available.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • dhouk,,

     

    Your comment :

     

    "Fed spent last two months shouting taper"

     

    Please show us the links to the comments where the FED shouted taper in Sept..
    20 Sep 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • The gains were given back due to profit taking by traders who got long gold, silver and miners before the FOMC announcement and also on manipulation. The tape is often (it occurs daily) painted. Normally the tape starts to be painted while everyone is still asleep.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • True. These big moves in metals seem to be happening after hours when most US based traders are still asleep. Ain't NYC moving it, London, Frankfurt or others maybe but not NYC
    20 Sep 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Every time the paper price is smashed and attempted to be capped below overhead resistance and to take out support levels is just another opportunity to buy more physical metal for cheap and take it out of the system.
    20 Sep 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • So...you guys buying today?
    20 Sep 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • >So...you guys buying today?

     

    I'm curious about that as well. No reply?

     

    At least Mr. Eberhardt has some skin in the game, whether you agree with his outlook or not. I wonder if these others who continually shout "buy!" are actually doing any buying?
    24 Sep 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • My only question is if the economy is truly improving and getting better than why did the Fed not taper?
    20 Sep 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • "My only question is if the economy is truly improving and getting better than why did the Fed not taper?"

     

    Good question. Maybe even they know that you can't raise a bucket over your head while standing in it,Ala Winston Churchill .
    20 Sep 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Awesome day. I believe gold is headed to 1000, per my instablog. Short gold.
    20 Sep 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Macro ,

     

    Respect your opinion after your last great call on the metal..

     

    I'll check it out
    20 Sep 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Back in this morning on the India rate hike. Was'nt sure for a day or so how high we might bounce.

     

    Taper talk has nothing to do with it -- extremely weak handed longs + India trying to get inflation under control. I have huge conviction on this trade.

     

    Please. Someone buy the dip in gold. This has a long, long way to fall. Just imagine what might happen to gold if the US dollar rallied! (or when).
    20 Sep 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Another great day to trade . Trade FRN's for real money ! All day long!
    20 Sep 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • It's hysterically funny to read that gold pundits have so precisely figured out when and by how much gold will come down. The absurd logic utilized, which could be appreciated on all financial media, is primarily derived from the fact that according to central banks, inflation is non existent. In reality, we are permeated and slowly succumbing to it, just like a frog who doesn't realize that he's swimming in an ever hotter container that will eventually cause his demise. Energy is higher, construction cost is higher, food is higher, etc., etc. People, wake up!
    21 Sep 2013, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • $1200. Coming again. Fed Chair Ben knows when to call it quits. If thins were picking up.
    The taper would have started.
    Government shut down, go for it.
    Only trouble is Congress will still get payee.
    Washington is full of looooooosers.
    21 Sep 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • We have had our typical 5 year economic expansion following 2008. Now the odds would be for a contraction. except the Fed is all tapped out . Meanwhile we may get a further US downgrade following all the budget /debt-ceiling acrimony.
    All this spells Dollar weakness to me. Big time. The nightmare for the Fed would be a collapsing Dollar, higher bond yields and a slowing economy. What will they do then? More QE? More "guidance" ( hehehe). Huh?
    I expect this Dollar weakness ( DXY below 80) will trigger a 1970s style rush for hard assets.
    21 Sep 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • If we are heading for a stagflationary type scenario - with a weaker Dollar, slowing economy and rising bond yields, stocks will do poorly, Bonds obviously will be toxic and zero yielding cash will be losing purchasing power rapidly. Where do you keep your wealth?
    21 Sep 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • RSO55,

     

    1970's inflation rate by year starting with 1970

     

    5.7, 4.4 , 3.2, 6.2, 11, 9.1 ,5,8 ,6.5, 7.6, 11.3,

     

    Dont see any '70's style rush to hard assets , this time around.

     

    Nor can I envision your other "assumptions"
    21 Sep 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Hard to "envision" anything with tunnel vision.
    21 Sep 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • NT:

     

    Isn't it just amazing how the "dummies" are making money, yet the really "smart" people, who just know how it all really works, aren't?

     

    Maybe, it's just better to be deaf and dumb. Apparently, having such brilliant insights about the future isn't very profitable.
    21 Sep 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • If one uses the same calculation and methodology that was used pre-1980, the CPI is currently growing at about 9-10%. ( look at the shadowstats website for more details). This puts us at about 1975-1976 - interestingly also when gold bottomed before going up 8X!!

     

    If you look at a really long term chart of the Dollar index - going back about 20 years - it does not take a wild leap of imagination to see the Dollar index breaking down here. Its gone from 120 in 2001 to about 80 now and if it breaks below about 74 it will be in new territory.
    This QE stuff has been going on for 4 years. And so far nothing really bad ( ie. High Inflation etc) has happened. It does not mean that pressures are not building up . It is after all a totally new thing this extraordinary QE thing - the markets have no prior experience of it - so there is no "standard response". Therefore there is a risk of a sudden breakdown - a regime change in the markets - as focus turns to the really extraordinary monetary mischief that has been played on us.
    21 Sep 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Whats "profitable" or not will only be known over long periods . I certainly knew a lot of "deaf and dumb" true believers who were very "profitable " in the late 1990s - only to lose everything and then some in the 2001-2002 crash. Most hedge funds are not yet back to their 2007 peak levels - but Iam sure they are all viewed as being "very profitable" over the past 4 years - even if underperforming the indices.
    I dont believe its ever better to be deaf and dumb. On the otherhand, going with the crowd, while psychologically pleasing and temporarily "profitable" often results in catastrophically bad long term results.
    21 Sep 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • RS:

     

    Those that constantly forecast and plan for calamity --and, there are plenty of them who do it unwaveringly -- never make any money. Sometimes, I think one the major concerns that successful investors need worry about is the future necessity of supporting all the other people, who never figured it out.
    21 Sep 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • ''Isn't it just amazing how the "dummies" are making money, yet the really "smart" people, who just know how it all really works, aren't?''

     

    @Tack:

     

    Well said. What could we do? We are the losers...for almost five consecutive years! lol
    23 Sep 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • A young man asked an old rich man how he made his money.
    The old guy fingered his worsted wool vest and said, "Well, son, it was 1932. The depth of the Great Depression. I was down to my last nickel.
    I invested that nickel in an apple. I spent the entire day polishing the apple and, at the end of the day, I sold the apple for ten cents. The next morning, I invested those ten cents in two apples. I spent the entire day polishing them and sold them at 5:00 pm for 20 cents. I continued this system for a month, by the end of which I'd accumulated a fortune of $1.37.

     

    "Then my wife's father died and left us two million dollars..."
    24 Sep 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Krusty,
    Took you that long to recover your losses, huh? Not as smart as I thought, and I didn't credit you as being smart in the first place.

     

    Goldbugs prepare for the future and most trade equities also. When this all goes down, I presume you, Tack, and F & G will disappear as you won't be able to save face.
    6 Nov 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • NT:

     

    You'd think from your commentary that anybody who made a bundle on the upside has never seen a downturn. Personally, I've been investing for over 40 years, and one can examine F&G's bio picture and see he's been around the block, too. We've seen, lived through and managed money during more varied economic conditions and market panics than you'd care to count. I suspect we'll be around, and our "faces" will be intact.
    7 Nov 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Strangely, tapering isn't so bad for precious metals, especially if it destabilizes the dollar as well as foreign currencies. If tapering leads to clarity that there is insufficient US Treasury demand to support US debt, there may be a rush to precious metals. And if inflation leads to tapering by the Federal Reserve a general rush to commodities will ensue.

     

    The standard if liquidity is added then gold will rise and vice versus is not correct. QE 3 was decidedly bad for gold even though it added liquidity because it helped siphon assets into stocks and real estate. The ending of this will pull the rug out from under both these "protected asset classes" which calls into question how legitimate those markets are, because without blatant central bank support a lot of money would not move into either of these asset classes.
    21 Sep 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • @ Moon Kil Woong
    That is a very correct assessment . And recently Obama showed his ignorance by stating that" raising the Debt ceiling doesn't increase the debt" Oh Ok please explain to me how MORE spending is good for food stamp recipients and stimulates our economy Obama.
    21 Sep 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • The current debt system of money where only a few can create as much money as they want and determine who gets it no longer functions in a highly efficient technological world where fewer and fewer need to labor to produce goods and services.
    23 Sep 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • C:

     

    Ok, tell us, oh sage one, how money should be created and by whom.
    7 Nov 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)