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American Capital Agency (AGNC): Q4 EPS of $0.99 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.15....

American Capital Agency (AGNC): Q4 EPS of $0.99 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.15. Shares -0.8% AH. (PR)
Comments (6)
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (4502) | Send Message
     
    This is a complicated report, I have been trying to decipher some of its elements. What I want to know is, will they confirm 2012 guidance or will the CPR increase further, and are they selling off high quality MBS' to cover the dividend?
    6 Feb 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • RobRay
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Although the quarterly dividend is reduced from $1.40 to $1.25, it is still an excellent return of 18% based on the fourth quarter NAV of $27.71. However, a dividend reduction is seldom well received by stockholders and AGNC was selling off in aftermarket trade.
    7 Feb 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (4502) | Send Message
     
    Earnings call is going very well actually.
    7 Feb 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • skyraider
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    maday1138, any additional observations from the conference call you could share would certainly be welcomed. Thanks, sky
    7 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (4502) | Send Message
     
    Their projected pre-payment rate for 2012 is 14%, but that rate for Q4 was only 8% and Q3 it was 9%. They also saw higher than anticipated repossesions. However it was all mitigated through their selection process, in that things could have been much worse. These were the symptoms of the miss. Their HARP MBS' outperformed their generic MBS coupons, which was unusual. Their forward guidance remains and they touted their average return ot investors of 35% for 2011. They expect the same this year, and for the rates to remain stable through 2014. With that, they expect that return to also remains stable through 2012 with no headwinds. The dividend was reduced based on market conditions, not selling of ANY assests. They retained .80 cents per share of profit in order to stablize the dividend. The competition distributes all of their income and must adjust quarter to quarter their dividend.
    8 Feb 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • skyraider
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    madav1138,
    Thanks for taking the time to provide the update. Sounds ok lets hope they are correct in their assumptions and forecast.
    8 Feb 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
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