Seeking Alpha

Early 5S and 5C sales may be 50-50 split

  • KGI's well-connected Ming-Chi Kuo estimates 3.5M-4.5M of Apple's (AAPL) 9M iPhone sales last weekend were the high-end 5S, leaving the cheaper 5C with 4.5M-5.5M. Kuo's figures are quite a bit different from those of Localytics, which earlier estimated the 5S outsold the 5C by more than a 3:1 margin. Localytics data is based on activations, says Kuo, while his are rooted in production.
  • Kuo says 5S supplies - constrained at launch - are improving, and he expects that model to be the 'main contributor" to total iPhone sales in the holiday quarter.
  • Shares +0.7% premarket.
Comments (17)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3990) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't activation be more indicative of sales?
    26 Sep 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    I would say so.

     

    (AAPL) probably produced more 5Cs as they would have thought that more people in China would want them.

     

    However, you have to activate a phone to use it so activations should be an indicator of sales.

     

    I'm with Localytics on this one!
    26 Sep 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • unproven
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Not necessarily! People are buying for Xmas gifts.
    26 Sep 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3990) | Send Message
     
    @unproven,
    That is a possibility and a good point although I really doubt people are buying them and waiting until Christmas to give them... you risk those people getting them anyway and then your gift is all but useless to the intended recipient.. well they could resell it for $$ i suppose...
    26 Sep 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Gary Bushwacher
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Did you mean new line activations?

     

    wouldn't account for upgrades
    26 Sep 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3990) | Send Message
     
    A phone needs to be activated regardless of whether your "upgrading" or buying new...
    26 Sep 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1207) | Send Message
     
    Both could be correct. if they were produced at 1:1, and sold 3:1 in favor of the 5S and then Tim Cook is correct is saying they "sold" i.e. shipped 9 million phones and Misek and Munster are right in saying then that 4.5m 5S and 1.5m 5C sold, leaving 3m in the channel, for an actual sell thru of 6m.

     

    Which is 33% lower than the number of 9m claimed by Tim Cook. He has a bright future as CEO of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters.

     

    Big players have figured it out and are selling, hence the slide in stock price. Retail investors, as usual, are hopelessly bullish on the premise "my teenage daughter and I both love our iPhones and hence this is going back to $700"
    26 Sep 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • redponydoc
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    They were SOLD, not SHIPPED.

     

    Phones in the channel were those shipped to APPLE stores, not retailers, and they are not counted in the 9 million.

     

    Actually, over 10 million were sold, as internet sales were not counted.

     

    (See Forbes article)

     

    Munster and Misek are lying; Cook is telling the truth.
    26 Sep 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • dbtunr
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    nothing changed from last year's reporting and the year before that and the year before that. 9M means 9M. I could argue some that were bought online and not delivered were not counted in that 9M
    26 Sep 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • rubber duck
    , contributor
    Comments (193) | Send Message
     
    Apple counts units sold, not shipped, like they always have. You must be thinking of Samsung.
    26 Sep 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • dbtunr
    , contributor
    Comments (562) | Send Message
     
    If Apple ships to a reseller like Best Buy, they do count it as sold. Same as in years past. If it is shipped to their Apple store or bought by an end user online, it does not count until delivered to an end user.
    26 Sep 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • skleiniv
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line is that none of these guys know anything...it's all just a guess. Just more chatter.
    26 Sep 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • redponydoc
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    APPL doesn't claim record sales unless they have record sales.

     

    Analysts like Munster who get embarassed at their magnitude of error make lots of claims based on things they don't know.

     

    Cook under-counted the first weekend sales. The doom-mongering based on different counting methods is total fabrication.

     

    We have come to expect it with this stock.
    26 Sep 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • mcss
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    everyone is guessing except Tim Cook. And to some, he's an obvious liar. i am holding 2615 shares of AAPL and so i am obviously hoping he is an honest man.
    26 Sep 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Loophole69
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    MCSS- you have over 1.3 million dollars in AAPL? What is your cost basis?
    26 Sep 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • sun2appl
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    How could Tim Cook be dishonest about the number of iphones sold? If he could just lie about the numbers without the board supervision or some kind official verifications, why would not he just shout out 11 million or 15 million? If anyone knows the true number iphones were sold during the weekend, it's Tim Cook, because he gets the data first-handed. It is just too ignorant to say that analysts knows more than Tim Cook, for god sake.
    26 Sep 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (408) | Send Message
     
    I don't care! I just want a gold one for under $10,000 by Christmas. This could be life or death situation, you don't know my wife. Apple said they are trying but will not guarantee.
    26 Sep 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|