Seeking Alpha

China Mobile poster leak suggests iPhone launch on tap

  • A Chinese-language site (translation) has leaked an image for a China Mobile (CHL +0.5%) poster advertising the iPhone 5S and 5C (AAPL +0.6%). The posters make note of the 5S/5C's support for CHL's TD-LTE 4G network.
  • One source tells the site sales could start in November, following testing in September/October.
  • The WSJ reported on Sep. 6 Apple is getting ready to ship iPhones to China Mobile, and Chinese regulators recently gave the iPhone a green light to run on CHL's network (unofficially, many of the carrier's subs already use iPhones, courtesy of grey-market purchases).
  • IDC estimates the iPhone only had a 5% share of the Chinese smartphone market in Q2, thanks in part to its premium pricing in a market where per capita GDP (in absolute dollars) is a little above $6K. Samsung (SSNLF.PK, SSNGY.OB) is assigned an 18.3% share, and local Android vendors Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), Coolpad, ZTE (ZTCOY.PK), and Huawei shares of 12.6%, 11%, 8.8%, and 8.7%, respectively.
  • Also: IDC thinks smartphones with 5"+ displays will account for nearly 20% of 2013 Chinese sales, and 50% of 2017 sales. Apple, which has faced growing calls to offer a larger iPhone, is reportedly thinking of offering phones with displays ranging from 4.8"-6".
Comments (30)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    should go red any second now lol
    26 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4511) | Send Message
     
    You beat me to it wigit....you stole my thunder....happy trading.....long aapl dis and tdey.....yeehaw!
    26 Sep 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    Long $AAPL via calls that I bought on the announcement of 9m phones sold lol they were up 400$ at one point now down 100$... I'm sure CM deal will push them down to neg $400
    26 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • synchrogeddon
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    I can see incoming downgrades.
    26 Sep 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • ShortSlaver
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    "...thanks in part to its premium pricing in a market where per capita GDP (in absolute dollars) is a little above $6K"

     

    What's the point of designing a phone around people who make a little over 6K/year? Why would Apple ever want that market?

     

    After the deal I'd like to know what percentage of users they have that actually have disposable income to spend on apps, music and other parts of the ecosystem.
    26 Sep 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • tech01x
    , contributor
    Comments (623) | Send Message
     
    There are over 1,000,000 millionaires (in USD) in China. There are a lot of people that are very poor so the per capita GDP is low. The misleading use of averages doesn't paint a complete picture.

     

    BTW, IDC, Gartner, and other research analysts have typically been very wrong when it comes to marketshare and sales estimates. Hard to use their research as the basis of any forward looking strategy.
    26 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • kimboslice
    , contributor
    Comments (1461) | Send Message
     
    It's inevitable that Apple sells a lot of iPhones and that Chinamobile sells them in China.
    If you have been to China or know any Chinese, you'll know that they are brand conscious. You will also know that Chinese in cities make money and have money. They also have generally low debt, unlike some of us here.
    It's the goal of many a female in Shanghai to have an iPhone, iPad and a Louis Vuitton handbag. The bag may have to wait a while for some of them.
    Status and brands are a powerful force. I saw Mexicans who had gone to great expense to get iPhones but would not pay for a data plan there. They still loved to flash their iPhone every chance they got.
    26 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1296) | Send Message
     
    AAPL - better get it while it's cheap! Once this news breaks we are almost certainly heading much higher. The best news of the week was the estimated 70% margins on the 5C and 5S. If Apple sells 60-70mm phones next qtr with China Mobile driving growth, we are looking at a monster qtr. One other point that has dropped off of the radar is the buyback. They will likely have shares below 900mm this qtr, and reducing more as we go. Figure out this year's earnings at mid-year '14 projected share count and you will realize that the YHOO analyst estimates don't reflect the reduction. They are counting on increased revs and flat profits, only buoyed by the buyback! If they add CHL, we are likely looking at 15-20$s a share next qtr, and even if they don't, I believe we are still a little above 15! GLTA!
    26 Sep 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Come FY Q1 2014, sub $500 APPL will be a thing of the past.
    26 Sep 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1296) | Send Message
     
    KIS, although you never know the future I have to agree with you because Apple is one of the cheapest stocks I can find anywhere, and not by a small margin either. PEs TTM: AAPL 12.08; QCOM 18.3; GOOG 25.4; MCD 17.96; BRCM 36.5; NASDAQ 100 21.15; Dow Indust. 15.93; and finally the S&P 500 18.56! Not only that, but Apple's dividend yield is higher than each of those index avgs! Finally, the 12.08 reflected last year's share count. If you run it for Apple's actual shares now, it is even lower. Investors have either forgotten the buyback, or they don't understand its full impact.
    26 Sep 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (754) | Send Message
     
    don't worry humble if Apple smashes earnings they will remember the buy back. It will be given all the credit:-) couldn't possibly be the products...
    26 Sep 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    IMPORTANT! Remember timing is everything. Apple and China Mobile will not make an announcement until iPhone 5S supply issues are ironed out. No sense releasing a product with China Mobile if you already can't keep up with demand. Look for a November release on China Mobile with a possible October announcement.
    26 Sep 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (754) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't be surprised if they began selling around Chinese New Year.
    26 Sep 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    January is a tad too late. I understand China Mobile has been out of the picture for this long already, but I don't believe they will wait until the end of January.
    27 Sep 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1296) | Send Message
     
    KIS, why not announce it sooner rather than later? If I were CHL, I would want to get the news out to my customers: don't even consider switching, we will have iPhones shortly. Maybe that is the purpose of the rumors? Of course, October isn't a long way off!
    27 Sep 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    I'd say because the iPhone release on China Mobile is highly dependent on current iPhone 5S supply and demand issues, China Mobile won't make an announcement until they get closer to knowing the exact date in which they can start carrying the iPhone 5S. And right now, I don't think Apple even knows when the iPhone 5S supply and demand issues will settle down.
    27 Sep 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • chiptanis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    My own observations on a recent cruise aboard Oasis of the Seas (largest (-6") cruise ship in the world...
    Not a cheap cruise by any measure... Many many Chinese travelers..
    Given that the cruise cost alone was high and they had to pay for airfare was very expensive and they all had iphones, I think the future is great for Apple in China..
    It is the 1st cruise I have ever been on (15+) where they made announcements at the Captain's dinner in both English and Chinese.. I think that says something all by itself
    26 Sep 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Nice. Thanks for the heads up on your observation. When all the major Chinese CEOs / Executives also carry around iPhones, I think that also says something...
    27 Sep 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • lBubbaC
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    1. Even 5C iphones are too expensive for Chinese Mobile users.
    2. Chinese consumers prefer cheap disposable phones and are not big on Apple regardless of the tripe you read here.
    3. China Mobile is controlled by the Chinese government which does not want foreign phones sold for use on their network.
    4. Any iphone sales would not be subsidized by China Mobiie so Apple would have to lower the selling price and this would cut into margins.
    5. Apple could not get enough supply to service the Chinese market.
    6, Profits from Chinese Mobile sales of iphone are already priced into Apple shares.
    FINALLY, the touch ID system cannot be used with chopsticks by Chinese consumers with dirty hands who want to shop during lunch.
    26 Sep 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • ewmpsi
    , contributor
    Comments (1410) | Send Message
     
    Something that is being lost in the China shuffle is the U.S., there is a staggering number of iPhone 4S users who have chosen not to upgrade to an iPhone 5 and now aren’t upgrading to iPhone 5S or 5C either; they’ve chosen to update to IOS7 instead (and not all of them are happy with that pairing).

     

    Since the U.S. is the smartphone trendsetter at the moment, shouldn’t there be at least a small amount of concern that the U.S. is starting to (IMO) fade with obsession concerning Apple and also fatigue of Smartphones (at the high end)? Any success in China could end up being replacement for sales lost in the U.S.

     

    Yes, Apple may go to the moon again but I’d wait to see if there’s going to be a “Cupertino…we have a problem…” message at earnings before investing in moon rocks.
    26 Sep 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (754) | Send Message
     
    where is your evidence of any of this? Those who got a 4s in 2011 are now due for an upgrade. They weren't last year. This is vital.
    26 Sep 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
     
    all six of your points are false. and the last comment about dirty hands is especially offensive. Get some education and some manner before you post any more stuff and stop embarrassing yourself.
    26 Sep 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Bugsyjack
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    What's wrong with you, man?
    26 Sep 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Stating that anything is priced into any stock is the wrong way to go about investing. Looks like the blind is still leading the blind out there...
    27 Sep 2013, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    @ewmpsi - Sales lost in the US? Where do you come up with this garbage? Ah... denial. That's Step #1, bud.
    27 Sep 2013, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Covingtonium
    , contributor
    Comments (395) | Send Message
     
    And there you have it folks. Professional analysis.
    27 Sep 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • ewmpsi
    , contributor
    Comments (1410) | Send Message
     
    Apple's Pattern of Rip-Offs Forces Customers to Buy New or Pay Up
    http://bit.ly/1fNaYki

     

    With each date you ask her out on, the bill keeps getting more expensive, you can marry her or you can ask another girl out. In the U.S. we’re seeing more people date the biker-chick "Android"; she likes fries and shakes; rather than the prom queen "Apple" who likes caviar and champagne.
    27 Sep 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • trollipop
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    The poster looks like it has been photoshopped. Very poor quality. Or maybe that's just Chinese posters in general.
    26 Sep 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3927) | Send Message
     
    trollipop- I thought the same thing when I saw it... looks like some high school whiz kid put it together... but I'm not acquainted with chinese adverts so it could be the real deal...
    27 Sep 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4048) | Send Message
     
    Makes sense (true or not true) from a timing perspective, China Mobile has to finish 4G coverage in important areas first.

     

    If not late 2013, then 2014.
    27 Sep 2013, 07:20 AM Reply Like
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