Seeking Alpha

Treasury yields continue big move lower

  • This just in: Interest rates are headed lower. The 10-year Treasury's 5 basis point dip today to 2.60% brings the yield down 40 basis points since touching 3% earlier this month. The 2-year yield - which touched more than a 2-year high of 0.52% just after Labor Day - has returned to 0.33%. Making the biggest move is the 5-year note - down nearly 50 basis points since September 5th to 1.38%.
  • Last week's non-taper is a factor, but yields were sliding well before that. Jeff Gundlach finds it hard to believe Ben Bernanke is going to initiate a taper just ahead of his exit from the central bank - wait till next year, he says. Jim Grant never bought that the taper was coming in September and - like Gundlach - doesn't expect it happening in 2013. "The Fed believes that it is in charge," he quips. It believes "it's Atlas with the world on its shoulders ... how can you protect against systemic risk when you are systemic risk?"
  • TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%.
  • Other ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBXSHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ.
From other sites
Comments (4)
  • Yorkville Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    I've been bearish on bonds since April which has worked out pretty well, but over about the last 3 weeks I've had to take off my US economic rally cap and reassess things. I don't think we're out right rolling over here, but the economy definitely doesnt have the same potential it did back in July. I guess thats what a few payroll misses will do.
    27 Sep 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Topcat
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    So of course I've gone long TBT (short 20yT) with this default fear (and if it happens and we get another downgrade, I expect jump in interest rates).
    27 Sep 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • The Long Tail of Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (749) | Send Message
     
    So much for yields zooming higher. Yeah, we've put in the lows in our lifetime or, I see the 10yr yield at 4% next year. Everyone was so goddam sure the 30 year bull market in bonds was over. So important to know it was time to get out of bonds. Please!
    27 Sep 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Flod
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the Basic Tech Analysis of TBT(Yahoo-finance) there is in sept. a clear sales-signal (5-day MA crossing downwards the 50-day MA). We also see that round 80 is the top of TBT. So I think that tapering is not yet in close development.
    28 Sep 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector