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Sterne Agee: No back-to-school boost for PCs this year

  • "We believe back to school PC demand has been virtually absent," says Sterne Agee's Vijay Rakesh in a critical note on Intel (INTC). Moreover, Sterne thinks high inventories and weak demand are pointing to the absence of a holiday season sales boost (normally 5%-7%) as well.
  • Rakesh now sees PC sales falling 10.7% Y/Y in Q4, worse than a prior forecast for a 9.6% drop. He also questions the ability of smartphone/tablet CPU sales to offset declining PC CPU sales for Intel, given notebook processors typically sell for several times as much as their mobile counterparts. Oddly enough (given Nokia's limited smartphone share), Rakesh also suggests the Microsoft-Nokia deal is a negative for the chip giant.
  • In August, IDC lowered its 2013 PC shipment growth forecast to -9.7% from a prior -7.8%. The firm estimates PC shipments fell 11.4% Y/Y in Q2 (Gartner is at 10.9%), and has predicted tablet shipments (aided by seasonality) will exceed PC shipments in Q4.
  • Other PC industry names in the crosshairs: MSFT, HPQ, AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, LNVGY.PK.
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Comments (11)
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    You can also look at from the perspective of tablets taking share from PCs. This is why MS has to be in this space. Tablets are shoing slower growth so there will be some sort of equilibrium I imagine. Even Macbook sales took a 15% decline in y/y numbers but nobody says anything about that because it wont get as many headlines.
    30 Sep 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8576) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Although I regard MSFT as dead money and non-investment story, it should indeed be noted that Apple's PCs and laptops take an equal downwards hit.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (1555) | Send Message
     
    The only tablet that a college student can use has to be windows based, Ipad,ect cannot open PPT presentations and other office documents.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    Andreas Hopf,

     

    What do you know of investing, what about MS beta?
    1 Oct 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • peteralt
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    still fail to understand why consumers don't embrace Microsoft Surface Tablet with Office built in...you can't do your work on an Ipad no matter how many blogging articles are written trying to convince you otherwise...so how the heck are people doing their work? not on a smartphone either...I guess so many people are now hanging on to their laptops that are 3-5 year's old because they work fine so Ipads are the entertainment piece for the household working with old laptop/desktops. As computers age I think they will turn to more portable Windows tablets and that will start the rebirth era....
    30 Sep 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • tech01x
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    The Surface has not reached version 3.0 and therefore has serious problems like most Microsoft 2.0 products. At the moment, Windows 8 is a UI disaster and there is a distinct lack of touch oriented software. The overall design is a mishmash of touch and non-touch. Maybe by 3.0 these problems will get solved by both Micrososft and 3rd parties. 14nm x86 chips would help, but Microsoft has never been a strong software designer.
    1 Oct 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    You can do your all your hw needs on the IPhone, all you got to do is use the magnify glass app from our apps store with ! million apps which you only use 10 of by the way. Apple's got the best magnify glass app on the market that you can see how much money your wasting on an expensive toy. Come on and line up in this ridiculous long line of another 100 suckers so we can sell you some toys from our toy store.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • LeeGuru
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Kids are not going to do real math or writing term papers on Tablet toys.
    30 Sep 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (1555) | Send Message
     
    If they want to watch the professor's pp presentation from their dorm room rather than go to class only on a WP tablet.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • ATX
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    PC Decline doesn't really affect AMD as much as INTC because AMD has their console business and they are diversifying their business to cater the custom embedded devices.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • SnapperL
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    I think it is the difference between consumption devices and content creation devices. Most people do not create content but rather are just consumers of it. The tablets are filling that consumption role. The thing that is crazy to me is they did not do it for cheaper. The average tablet cost more than a laptop now and people are willing to pay those prices.
    1 Oct 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
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