Seeking Alpha

Fitch says gold rebound unlikely, gold miners in broad plunge

Comments (79)
  • StephanJK
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Fitch no longer believes in a 1200 $ gold price floor...so what ??? Important is your own believe...I think, that gold, and especially miners are damned cheap at the moment, given the exorbitant money printing in the US. I bet on a strong rise of gold vs. USD mid-term, if gold temporarily falls below 1200 USD, I don't care. With a bunch of miners in your portfolio, you will be the winner.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • sbeardsley702
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    I've been hearing this since 2010. All I've done is lose money staying long miners. I got out yesterday and I feel great about it. I might reassess if gold breaks $1200, but I want nothing to do with this sector at the moment.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • karjam
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    1305-$1310 is where China has made deal with BIS for their"buy-in",so Gold will get smashed down by BIS!!"
    1 Oct 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • The Long Tail of Finance
    , contributor
    Comments (695) | Send Message
     
    >>Fitch no longer believes in a 1200 $ gold price floor...so what ???

     

    You do realize that Fitch rates some of the gold miners (i.e. their debt)? Thus you might care what Fitch thinks, insofar as it influences the company's credit ratings.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tasos Galanopoulos
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    That's why a debt free miner like McEwen Mining Inc.(MUX) can rally on a day that Gold is getting clobbered. Invest in debt free miners that are profitable, and your chances of success rise significantly. Fitch opinions about credit worthiness has little impact on existing liabilities for such companies. I have recently established long position in MUX.
    1 Oct 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    You forgot to mention the 1% inflation rate. Ah, but that doesn't since God himself is a gold investor ..
    1 Oct 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ron Ryan
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Most of waht is happening is shorts shorting paper. Actaul physical stuff is being accumulated by gov'ts and central bankers. Beside, Chinese on vacation this entire week. Great time for Fed to play w/ London exchange
    2 Oct 2013, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    I had MUX on my Buy list until the news that Argentina, a historically bankrupt Country, is squeezing MUX on the basis of value of minerals in the ground, rather than mined ounces or profits. The country risk is probably equal to the risk of high deb, as I see it.
    Regards,
    2 Oct 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • brianngaibh
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    I think the paper gold by hedge funds manipulating the gold price. When look at the physical gold demands, it is huge gap between demand and supply. Also the cost of mining is rising tremendously some closing to 1,000/oz.
    When fiat money collapses, then gold price will be rocketing.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Mr. Ryan. How would you know it is a good time for the Fed to play w/ London exchange?
    2 Oct 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • mus
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    you will never come back in ! once you are out you are out , you need to manage your risk !
    4 Oct 2013, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • Illuminati Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (3283) | Send Message
     
    Excellent point and counterpoint by Tasos and sinedo, so maybe the best strategy would be to buy companies with no debt or country risk, like say PPP.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Sammyboy12
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    If I add to my gold and silver coins at new low prices, I know, with 100% certainty that my grandchildren will be millionaires. Bring it on!
    1 Oct 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (882) | Send Message
     
    what will $1M be worth when they're 60.....what happened to someone who bought an oz of gold for $800 in 1980? He's up a mere 50% in 33 years....goldbugs are cute
    2 Oct 2013, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    buyandgold???

     

    You can't cherry pick dates and make a sound argument.

     

    It's about long term purchasing power. $250 of dimes and quarters in 1964 is worth $4,337.40 today at current spot price of $21.87.

     

    25 cents would get you close to a gallon of gas then and can today priced in silver and exchanged for the scrip of the day.

     

    2 Oct 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (917) | Send Message
     
    The US Mint is reporting that sales of gold coins for September are really low (27 500) [1]. This is off of the 312 500 peak in April. This means that the last hope for gold -- retail demand -- has fizzled. People bought gold coins when prices dropped initially, but now they have had their fill and they have stopped buying even though prices are still low.

     

    Financial demand for gold is dropping and the electronics industry is moving away from gold. So I do not see gold prices increasing anytime soon.

     

    [1] http://on.barrons.com/...
    1 Oct 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • thrash
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    And if you believe any story from a US government department, then you probably also believe their GDP , unemployment and CPI numbers. Good luck with that !
    1 Oct 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • apberusdisvet
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    I would buy anything with a price 25% lower than the true cost of production, and you wouldn't? As far as demand is concerned, it has doubled in the ME and Far East in the last 2 years. I guess those billions of buyers don't mean jack in your world.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (917) | Send Message
     
    If it is true that gold is selling for 75% of the price of production, then the correct move would be to short the gold miners. Which is what I am doing (although I do not completely believe that statement of yours). The thing about gold is that very little of it is actually used up, so the price can dip below the cost of production for a long time.

     

    Regarding demand doubling in the middle east and asia in the last 2 years, I would love to see some proof of that.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • chcc
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Lol. Right, you believe Americans are the major physical buyers.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • mjwsb1313
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    When the dumb money stops buying it might be time to do the opposite.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    You are looking at the wrong markets Mr. Marlowe. The Chinese and India gold markets dominate gold purchases. Central banks and the rich are buying gold secretly to avoid propping up the gold price. These four listed sources dominate the gold market. Your listed sources are something more than anecdotes, depending on who you talk to. Try again. Or get a clue.

     

    Add to the above the beyond huge government debt nearly everywhere pushing the rich and governments into gold and precious metals as fast as they dare, makes you look really out to lunch; or very short on reality as listed here.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Brandond
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Buy on fear. Next thing you know governments will be confiscating assets and today's $1,200 gold will look damn cheap. Also, look for another of these great research houses to come out later in the week reiterating a strong buy and $1,500 gold. Do your own research, follow your gut and make the trade.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • karjam
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    (audio) Deal Made: China gets cheap gold as reward for not pulling plug on Western Debt!" CONFIRMED! LISTEN!!"
    1 Oct 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • 6141641
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    And the first thing they will confiscate will be our physical gold...
    5 Oct 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • cmuzzio
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Who stilll gives money to rating angencies? Useless and ridicolous guys!
    1 Oct 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Fitch has to set the record straight to protect what's left of their reputation. It only means they are no longer wrong, and now they can change their recommendation without looking totally stupid. After the mining costs and dividends are cut, Fitch tells us they will have to be cut. Thanks.
    It is the same as always: "Gold is dead" (again). $93 Trillion of unfunded Government liabilities and an admitted $17 Trillion of Treasury debt that must be serviced, isn't going away. The total tax collection of the IRS in 2012 was spent on servicing that debt (at record low interest rates). All other U.S. spending was borrowed money, adding to the debt. That debt can only be paid off with newly printed money (digital money created with computers is cheaper).
    The supply of Gold will go down, as marginal miners shut down to avoid BK; some will sell out or go BK. The demand for gold will remain or increase as inflation gets worse, so the price of Gold will recover and go to new highs, as it always does.
    Some big Gold market players borrow heavily to buy on speculation, and at least one big one bailed out this AM, temporarily roiling the market, and possibly causing other margin calls..
    Take this opportunity to add over-sold gold stocks, esp. any that are strong enough to keep paying a dividend.
    Gold coins are insurance, and you don't need to over-insure, IMO.
    Regards,
    1 Oct 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    As I have responded to Mr. Marlowe on the gold price and the gold markets, Fitch barely has a clue, is probably clueless. Also known as needless entertainment from Fitch.

     

    I and most people I know are satisfied to let any and all markets straiten Fitch and anyone else out.

     

    Fitches picture ignores the over riding China, India, Government banks, and the rich humans huge and hidden demand for gold, hidden in the case of banks and the rich.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Brian58
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    more orchestrated manipulation. Ironically, this call comes when gold is supposed to have legs.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • grange402
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    Historically speaking , dead wrong. It would be unlikely for gold and silver not to rebound.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    Apparently Fitch are among the "essential" government workers: no shut-down for them.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Daniel Victor
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Fitch are pretty mainstream,so on a contrarian basis their market predictions should be opposed.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • sa_member_756157
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    The market is forcing investors to buy/sell to profit. Wonder why? There is clearly a major reason/s.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • bfmil
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    Pure market manipulation to create panic selling to drive the price down further. Governments around the world aren't buying up gold for no reason. They're anticipating the devaluation of the dollar, which is inevitable given how much is being printed. It's economics 101 folks.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ron Ryan
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Just an investor. Mostly swing, sometimes daily.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ron Ryan
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I agree bfmil. The Central Banks have been buying tons.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Law of Thirds
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Stocks and gold are generally inversely correlated , market is shorting gold ...but for those long on gold...the market is in Sale!
    1 Oct 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • 6141641
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    With the massive manipulation, nothing can be considered correlated anymore...
    5 Oct 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Law of Thirds
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Stocks and gold are generally inversely correlated , market is shorting gold ...but for those long on gold...the market is on Sale!
    1 Oct 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • alxacid
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Gold will not provide income, a bull market with continuing equity inflation will. I've never viewed gold or silver as investment strategies to make money, but rather to act as a self-controlled savings account. I think in the short term holding gold will be less valuable than certain equities; long-term gold is a good idea.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Mr alxacid. Gold has never lost money in the long run. Timing matters even with long term investments. How many stock equities are over 100 years old? Maybe a handful. Of those, one or two are still competitively profitable. And you think equities are a better investment than gold? Ridiculous. Gold has always kept ahead of inflation in a big way, with manufactured short run gold market price drops to scare off the herd and get them to sell; allowing the shorting traders some side line profits. Get real. Some smart analyst is going to tell us how many times this cycle has repeated itself in history. My bet: somewhere around 100 times al least.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • capital pains
    , contributor
    Comments (212) | Send Message
     
    I am not a fan of the ratings agencies, Moody's or Fitch..But, I am a huge fan of the iconic Jim Rogers who recently stated that in his opinion gold is headed for $900..And, at that $900 level,he would consider some purchases. There certainly does not appear to be any sound fundamentals for buying PM's at this juncture.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    If you Google "Jim Rogers and gold" you get his predictions all over the map.
    1 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
     
    Man, I certainly hope gold drops below $1000. I need way more than what I have.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Illuminati Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (3283) | Send Message
     
    This sounds like a capitulation call that will likely mark the bottom.
    1 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Brandond
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Follow Zerohedge on Twitter if you want to see technical of how much manipulation there is around gold
    1 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • rseiter
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    The good companies are on sale. I picked up more Pretium today...
    1 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    This is the same Fitch who has diminished credibility for rating sub-prime MBS as AAA to keep its stream of fees coming in from Wall St and is probably afraid to downgrade the US because of fear of losing its ratings charter (privileged oligopoly license) from the US government.
    1 Oct 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2884) | Send Message
     
    Conviction short on gold here. Expect absolute panic selling on any govt resolution. 1200 is a chip shot and 1000 is quite likely.
    1 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    Yes, because all the information is priced into the charts right? LOL. China is buying nearly 100% of annual mine supply now all by itself. The chart does not reflect this.
    2 Oct 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Mr. Burack. Keep telling all these fools who are being paid to try to distract us from reality. The unwanted entertainment at this blog is just extraordinary. The appearance of a paid off wall street propaganda machine to manipulate markets and prices appears so obvious, it is amazing. There are suckers born at least every second and certain parts of wall street are counting on it.
    2 Oct 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • mako26
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    I hope gold and silver drop 90% I buy up and down etfs miners physical I bought some gld dec calls and slv today. if it plunges more sweet ill pile in more I made a killing last time on slw when it dropped to 18 happy hunting
    1 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (1820) | Send Message
     
    It was a great day to harvest some short calls on gold miners. I just don't get the gloom about gold or gold miners. The market is a roller coaster-you know those carnival contraptions that slowly head for the sky-only to drop like lead. Everyone screams and yells-but one always ends up at the starting point.
    However, some might prefer the paddle boats, where you just get in a little boat and motor around slowly on calm water.
    HINT: Sell tickets to the thrill seekers and the fuddy-duddies.
    1 Oct 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Duval
    , contributor
    Comments (2884) | Send Message
     
    Gloom....you're kidding right? More like breathless hope for an end of world scenario....the optimism still in these names....unreal.
    1 Oct 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Grove22
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    The 'PPT' were afraid that the US$ might fall below 80 on the USDX today so they came in this morning and creamed gold futures. Nothing new here! The end comes when the Comex changes their terms to all cash because they know they are running out of gold. They do not have enought gold to make it thru the December contracts so change they must and soon. China may also feel that its time for a higher price as well since there is no more physical to get at these prices. This is when gold goes up to almost everyones surprise!
    1 Oct 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • karjam
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Gold Plunge, Who’s Responsible & What’s Next? http://stks.co/dkiQ
    1 Oct 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    What plunge? One day doesn't do it. I'm waiting to buy, but Gold is stronger than anything else I see. Few on my Buy-list are that tempting, although GDXJ is looking attractive; hopefully, they can knock it down another buck or two, this week.
    Regards,
    8 Oct 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    sinedo,
    If there's one thing that has been plunging and that I expect to keep on plunging for some time, is the USD.
    Good for US exporters though, bad for importers. The US with its hugely negative trade balance should feel this severely.
    8 Oct 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    You would think the Dollar should be falling, but it's not, and I am distressed that I cannot figure out why, other than the Fed creation of $4 Trillion of QE in the past few years isn't entering the global market, for some reason..
    Here's a 10 year chart of the US$:
    http://bit.ly/oWmHa1
    Regards,
    9 Oct 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2723) | Send Message
     
    The dollar isn't just Fed or U.S. related in the sense it is a representation of primarily 4 other currencies that make up 90% of the Dollar Index and their own hell hole economies (Europe with their Southern States issues and Japan with their world leading Debt to GDP ratio that makes up 70% of the Index themselves and being the worst two currencies) along with England who just went through two recessions and Canada the best of the bunch.

     

    So "perception" is that the U.S. dollar is still king, no matter what may be really going on under the table economically or fiscally here. The Fed has everyone fooled. In fact, if Congress can somehow come to an agreement on the debt ceiling, everyone will think all is well in good ol America and that's what the Fed wants.

     

    When you price one currency in another, it gives you the illusion that one is stronger or weaker, but in reality, they are all becoming weaker over time when you buy anything; food, gas or pretty much anything else including gold. Emphasis on over time.

     

    I still think we will get a run on dollars in the next year or so. Remember, we still do have the world's largest and strongest military and it doesn't matter if you are Republican or Democrat, we'll use that military might when we, erm, "they" want to.

     

    9 Oct 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    The dollar is falling through inflation no longer widely published.
    Inflation reporters routinely now leave off food and energy, dumb as rock, but that is what they do. What else matters to 99% of the population but food and energy. The food and energy inflation rate has been double to triple the published non food and energy inflation rate for at least 20 years. This con game is rigged better than anything in history. It would need to be to get so far out of wack.

     

    The good news is most western people including the Chinese and India see it, can not verbalize it, but know the system is pooping on them; and go out of their way to avoid anything system oriented. Or use the system only where there is a clearly obvious advantage and then very selectively.

     

    Why gold and precious metals will continue to be the disposable income king.
    10 Oct 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tao Jaxx
    , contributor
    Comments (1273) | Send Message
     
    This thread is truly pathetic.
    Perfect illustration of the delusion that makes behavioral traders dig further when they are in a hole: it's all in there: the conspiracy theory, the "all statistics are fake", the ZeroEdge reference, the $ gazillion debt present value and finally, the "let's back up the truck as gold is cheaper than yesterday".
    Even gullible mom and pops or Chinese housewives have understood that their Spring purchases have made them bag holders.
    Not so yet here lol
    Mr.Market already confiscated a good chunk of their change, but they want the lesson to cost more. It will.
    1 Oct 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    Actually, China has horrible inflation. Wages are increasing rapidly for factory workers (albeit from a low base but wages have been doubling every few years for the last 7-8 years) creating demand pull inflation and then they import massive inflation due to their US Dollar peg. After the QE programs China had to massively increase their money supply to soak up the US Dollars. A lot of that money has been 'lent and spent' by their banking system into their real economy creating bubbles in assets, trillions in misallocated capital, etc. China has had double digit inflation for years over there especially in food, etc. When you have horrible inflation every year, the price of gold does not matter so much. So you really believe all the government data? Every single government including the US, China, Japan are all lying about GDP, unemployment, CPI/inflation, etc. Interest rates are being manipulated to keep them down.
    2 Oct 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    Are you a bag holder in China if you have to deal with double digit inflation every year and you are terrified of inflation? Gold becomes a safe haven at nearly any price in that scenario. People in China buy gold for good things like birthdays, anniversaries, weddings, etc and they buy gold for bad things like for insurance and to protect against inflation or a potential banking collapse there.
    2 Oct 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    I think I will be your fan forever Mr. Burack. Appears to me you have just provided the proof why not only the Chinese, but India, and why the rest of the planet with disposable income keep their spare change eye on gold and precious metals as much as possible. Why gold demand will always be huge. The huge government statistics con game is world wide and obvious to most trained people.
    2 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • richcarnegie
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    @capital gains:

     

    You say the 'iconic' Jim Rogers has said he thinks gold is headed for $900. Is this the same Jim Rogers who on KWN in April this year said gold was going to go over $1600 - and Eric King called it 'the greatest call in history' - pathetic statement from a drama queen there! He said gold would go over $1600 and then onto $1800 and up to new highs from there. Gold did indeed go over $1600, for a day or two, be fore it came crashing down to what we now know was $1180..
    So now he says $900, therefore he has a 100% window of correct call there, excellent, thanks for your input Jim!

     

    Bottom line is - no-one knows where gold is going in the mainstream media and no-one has a chart that can predict where it is going, this is because it is manipulated, by governments and their puppet banks who do the manipulating for them. So the gold price chart from the 70's-80's bull market that everyone keeps adjusting for inflation is incorrect as it was not manipulated to the same degree that it is now - how can you even compare the charts in this environment?

     

    Anyway... good luck to all!
    1 Oct 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • techgoldbull
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    how does $1,000 gold make any sense what so ever? How is that price estimate given, just a random number they come up with to scare people and inject fear into the market they seek to manipulate? If most miners have an operating cost to make gold of $800-1200 an ounce why would miners sell gold for the same amount they spent to extract and refine the gold, or in some cases less? Absolutely ridiculous. Gold could reach 1100 or 1000 but would only ever stay there for the short term, it makes no sense for the price to go lower than the cost. Even companies that successfully implemented cost reduction like IAG still spend 850-950 an ounce in operating expense. Not to mention most of the physical is being bought up in record amounts by asian markets, and as smaller miners go out of business future supply will decrease. These guys are most likely spreading fear so they can open long positions at their desired $1000 level.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • C-Alarm
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Until the gold miners GDX shows strength on its own, before gold makes a move higher, sell gold on rallies. The rest is mind games.
    Example GDX rallied strongly with GLD in the past 10 days on the no-taper news. But it did not lead or anticipate that sudden rally before it happened. It only reacted to the move in gold. So that rally ended in a day and a half. And that was it for both GLD and GDX. The same principal said stay short from last rally in October 2012 until the June climatic sell off. Watch for GDX to trade above its 15 day MA before GLD breaks to a short term high. Until then sell significant rallies in GLD and/or GDX. All the theories, arguments, ratings services and funymental notions aside, price action in the miners is key. The miners make the initial move on the up-side if a rally is for real and sustainable. They lead the way at the outset of the rally.
    2 Oct 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • richcarnegie
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    @techgoldbull: With your thought process, the many, many gold mining companies of the early 90's would never have shut down because the price of gold would always have been above the cost of mining it. They shut down because the price of gold was less than what it cost to get it out of the ground, do you think they were not trying to sell it? Of course they were, but they could not do so at an affordable price, so they shut their un-profitable mines. The same is happening here all over the world in this sector.
    2 Oct 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • mako26
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    blah blah blah ..its never going to get cheaper to extract gold from the ground ....I sleep well with metals in my safe, and slv and gld at these low levels.im patient piling up the hard stuff and trading in and out of the etfs...if it goes to 1000$ buy at least 100 oz quick.do not even hesitate ...it never will see that level
    2 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Andrewes
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    you know why so many people didnt buy stocks during 2009 low then they are upset about it til now and probably the rest of their lives? because things were bad at the time (hence the reason stocks were low). i suppose many of you prefer to wait until everyone loves gold again and many of the miners have doubled or tripled in price.

     

    just a reminder.. buy low.

     

    gaining wealth isnt supposed to be easy or comfortable.
    2 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Sammyboy12
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Just a few observations from an old retiree who hopes to have some fun whilst building a good nest-egg for his granddaughters (who will hopefully earn more in a few short years than he did during all his working years, if their university educations are worth the cost and time). I think you are correct, Mike, and state the obvious (at least to some of us) when you say that making the right investment calls is not easy. There are times, however, when an opportunity to buy low sticks out like a sore thumb and I believe we are fast approaching such a signal in the gold market. With huge buying of a comparatively finite store of wealth leading to a severe shortage of physical gold in the near future, it will be inevitable that paper promises will go up in smoke. Manipulation of the financial markets (of which there are many varied examples) can only be supported, by the lackeys of those who, mainly through incompetence and greed, keep twisting, ad infinitum, because of the fear of having to show their hands, for a limited amount of time. I'm sure there are many poo-pooers who can argue with great technical abilities that all this is just the meandering mumblings of an old loon but at least I retain some appreciation of what is truly valuable on this earth. I've never watched Big Brother!
    3 Oct 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Gold has few industrial uses and is mainly an emotional metal. Fear and greed drive it more than any other investment, and it lures many players into the "game" because of the size of the moves. It was down $45 early this week because some big "player" got a margin call, which just happened to coincide with the Fitch call, and look at the responses here. Gold was back up the next day and is acting as "normal" as it gets.
    Any "action" gets an equal reaction, and it was reported that two new levered gold miner ETFs launched today. You can buy one ETF and get triple the moves of gold, now.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Sinedo. BS. Gold ETFs move up as much as down or mimmick the market. If you want a roller coast ride, ETFs are for you; and probably very few others. Traders have screwed with gold since the dawn of the trading system, probably longer. Gold has always kept up with or ahead of inflation, with only temporary down spikes due to traders, though numerous. Industrial use of gold is proportional to the price compared mostly to silver and platinum. There are more than few industrial gold uses which are unique without substitutes, though small compared to the over all industrial metals market. Or gold is and will always be an investment. The large gold holders, institutional in particular, see it that way. And they almost never trade except on large upward spikes. Or all of the market levelers are in place to counter trader shananigans. So knock yourself out.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • sinedo
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    BS? Because I disagree? You apparently misunderstand.
    Traders have "screwed with gold" because it is not widely traded commercially, like Iron ore, Oil, or Copper, and it gives them much bigger moves. They do the same with small stocks where a few trades can change the direction of the share price. It takes a lot more money and risk to do that with stocks like Apple, big Oil stocks, or others that trade millions of shares a day. Narrowly traded, lower priced stocks move a greater percentage in price when targeted, and Gold, especially, gets a lot of emotional reactions from Joe 6-pack investors like us. Little guys scare easily, or buy above the range, when they get excited, so they love to stir 'em up and manipulate, every chance they get.
    ETF's move pretty much the same as low volume stocks, but there are fewer gamblers in them than in Gold contracts. Margin calls accelerate down moves, like last Monday's sell-off that got this thread started. It was over in one day, yet you can see how much excitement it created right here on Seeking Alpha Comments.
    Regards,
    9 Oct 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • TDWelander
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I am not a trader. So your trader insight has little use for me.

     

    Though, I try to read voraciously, including traders. I stick by the long term, what I consider, the realistic view of not only the gold markets, but markets generally.

     

    You appear to be letting other traders sway you from reality. Or are too close to daily trading and are missing at least part of the big picture.

     

    But thanks in any case for your insight.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • C-Alarm
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    If anyone is interested in the GDX signal mentioned, going into Oct7 if GLD rallies to break its high of the last 6 days or it does that on Oct8th, it should be a short term move and a set up for further downside action in both GLD and GDX. Why? because the action in GDX has not yet led it to rally above its 15 day MA. GDX needs to work its way to a close above that average before GLD breaks above its high of the last 6 days if there is to be a sustained move up in GLD.
    Just saying! and buying puts in that scenario.
    6 Oct 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • mako26
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    collecting gold and silver bullion is just fun for me I guess .I know itll be worth something in 2025 ..My stock portfolio is another deal entirely. I guess there are worse habits but I enjoy piling up coins and bars when the prices are right. I need another tax hideout my roth and 401k are maxed out anyone got any ideas?
    8 Oct 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • C-Alarm
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Like GDX said, be short GLD or GDX on Oct 7th when GLD made a 6 day high and GDX was below its 15 day ma. Stay short until there is a climatic sell off, a quick move to near the former lows, or GDX shows strength based on its MA15. before GLD breaks its 6 day high.

     

    Or speculate about manipulation, conspiracies or the funymentals. Which approach is more lucrative or personally satisfying is for each one to decide?!
    13 Oct 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
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