Seeking Alpha

Netflix flies higher as Icahn ponders his windfall

  • Carl Icahn says he hasn't sold any shares of Netflix (NFLX +3.9%) just yet, but that holding on to his sizable profits isn't such a "no brainer" anymore.
  • It's a rather grounded look at Netflix with valuation seeming to be outrunning the company's ability to grow profits in an increasingly competitive streaming market.
Comments (28)
  • Jay Schembs, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    Is that not a hint that he's a seller? Stock jumps 4%, makes sense.

     

    Bizarro Seinfeld episode redux.
    1 Oct 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • vandeley
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    I think it's pretty clear he has either sold calls against his long shares, or will be selling on the first sign of technical weakness
    1 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • cookieabcd
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    no question he's hedging. He's also probably buying puts for protection.
    1 Oct 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Gene Zlotnik
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Just learned on yahoo forum about existence of viooz.co... You can watch hd movies totally free. Just wonder how many sites like that around the world. This is a true competition to nflx. I don't quite understand what is so good about the model - barely makes any money at best, scared to death to raise prices or add commercials, facing unlimited competition - legal and illegal. Price goes up, no question about it, but it already did in 2011, so be careful...
    1 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • richernow
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I too recently stumbled on to Viooz.co. Couldn't believe the incredible selection they have there-- and it was FREE! Yes FREE! They have many of the movies that I could not find on Amazon Prime, OR Netflix (which i view for free using my sisters account). I wonder how long it will take for the whole world to discover this amazing freebie site, and others like it. Emmy Shmemmy--Netflix you cant hold a candle to what Viooz.co offers.
    1 Oct 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Sakelaris
    , contributor
    Comments (1627) | Send Message
     
    Is it a pirate site? If not, how does it stay in business, given the cost of streaming content?
    2 Oct 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • DISDIS631
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    IF he sells his stake, will the whole thing come tumbling down ?
    1 Oct 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4281) | Send Message
     
    it depends if there is a willing buyer to purchase his entire holdings....if he were to put all those shares on the market the conventional way, the huge supply would not be able to be absorbed, and the share price could easily fall $100 or more before he has exhausted his selling
    1 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4281) | Send Message
     
    why would he say this? it can only hurt is ability to sell his shares.

     

    would it be better to say nothing...why tip your hat that you might begin to sell?
    1 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Jason Burack
    , contributor
    Comments (1814) | Send Message
     
    Netflix is a bubble. The valuation is way overvalued. They don't even own their own content. It's all licensed and huge renewals are coming up over the next few years yet the stock is priced like it is already as good as HBO. HBO owns all its content and they make huge bucks selling Game of Thrones related items, etc. No idea when Neftlix has a huge correction. It could go a lot higher first for all I know. I've said for many months the best way to play this guaranteed future volatility is a long straddle. They also almost never add new American movies to their online library. I use the service almost weekly and they don't even add new American movies monthly.
    1 Oct 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • richernow
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    From what I've seen on the competitors Netflix sucks. I wouldn't pay 8 cents a month much less 8 bucks for their limited choices. What are the current users watching and paying for? Maybe I missed the memo.
    1 Oct 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tvaddic
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    Go buy a DVD, pay 1 month of cable, or go to the movies, all 3 of these options cost more than 1 month of Netflix, in the case of cable nearly one year of Netflix is cheaper than one month of cable.
    1 Oct 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • happyguy
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    But Netflix has nothing to watch, I subscribed for one month and was shocked. There's nothing there. They don't have any choice of foreign or other movies. Why spending money?
    2 Oct 2013, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • Sakelaris
    , contributor
    Comments (1627) | Send Message
     
    There is a lot there on Netflix, especially if you add the excellent Netflix DVD service to the mix.

     

    Some people do not like to search.

     

    I like searching and I find interesting stuff that way. Others like having the cable folks pick a hundred options that would be available at one point; too much choice overwhelms them.
    2 Oct 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3066) | Send Message
     
    When Carl tweets market listens
    1 Oct 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • soldierpri
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    After today's move, I wouldn't be surprised if the the price continued to rise in the very short term due to short covering. I would expect a recursion toward the 20 dma in the next week though.

     

    I wouldn't expect Icahn to flood the market with his shares. He understands supply and demand...he will sell to maximize his profits.

     

    With today's upgrade to a $350+ value, the Netflix cult might continue to buy it upward...although I agree with Jason that its a bubble and one day the cult with realize its leader is nuts.

     

    This stock has been one of the more fun to watch over the last 6 months...should continue to provide entertainment.
    1 Oct 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (2118) | Send Message
     
    The filing will be out in the next day or so, he's likely sold and gone short - or wrote a ton of expensive out of the money calls and is trying to keep the stock steady.
    1 Oct 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • richernow
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Hey Quoth: "Filing?" What filing are you talking about? Ichan??
    1 Oct 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • rharr04
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Does iCahn have to file anything? I didn't think he owned that much stock.

     

    How would he collar himself given the volume required? It would show up in the options market really quickly!
    4 Oct 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9232) | Send Message
     
    A $23B company that is essentially Blockbuster over Ethernet/Wi-Fi.
    1 Oct 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (2118) | Send Message
     
    Wrong. Blockbusters problem was that it WASN'T over ethernet and that it was based on mediums that were on their way out. Netflix, although probably not worth $23 bil I'll concede, is anything but - they're focusing on streaming, where is what the standard will be - for video games, movies, TV, etc. in just five years or so.
    1 Oct 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tvaddic
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    Blockbuster was a good business initially they just got greedy, made horrible mistakes and never took Netflix seriously. Also it never looked forward, something Netflix has done well. Netflix wanted to partner and even suggested being sold to them for 50 Million, that was probably a mistake looking back...
    2 Oct 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • gord0ngekko
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    i'm a buyer. don't fight the tape.
    1 Oct 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • endobrendo
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    NFLX will drop $20 overnight. Icahn's comments weren't positive in his interview today, which will be interpreted as negative by the market.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • kennetj
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone else but NFLX back at 18?
    2 Oct 2013, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • happyguy
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    When was back dozens of years ago the markets could react on some bizarre comments of some kind of old fat cat who made a fortune with career starting in brokerage?

     

    Markets should simply do the reverse. And Netflix has max 2 years to survive as I'm still puzzled why people are watching Netflix and wasting their time and money. Technology is moving on; DVDs are gonna be gone and so is Netflix
    2 Oct 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tvaddic
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    People said that when Netflix initially started, people said that when Netflix went head to head with Blockbuster, people said that when Redbox came, people said that when they started streaming, people said that after the quiwkster decision, what changed now?
    2 Oct 2013, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Karlos DW
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Netflix at $330, they must have found alien life in a far away galaxy, English speaking, capable of streaming, have no life & desperate to view hours of mind destroying junk.
    2 Oct 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
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