Seeking Alpha

Precious metals reverse yesterday's plunge

Comments (19)
  • I thought it was the "paycheck-less government workers selling their gold to raise cash" which you queried in your email blast yesterday???


    2 Oct 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
    2 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Just as I said. All a big fix. As for patronising gold bugs of which I am proud to be one, then don't bother. No one is selling their gold. It is just the barrow boys moving from one corner to another!
    2 Oct 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • China is buying LOTS more physical than reported. I spoke to Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, in emails and he said China bought 600 tons of physical in April from the Perth Mint after the April take down. Lots more buying than just that is going on. If India was not trying every kind of scheme imaginable to blame their economic problems all on gold imports and to stop their citizens from buying and importing more gold, COMEX may have already defaulted and gone to all cash settlement and GLD's physical gold backing the shares may be to levels where there would be nearly no gold at all backing it.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • That's interesting because I have a supplier in Hong Kong that is trying to get gold from us here in the U.S. to ship to Australia (large quantities). Not putting the pieces of the puzzle together that Australia is low on gold, but something to keep an eye on if the Perth Mint just shipped 600 tons to China. A link would be nice.


    I did have another individual contact me from Australia to buy gold and asked what the shipping cost was. Rather strange when you got the Perth Mint right there.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • There is no link except to an interview where Rickards mentions this. Jim Rickards mentioned it in an interview with Financial Sense Newshour a few weeks ago so I emailed him asking him about it. Rickards has good sources inside China. I spoke to Rickards and he says he has very good contacts inside China who would know. Rickards has 35 years experience working on Wall St in investment banking and he also has very high level political contacts all over the globe. He has presented at the Fed many times. He has very good sources. If you follow his track record the last few years, he predicted the size and when QE programs would occur ahead of time. He also said no taper months in advance. Here is the link to Rickards' interview:
    2 Oct 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Only physical gold imported from Hong Kong to mainland China is reported publicly for now. China is buying physical gold directly from refiners, from London/LBMA, NY, Switzerland, other parts of Asia, Australia/Perth Mint, and sometimes directly from miners outside the country that they negotiate an offtake agreement like Coeur D'Alene's Kensington Mine or they have their state owned gold companies buy gold miners outside China. There are at least 6 large sources of gold China buys from where it is not reported how much gold they buy from these sources.
    2 Oct 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Rally presents an opportunity to "get out".. Gold is firmly entrenched in a "bear " market ,, This rally should be capped in and around the 1340-1350 level..


    If the 'fear" trade takes hold over the debt ceiling rhetoric, there is a small possibility gold can rise to the 1425 level where there is tremendous overhead resistance ,, This downtrend will take the metal back to the lows of 1200 . A failure there and we can possibly see a three digit price for Gold into '14.. therefore one has to contemplate the risk reward that is being presented to be long Gold.
    Best of luck to all..
    2 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Yes. Goldman Sachs has a $1,050/oz sell prediction on Gold but they are buying millions of shares of GLD for their own account over the last few months!
    2 Oct 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • have a link to reports on the Goldman purchases ?
    2 Oct 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • There is a case in point. Might as well be talking about potatoes or plastic bags. Complete lack of appreciation of what is "worthwhile".
    2 Oct 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Sammy,


    In spite of what many want to believe , Gold is NOT immune to what is currently being forecast by the "price action" .
    2 Oct 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • There are multiple data points detailing that the gold buying on the massive dip in the spring could be a one time event. It make sense, because the massive buying spree basically replenished all the depleted inventory levels for both India and China. So next time there is a free fall you may not have the same buying spree that occurred in the spring.

    2 Oct 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • sooner or later (sooner I think), the miners will begin to start an earnest M&A event. Junior producers will look to be acquired, partnering to consolidate resources and hypothetically drive production costs down (and hypothetically increase margin in the process), and just straight up folding of some miners as well. -- and those assets will be auctioned off - meaning tangible assets AND property rights as well. Then will come the slow down of production, thereby constricting availability, therefore - based on econ 101: supply and demand - gold price will rise. I'm neither long nor short the physical and don't really plan to be. I'm focusing on the miners (I don't care whether they are up or down, frankly) because making money means being able to capitalize on the movement of the market as a whole, be that movement be up or down.
    2 Oct 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • ...not to mention the correlation of gold vs the strength of the USD. and as long as the printing presses keep rolling, the USD will continue to be diluted, therefore lose strength, and as the theory of relativity demands; gold increases.
    2 Oct 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • lefty,


    You may want to rethink your "dollar strength" thesis.. As we move to a more normalized interest rate environment in '14 Gold will be the worst place to be ....
    2 Oct 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • F&G -- ...yes, you are onto something there. admittedly my 'thesis' is incomplete - more scrutiny is in order. recommended reading perhaps?
    2 Oct 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • As recently stated on my instablog here ..


    "I do know one thing, if I am seeking advice about investment related results, why would I look to those who have been wrong for many years? Answer : I don't !, and recommend -- neither should you."


    Choose who you wish but follow authors and pundits both here and on other internet sources who have had the "story" regarding the markets "correct" .


    Bespoke Group , Jeff Miller 's articles here and his blog are just a couple to start with .. Contributors here on SA , "Tack" , "Southgent" bring a wealth of knowledge to the table and they both fall into the "correct" category..
    2 Oct 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • kewl beans, thanx much. !
    2 Oct 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
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