Seeking Alpha

Government shutdown could send ag markets into turmoil

  • The U.S. government shutdown and the resulting lack of official statistics are prompting traders to shun agricultural commodities due to concerns about the vacuum of information and fears of a data dump that will hit markets hard when the shutdown ends.
  • Likely to fall victim to the shutdown is the USDA's monthly Wasde crop production report, set for Oct. 11, which affects prices of grains and other agricultural commodities around the world.
  • Analysts say concerns over a delay could lead to additional short-covering as speculative shorts look to take risk off the table; once the USDA resumes operations, a torrent of backlogged data could trigger a highly volatile reaction.
  • ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI, JJG, GRU, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, COW, UBC, JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Comments (9)
  • MOO.
    5 Oct 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • These crop forecasts are about as accurate as the hurricane forecasts.
    Its the short term speculative money that trades off this info. I think the lack of this info a good thing.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tell that to the farmers who depend on the reports for their livelihoods. It's best to keep quiet on subjects you know nothing about.
    6 Oct 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • The govt. does not need to be involved. There are many other private sources of this info. This number, just like many other "govt forecasts" just add short term volatility.
    6 Oct 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Get government out of agriculture.
    5 Oct 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • And education
    5 Oct 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • lol and banking and real estate.
    7 Oct 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • And healthcare.
    7 Oct 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • We know the grain harvests were running late. We know some storms are coming out of the Dakotas onto the plains (Weather.gov is still up and running). Right now with everything so uncertain, I see FUD* as the new gold. It's a better place to run and hide!

     

    * or WEAT, CORN -- not so much beans. Actually CHOC and NIB have been running well, but I've got to wonder how much higher they can go.
    7 Oct 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
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