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IDC: PC shipments fell 7.6% Y/Y in Q3, better than feared

  • While the number isn't pretty, it's notably better than the 11.4% drop IDC estimated for Q2, as well as the firm's respective Q3 and full-year forecasts of -9.5% and -9.7%. Easier comps helped out a bit (shipments fell 8.6% Y/Y a year ago), as did "channel intake of Windows 8.1-based systems" in September. (PR)
  • As was the case in Q2, U.S. and enterprise were areas of strength. U.S. shipments only fell 0.2%, and enterprise volumes saw a "slight uptick." But tablet cannibalization led Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) shipments to fall 8.8%. EMEA declined in-line with expectations, while Japan outperformed.
  • The mix shift is a positive for H-P (HPQ - 27% U.S. share vs. 17.1% global share), Intel (INTC - higher ASPs), and Microsoft (MSFT - higher ASPs and less piracy). It hurts Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), but the Chinese firm was still the market's top vendor, and saw its global share rise 160 bps Y/Y to 17.3%.
  • H-P was #2; its share rose 130 bps. #3 Dell, which has gotten more aggressive with its pricing, saw its share rise 90 bps to 11.7%.
  • Apple's (AAPL) U.S. PC share, which has been rising in recent years, fell 140 bps to 11.6%; the enterprise mix shift and pending MacBook Pro/Mac OS X refreshes likely played roles.
  • Other affected industry names: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC.
  • Update: Gartner thinks shipments fell 8.6% Y/Y.
Comments (9)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3968) | Send Message
     
    That is certainly good news... almost half of what the worst was predicted.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    The big question is...when will shipments stabilize? My guess is sometime in mid 2014, when the tablet market saturates.
    9 Oct 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3534) | Send Message
     
    Agree, PC shipments will not continue to decline forever, they are adjusting against the entire ecosystem.

     

    Form factor is the name of the game. Where are you going to prefer to watch Netflix? Home theater with huge screen and surround? Or on your tablet?

     

    Same in the enterprise, you want to do spreadsheet work on two big screens or on a tiny little tablet you can barley read fine details on.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hamdy Sadek
    , contributor
    Comments (148) | Send Message
     
    I think large part of Intel's revenue concerns relate to the troubles and challenges that both Dell and HP are currently going through and of course the increased adoption of tablets and mobile devices. I cannot imagine corporations and professionals have all of the sudden decided to use tablets and smart phones instead of laptops, workstations and servers. It does not make any sense.
    9 Oct 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • TFCAB
    , contributor
    Comments (1944) | Send Message
     
    Lots of PUT buying in INTC. From where i sit, Hamdy is right. Most tablets are used as either toys or presentation pieces. Not a lot of work gets done on them. My girlfriends company bought a bunch of ipads but with their limited functionality / integration outside of the AAPL eco-system, their primary purpose is to deliver Candy -Crush to the staff
    9 Oct 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • andy7r12
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Hamdy, I could not have said it better myself. Right on!!!

     

    "I cannot imagine corporations and professionals have all of the sudden decided to use tablets and smart phones instead of laptops, workstations and servers. It does not make any sense."
    9 Oct 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11015) | Send Message
     
    I think the lower drop-off was because Microsoft partially reversed most of Windows 8 flaws. At least now it is somewhat acceptable to use. Still, any IT manager who knows their stuff will avoid it unless they are putting it on tablets.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8821) | Send Message
     
    Yay...
    10 Oct 2013, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (1244) | Send Message
     
    And IT managers are waiting fir WP8.1
    13 Oct 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
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