Seeking Alpha

eBay seeing weakening U.S. e-commerce growth, cautious about holidays

  • Though EBAY saw stabilizing macro conditions in Europe and Asia-Pac during Q3, the U.S. e-commerce market "softened considerably" and hasn't rebounded yet in Q4, the company stated on its Q3 CC. The U.S. weakness, together with ramping investments, are blamed for eBay's below-consensus Q4 guidance.
  • A positive tone was generally struck regarding PayPal, whose merchant services transaction growth hit a 6-quarter high in Q3. Bill Me Later also fared well: transaction volume +30% to $1.01B, portfolio balance +37% to $2.56B. But there might be some concern about PayPal's take rate, which fell 9 bps Q/Q and 19 bps Y/Y to 3.94%.
  • 71% of Marketplaces transactions now involve fixed-price items, and 36% of new Q3 users came via mobile. Vehicles GMV (excluded from broader GMV metrics) fell 11% Y/Y, even with Q2.
  • The Enterprise division (formerly GSI) saw 5% Y/Y rev. growth to $238M; client same-store sales rose 13%.
  • EBAY -5% AH. AMZN -1.1%. Amazon obtained 60% of its Q2 sales from North America. Other firms with strong U.S. e-commerce exposure: OSTK, NILE, ECOM.
  • Q3 results, guidance/details, slides
Comments (10)
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    This softness in US ecommerce is interesting. What's up with that?
    16 Oct 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12680) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, what's up is that Ebay doesn't want to look in the mirror:

     

    http://bit.ly/Y3TfIQ
    16 Oct 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    I missed your point. Are you saying they are now tracking with all retail sales?
    17 Oct 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    It's a global trend. CEOs never raise salaries but they expect their workers to spend more. It's an idiocy and it will never happen. Consumers will spend less and less and less... until then don't spend any more.

     

    Portugal has already reached this stage. Here, the middle class only spends on unavoidable bills like rent, food, gas... etc.

     

    Buying extras? Forget it?
    Going to the Cinema? Forget it.
    Buying Christmas presents for the entire family? Forget it. Now there's a consensus among many middle class families: only buy x-mas presents for children and no one else.

     

    No money, no spending. It's a pretty simple equation, really. I don't understand how greedy CEOs can expect anything different.

     

    As an example: I used to spend about 60€ a month in shopping. Nowadays, I spend an average of 5€ a month in shopping and I'm trying to reduce it to near zero.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12680) | Send Message
     
    TVP:

     

    I'm suggesting that, as the internet-auction business has become passe, and Ebay's web site has increasing become a retail e-commerce business, they have been placed at a distinct disadvantage, trying to compete against Amazon (and others), who are much more heavily engaged in active promotion of their retail businesses and who are already associated in consumers' minds with retail sales.

     

    Unless Ebay much more aggressively spends time and money altering their image, they will become more like Craigslist and less like Amazon, and their growth will suffer accordingly.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12680) | Send Message
     
    m:

     

    Apparently, the politicians and media will enjoy your interpretation. However, the problem in places around the world, where socialism has for years been in the ascendancy, is not greedy CEO's, but rather governments that have taxed and mandated away incentives for investment and growth. The consequences are hardly surprising.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Tack

     

    Good point. I agree on ebay's image problem.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • sethmcs
    , contributor
    Comments (3062) | Send Message
     
    The interesting thing is if the big techs miss this earnings season then the money will go to financials and industrials which will provide leadership. That suits me fine.
    16 Oct 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • cindstamp
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I Thought Obama said he was strengthening the middle class.
    I don't understand. You mean he was lying?
    17 Oct 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    When you find an elected politician who tells the truth, cindstamp, let us know.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
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