Seeking Alpha

Daily Mail says Chesapeake a rumored target of oil majors

  • The Daily Mail passes along a rumor going around earlier that Chesapeake Energy (CHK) could be takeover bait for the likes of BP or Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) at ~$40/share.
  • Early morning strength in the shares may have been attributed to the rumor, but most gains fell away into the afternoon; shares closed +0.3% but have picked up ~2% AH.
Comments (24)
  • GamCap LLC
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    Almost zero chance at $40...would have to be closer to $50 at least
    17 Oct 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • GamCap LLC
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    http://dailym.ai/175uO9E

     

    here is the article...
    17 Oct 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • john001
    , contributor
    Comments (540) | Send Message
     
    Oh please, please....not RDS. They are already way too heavily weighted in NA gas.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • NKP
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Chesapeake has an enormous runway with premier assets. I would rather hold for ten years than sell this at $40, $50, or $60. There is just so much potential.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • GamCap LLC
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    SE Asset and Icahn are very tight and together own almost 25%, the call the shots, own the CEO..BOD and Chairman....i doubt they could turn down $50
    17 Oct 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • NKP
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you. Fortunately it's a concentrated position for us. Unfortunately, it's nowhere near an amount where anyone would care what I say.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • GamCap LLC
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    I think a RDS/A bid would put the pressure on XOM to step to the plate and counter bid. XOM's production trends are awful..especially on the domestic liquids front...would be nice to pick up an immediate 175k barrels of liquids production and the 3 BCF a day of natty production. Would be some anti-trust concerns...prob would have to sell off the Barnett assets at least in any deal
    17 Oct 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • buffett222
    , contributor
    Comments (742) | Send Message
     
    Maybe $60+
    17 Oct 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (938) | Send Message
     
    I think RDS would first pursue smaller producers like KWK, FST or XCO. If fact, RDS and KWK already have ongoing JV in Sand Wash basin and the small market cap of KWK coupled with big proven reserves makes it a good target.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • BAHAMAS1
    , contributor
    Comments (1636) | Send Message
     
    How 'bout a BP / COP merger.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Clayton Rulli
    , contributor
    Comments (2333) | Send Message
     
    someone should buy OXY
    17 Oct 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • pauliene
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    some power that be, should ask the company to address rumors that affect the stock price
    if its so, a takeover, the stockholders should be informed, or, maybe, no comment would do?
    tomorrow morning , the s,e,c, should ask the question...
    now I kind of like .Maybe ,,or, no comment would do
    even better, any one seen any old company bean counters hanging out in the halls of corporate Chesapeake ?
    me, i want any kind of a buy out
    17 Oct 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • doc47
    , contributor
    Comments (955) | Send Message
     
    Still facing untold $billions from the gulf disaster, BP should not be looking for any major acquisition.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • buffett222
    , contributor
    Comments (742) | Send Message
     
    Maybe Uncle Carl will tweet tomorrow
    17 Oct 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • glf4mny
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    I agree with doc47, no way BP can afford to buy CHK/ACMP and besides, BP is not looking for more nat gas in N.A.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Energysystems
    , contributor
    Comments (875) | Send Message
     
    CHK doesn't own ACMP. But whoever buys CHK assets, would have to honor contractual obligations to ACMP if they are already in place.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Factzplz
    , contributor
    Comments (210) | Send Message
     
    In the last 3 days $1 million in Calls have been bought for November to be above $29 to break even.

     

    Roughly 50 billion BOE (proved + unproved reserves) at $50 is $2 per barrel. I costs the majors $7 bbl just find the stuff. CHK has discovered 2x more oil than COP for the past 3 years, and more than XOM last year.

     

    CHK's drilling cost is $7 per barrel oil, and a $1.38 for gas.
    Etc.
    Etc.
    Etc.

     

    Fair value = $70. Keep your fingers and eyes crossed. At $40 someone should go to jail for theft.

     

    Gosh, I hope SE and Icahn do not go for a quick pop and leave us little guys who are willing to hold for three or more years to get the full value.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • GamCap LLC
    , contributor
    Comments (381) | Send Message
     
    100% agree, but would need natty gas above $6.50 to justify the $70(that is our top price in a takeout as well, currently around $4.20 on the 12 month strip...our lower takeout level would be $50ish). RDS/A is similiar to XOM in that they look to position themselves for the next 10-20-30 years...not the next Q...sure, they pay lip service to it but it's simply way cheaper to buy CHK and add to production and reserves than it is thru the drillbit.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • johnnyc1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    very good volume over the last several days
    last volume on the 28 line in the options both front week and November options
    Utica Shale based companies are finding reserves more plentiful than originally estimated(Antero recent IPO)
    17 Oct 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • johnnyc1
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    massive option volume on the 28 line as a percent of open interest volume yesterday exceed the 90 day moving average as well as today
    look at price action in Antero in the Utica Shale Also
    17 Oct 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • mattb917
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    There's no way absent a NG bounce back.
    18 Oct 2013, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • bikerron1
    , contributor
    Comments (455) | Send Message
     
    Why buy CHK for 40 when you can have SD for 9?
    18 Oct 2013, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1095) | Send Message
     
    usually when these rumors , its better to wait for a few days and then pick it up on a dip.
    18 Oct 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • BAHAMAS1
    , contributor
    Comments (1636) | Send Message
     
    doc47-
    I agree. But I didn't say BP buy COP.
    I said merge. Big diff
    18 Oct 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
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