Seeking Alpha

Netflix beats by $0.03.

  • Netflix (NFLX): Q3 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.03.
  • Revenue of $1.1B in-line. Shares +5.5% AH.
  • (Shareholder letter)
Comments (31)
  • Ouch for my short.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • I'll admit, I don't get it. But I sure the heck ain't going to short it. NFLX is a runaway train right now.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • It's an irrational bubble but it can go higher longer than people shorting it can stay solvent! lol
    21 Oct 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • I think they do have a viable company in the long term but it's so overvalued right now it's not even funny. Market is pricing in every single growth assumption as guaranteed to happen. I am not shorting it though but I said over a month ago the best way to even think about shorting it was with a hedged short using a long straddle to play the extreme upside and downside volatility. I commented on a Netflix article a few months ago the stock could go much higher before it crashed again. If you bought a long straddle the put expires worthless but the call made you a killing. Maybe time to move up the strike price on the long straddle if you did that. Move strike price higher and roll over the trade.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • It wasn't a huge position for my portfolio. I actually finished up for the day after taking the $57 per share loss today. I don't get it either. Cost increased more than revenue and NI was basically lower before hedging/IR crap. But hey, they beat by 3 cents so I guess that justifies this move...
    21 Oct 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • insanity. love it.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Not the blowout qtr I was hoping for, pretty much in line with estimates. EPS slightly ahead, subs a little behind. In particular I was hoping that their "contribution" loss would be tailing off by this point, but instead it increased again. Hopefully there will be something about that in the Q&A.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Lets party like its 1999! Oh, hope not.......
    21 Oct 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • wow 15% in one day on no beat

     

    what would it be with a beat?
    21 Oct 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • A double. That's how $NFLX rolls.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • A $0.03 beat and it's up 5.5%? What is happening?
    21 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Look at the content expense growth versus revenue... Apparently nobody else is.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Nobody looks at anything related to reality. They failed on subs, tricked up a 3 cent beat and hit revenue. Real growth stocks used to knock the ball out of the park on earnings days. It's amazing or is it amazon? And you are referring to published expense growth not including whatever residual deals they have made. If you understand this and CMG on friday as anything other than the ominous deathknells of a market about to dive, explain it to me. CMG MISSED earnings and beat revenue by 6 million - they probably moved the check to the lettuce distributor in NY from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1 - and it goes up 16%????? They are growing - for now - at 17% but trade at a 50 PE, a PEG of 3.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • well...once they have the CC, reality will set in. The earnings were good, but they were not great enough to warrant a $100 rise in the share price in the last 4 days
    21 Oct 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • they barely beat on the top line...I smell a rat here!
    21 Oct 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Hastings has a stable of rats - and someday they will have to pay the piper - who buys stock at these levels on an up 50 print? It would appear however that the playing field of crazy excesses is narrowing a bit - TSLA finally looks tired, LNKD is tired. The top line number could be in reality 20% lower if Hastings were waterboarded and fessed up - they probably are booking futures now against subs who will cancel post bb etc. CMG is even crazier , but cramer is their pitchman (nflx too as a matter of fact); the last fireworks of the end of a bubble market.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • YES!!! I told a friend that it will beat analysts estimates and the stock would go up $370+ and boy was I right!!!
    21 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Insane. Bought at an avg. price of $178. Almost sold before close. Now I've taken some profit off the table. But way over-priced. Pure momentum stretched over good flash.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Wow it costs $400 to earn 50 cents every 3 months. Just wow.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • non gaap .50!
    21 Oct 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • PE of 450+, what could go wrong?
    21 Oct 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • obviously...nothing...... a great stock for the longs and it sucks to be caught short options like me! ...defies logic but hey that's the market...
    21 Oct 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Exaggerated optimism. Revenue in line. No wonder they. This result already celebrated.
    Time to short
    21 Oct 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • I don't understand the euphonious of AH. Netflix guideline for 3Q2013, domestic total member 30.5 ~31.3 m, the result 31.09; Paid member 29.4~30.1m, the result 29.93m; EPS 0.30~0.56, the result 0.52. Not a blow out quarter. The stock was up >100 points since last low, you might expect much better result>
    21 Oct 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • If you guys checked out my comments from a few months ago and played this with a long straddle to take advantage of the volatility you did well.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I still think this is the ultimate short. Of course, the question is when. Buying long term puts is probably the best way to do it financed by selling near term calls. Tomorrow looks like a great day to do it.
    21 Oct 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha, when you say sell near term calls, I presume you mean naked calls. That would be a very bad idea....take a look at what happened to $330-350 naked call sellers today..
    21 Oct 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder if a lot of mutual funds have been scrambling to get Netflix into their list of holdings, it might help their next reports look good.

     

    Anyway, best wishes for Netflix. It remains a wonderful force for low-cost deep video content choices.
    21 Oct 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Soon Carl will let his son quit and sell this. Actually I'm sure he's plenty hedged by now.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • tsla is up next, $250 after earnings on nov 4
    22 Oct 2013, 02:46 AM Reply Like
  • Repeat, I said above...time to short NFLX
    This price turn ridiculous.
    Earnings no surprises
    22 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
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