White raises Apple estimates ahead of results; Japanese sales appear strong

Ahead of this afternoon's FQ4 report, the ever-bullish Brian White has raised his FQ4 Apple (AAPL) revenue and EPS estimates to $37.5B and $8.06, above a consensus of $36.8B and $7.93. Likewise, his FQ1 estimates have been raised to $58.9B and $14.50, above a consensus of $55.7B and $13.86.

Meanwhile, Localytics (previous) now reports the iPhone 5S and 5C respectively make up 3.8% and 1.7% of the global iPhone base. The iPhone 5 is said to to make up 39.8%, the 4S 32.9%, and the iPhone 4 20.2%.

In Japan, where NTT DoCoMo just began carrying the iPhone, the 5S/5C already make up nearly 10% of the local iPhone base. In the U.S., the figure is 6.4%.

Three things that stand to receive scrutiny this afternoon: 1) Details about 5S supply constraints; though supplies have improved, Apple's U.S. online store still shows 5S shipping times of 2-3 weeks. 2) Gross margin figures, which are likely getting a boost from healthy 5S sales and Apple's decision to maintain premium pricing. 3) Commentary about sales trends in Europe and emerging markets (inc. China), where Apple has lost share this year thanks to the rising popularity of cheaper and larger smartphones.

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Comments (7)
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (592) | Send Message
    How convenient!
    28 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • rpotenzamd
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Keeps me up to date
    28 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
    It looks like the bear thesis is crumbling before our eyes. Apple is still very deeply discounted to the market because Mr. Market believes Apple can't compete going forward, at least without losing revs on lower margins. Should Apple's growth restart--in margins or topline, even modestly, this would be extremely bullish imho. If Apple simply had the same P/E multiple as the average S&P 500 stock, it would be close to $800 right now! Why is Apple so much cheaper than all of these companies that really aren't as good? And, Apple has about $150 a share in net cash to boot, and a larger dividend. I don't ever remember anything like this. A company so much stronger in a high growth market, that is selling for 60 cents on the dollar compared to average companies! We could see a very, very strong pop on good news imo. Even bad news shouldn't kill it because that is what we are priced for right now! It could pull back, but I don't think we are going back to $450. $450 is gone and $530 may be shortly. We will see. GLTA.
    28 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • JamesAlpine
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
    I wish we'd see a pop BUT, I'm not sure we will... ;( I think a minor or even moderate beat will only have +3% in it. Sad but true. Unless of course they totally blow their numbers to bits and guide strong for q1... We shall see...
    28 Oct 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2556) | Send Message
    Well, I am just talking. I wouldn't bet a penny on Mr. Market's reaction to Apple earnings this time. Long term is the only way to fight the irrational aspects of the valuation. Short term there is money to be made, but mostly by selling options to the unsuspecting. The premiums are really high, which sometimes means a big move is being priced in. Maybe 490, and maybe 590...we will see. Careful.
    28 Oct 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (873) | Send Message
    Three things at issue this PM (re The Above Article):


    1. Supply constraints: I believe this was not intended; but it has always been a successful method of increasing demand.


    2. Margin: There are really no strict rules. But, Apple has been successful making high price part of the desirability and exclusivity of the products.


    3. Lost SHARE trends in Europe and emerging mkts (and China): Apple, fortunately, is not in a low-price/big share race to the bottom.
    28 Oct 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Cabeza Howe
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
    In the current maturing phase of the Apple story, people like White just could make things worse. Their bullish estimates increase the likelihood Apple might come out missing the consensus, thus pressuring the stock. Hopefully the company outlook helps to alleviate this risk.


    After fact, it turns out White is on the mark for his FQ4 raise; but his FQ1 estimate looks a bit too optimistic compared to company outlook, which at the high end is revenue of $58B and implied EPS of $14.24. Low end is, however, $55B and EPS of $12.8. White: $58.9B, $14.5? C'mon, lower them and help Apple beat easily and by great margin. That's how you really help.
    29 Oct 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
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