5S backlog still significant, Strategy Analytics releases smartphone estimates

|By:, SA News Editor

There's still a significant backlog of iPhone 5S (AAPL) orders, even though supplies are rising every week, says Tim Cook on the CC. Likewise, though Cook is upbeat about FQ1 iPad sales, he says it isn't clear retina iPad Mini supplies (reportedly constrained) will match demand during the quarter.

Also: 1) Greater China sales (+6% Y/Y) benefited from an earlier Chinese iPhone launch. 2) Cook says education market sales topped $1B for the first time, and estimates Apple has a 94% tablet share in the vertical. 3) DRAM and NAND flash memory costs rose in FQ4. DRAM costs are expected to rise again in FQ1, while NAND costs are expected to be flat and other commodity costs lower.

Strategy Analytics has plugged Apple's FQ4 iPhone sales (33.8M) into its spreadsheet and released its Q3 smartphone estimates. The firm believes industry shipments rose 45% Y/Y to 251M, after rising 47% in Q2.

Apple, whose iPhone units rose 26% Y/Y, is given a 13.4% unit share, -220 bps Y/Y. Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) is assigned a 35% share, +210 bps, and estimated to have shipped 88.4M smartphones. Huawei (5.1%), LG (LGEIY, 4.8%), and Lenovo (LNVGY, 4.3%) round out the top-5.

AAPL -0.1% AH. Apple deferred revenue remarks have calmed investors worried about FQ1 gross margin guidance.

CC live blogs: I, II. More on Apple.