5S backlog still significant, Strategy Analytics releases smartphone estimates

There's still a significant backlog of iPhone 5S (AAPL) orders, even though supplies are rising every week, says Tim Cook on the CC. Likewise, though Cook is upbeat about FQ1 iPad sales, he says it isn't clear retina iPad Mini supplies (reportedly constrained) will match demand during the quarter.

Also: 1) Greater China sales (+6% Y/Y) benefited from an earlier Chinese iPhone launch. 2) Cook says education market sales topped $1B for the first time, and estimates Apple has a 94% tablet share in the vertical. 3) DRAM and NAND flash memory costs rose in FQ4. DRAM costs are expected to rise again in FQ1, while NAND costs are expected to be flat and other commodity costs lower.

Strategy Analytics has plugged Apple's FQ4 iPhone sales (33.8M) into its spreadsheet and released its Q3 smartphone estimates. The firm believes industry shipments rose 45% Y/Y to 251M, after rising 47% in Q2.

Apple, whose iPhone units rose 26% Y/Y, is given a 13.4% unit share, -220 bps Y/Y. Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) is assigned a 35% share, +210 bps, and estimated to have shipped 88.4M smartphones. Huawei (5.1%), LG (LGEIY, 4.8%), and Lenovo (LNVGY, 4.3%) round out the top-5.

AAPL -0.1% AH. Apple deferred revenue remarks have calmed investors worried about FQ1 gross margin guidance.

CC live blogs: I, II. More on Apple.

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Comments (9)
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (1059) | Send Message
    Micron should see nice improvement with rising Dram prices being supplier of mobile ram now used also in all of Apples shipping laptop products
    28 Oct 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (657) | Send Message
    I have a feeling that Apple might not catch up until January or February for that matter. If China Mobile comes on board I don't think I'll ever catch up. This is going to be a great year for Apple investors. If you are one congratulations, if you're not, too bad!
    28 Oct 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2767) | Send Message
    Bullet two=Micron is a great buy. I think China Mobile is likely in Q2. It makes a lot of sense from a supply standpoint. It will be like another country add. New product categories in CY 14, and new phones with big screens late in FY 14. All good.
    28 Oct 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
    With about $37B yet to spend on buying back shares, it will be best if Apple can buy at as low a cost as possible.
    28 Oct 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9727) | Send Message
    Why doesn't Apple buy Micron?
    29 Oct 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Matt-Man
    , contributor
    Comments (1059) | Send Message
    While it could make sense in short term, I think Apple will be more successful by not having its own foundry, phone factory or memory production. While today they would make huge profits owning whole chain, it would tie company to basic manufacturing. When iPad8 and iPhone10 then would not be success for any reason, whole company would be in trouble as expensive assets would not generate profits but piles of unused components.


    Flexibility of having memory vendor who delivers quantities asked for is much better position for Apple even if it givens in for few dollar of profits for memory vendor rather than Apple.
    29 Oct 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
    How about a quick round of "Why doesn't Apple buy ...".


    I'll start with Disney and Time Warner.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Lucullus
    , contributor
    Comments (134) | Send Message
    Why doesn't AAPL build,own, buy its own foundry INTC lead in process technology is going to bite them, probably soon they need to keep up with INTC process moves will also keep them ahead on QCOM and Samsung etc
    30 Oct 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
    I saw one on the BBRY side about Apple would buy Blackberry.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
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