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Private payroll growth in clear downtrend

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Comments (25)
  • Bret Jensen
    , contributor
    Comments (11185) | Send Message
     
    Another false summer of recovery. With the implementation of ACA and other boneheaded policies of this regime....no one should be surprised.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10435) | Send Message
     
    Strong enough to signal...no recession on the horizon....
    30 Oct 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (636) | Send Message
     
    and no recovery
    30 Oct 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Guardian3981
    , contributor
    Comments (2187) | Send Message
     
    Yes as long as hiring remains tepid one can say that we are "still" in the "early" stages of a recovery. When hiring is rampant that means we are peaking or even over the hill, or that is what people can claim...
    30 Oct 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (9735) | Send Message
     
    You're right, Bret. Another summer of lies, misdirection and misinformation.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10435) | Send Message
     
    You forgot mistletoe,misanthrope and miscellaneous....
    30 Oct 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4136) | Send Message
     
    Rep. Waxman is questioning Sec. Sebelius and pointing out that all is well with the ACA and a new day is dawning where everyone will have health security, a good job and a bright future subsidized by the Fed gov't. God Bless America.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (827) | Send Message
     
    I dunno. I got a surcharge, not a subsidy. I'm involuntarily in the high risk pool.

     

    Sebelius herself issued the order that insurance companies may not pool any of the new risks with any large government or corporate pool.

     

    Why are none of them asking anything about the subterfuge of dumping all the new risk pool costs onto one segment? They just talk like I'm supposed to be glad I have insurance and it's better and more affordable. Neither is true; quite the opposite.
    30 Oct 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • wmateri
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    Clearly QE is not doing much to stimulate the economy. One could wish that the Fed would find a different way to get all that freshly-minted money out into the economy (rather than just into the markets). Of course, that would likely set off inflation and force them to remove some of the liquidity from the market, which would cause it to crash. I feel sorry for the Fed and the position they have worked themselves into. Good luck coming up with some new ideas today.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    And why is the Fed cornered? Because the US gov. has done a bang up job of.....doing its job.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    I feel sorry for the citizenry and the position the Fed has worked us into, but no sympathy for the oligarchy at the Fed...they'll be just fine as generations yet to be born absorb the consequences.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (977) | Send Message
     
    With all time highs on the indexes, I think we can now expect sentiment to change significantly and get that correction we've all been waiting for. Time to load up on cash.
    30 Oct 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • evan.prospect
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    Before anyone blames the short-term government shutdown, I have read that 80% of government spending is non-discretionary (think entitlements, a lot of defense, etc) so only 20% of total government spending was temporarily suspended.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10700) | Send Message
     
    Hey, GDP is growing. Yep, its growing slowly. And it will continue to grow slowly so long as nothing catastrophic happens. But we will not see anything better than very low 2% GDP growth for a long time. Perhaps for a long, long, long time. So get used to Japanese style growth.

     

    Both demographics and productivity declines slow us down, and unless the younger generation all of a sudden thinks it's time to start making average family size of 5 or 6, demographics ain't gonna change. And given my assessment of the twenty-something, productivity ain't gonna change either.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    If anything I think the average family size will be coming down over the next decade...
    30 Oct 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    If we just start measuring productivity by number of waking hours spent gazing at smartphones the US economy would be booming.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4218) | Send Message
     
    I think productivity measured by time spent on SA would be an excellent metric...

     

    I would probably have to tell my boss I need some more time off being over worked and all :p
    30 Oct 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13334) | Send Message
     
    Still looks like gold and silver have legs. That is a bad sign for a robust recovery.

     

    We aren't going to have any robust recovery folks!
    30 Oct 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14417) | Send Message
     
    I just peruse most of the comments and realize how good it all makes me feel. More complaints, woefulness and predictions of major corrections.

     

    The consistent slow, but ever upward, boring growth is the very best kind. And, no euphoric runaway hiring, which always spurs inflation and almost invariably marks the beginning of euphoric tops. Nope, none of that, just the endless wall-of-worry, accompanied by the persistent, but repeatedly incorrect, negative predictions.

     

    Let's hope things stay just as lousy.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    "And, no euphoric runaway hiring, which always spurs inflation "

     

    Always?

     

    "It turns out that the vast majority of the published evidence suggests that there is little reason to believe that wage inflation causes price inflation. In fact, it is more often found that price inflation causes wage inflation. Our recent research, which updates and expands on the current literature, also provides little support for the view that wage gains cause inflation. Moreover, wage inflation does a very poor job of predicting price inflation throughout the 1990s, while money growth and productivity growth sometimes do a better job. The policy conclusion to be drawn is that wage inflation, whether measured using labor compensation, wages, or unit-labor-costs growth, is not a reliable predictor of inflationary pressures. Inflation can strike unexpectedly without any evidence from the labor market."

     

    http://bit.ly/HxaNfJ
    31 Oct 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14417) | Send Message
     
    j:

     

    The author must not have lived through the '70's & early '80's, at least as an adult.
    31 Oct 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    That's fine. But you said, "always".

     

    I'd be interested in seeing what studies you have that show "always" or at least the 70s and 80s.

     

    I will also grant you that this is the Fed, and they will also say things that you can't trust like they saved us from an "economic collapse" or their actions "keep rates lower than they otherwise would have been" (as if there is some way to prove such a statement).
    31 Oct 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14417) | Send Message
     
    J:

     

    As an investor for many years, I have learned to get cautious when things get giddy. One of the things that I observed in the past is that low unemployment rates and higher wage demands go arm in arm. I'll leave most of the debate about what causes what to others, who wish to study such matters, but for me, if I see wages start to rise rapidly and/or unemployment get back to whatever we wish to call "full employment," then I'll adjust my portfolio accordingly, which will mean away from interest-rate-spread sensitive issues, because the Fed will soon find itself playing catch-up to quell the economy and contain inflation, if such occurs.

     

    Then, after they do get a grasp of it, one switches back to yield-related plays because we'll be on the inception of a new recession, when the Fed squashes the yield curve, and we reverse course on the economy and interest-rate policy.
    31 Oct 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    I agree, Tack. Thanks.
    31 Oct 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6167) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tack. It seems you want to back away from "always", and it seems you have only anecdotal evidence for your other claims. Which is fine, anecdotes are a way to get clues to patterns, but until anecdotes are studied, they can be exceptions to the rule. So what you think might be a good foundation for decision making, can actually hurt you in some situations. I was hoping you could refer to some actual studies, as I was curious about your claims, but seeing as you can't, I will consider your anecdotes with some skepticism.

     

    Here's what you need to be careful of...

     

    "Fed will soon find itself playing catch-up to quell the economy and contain inflation"

     

    &

     

    "Then, after they do get a grasp of it,"

     

    The only thing the Fed can do is dry up the supply of Fed notes. So they will never get a grasp of anything. All they will do is succeed in is removing the notes that are being used to bid up asset prices combined with lowering inflation expectations. That will result in a drop in asset prices (as it always has done ie 1929 & 2006). That combined with growing gov regulations (which are also Fed note destroyers) will result in deflated asset prices and even higher unemployment. The trick then is to look for signals that the Fed will reverse itself from yet another mistake it has made due to its ignorance, and then get back in on the bottom as they start to reinflate asset prices. The asset inflation will typically find its way into equity prices (an equity index can be a sort of aristocracy index, in that it can measure the wealth transfer from the general populace to concentrated interests in financial markets).
    1 Nov 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
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