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Munster forecasts strong iPad Air sales, Apple matches Wal-mart's price cut

  • Gene Munster spotted about 365 people in a line outside Apple's (AAPL -1.2%) flagship NYC store this morning to buy the iPad Air. That's less than the 580 spotted a year ago when the 4th-gen iPad and iPad Mini launched, but better than the Apple perma-bull feared.
  • Given the Mini and the 3rd-gen iPad each saw opening weekend sales of 3M while dealing with inventory constraints, Munster thinks weekend Air sales could be in the 2.5M-3.5M range, with sell-through of 1M-2M and channel fill of 1.5M.
  • Much as it has done with the iPhone 5C, Wal-mart is discounting the 16Gb Wi-Fi-only Air below its official retail price; the retail giant is selling the tablet for $479. Interestingly, Apple has joined Best Buy and Staples in matching Wal-mart's price cut.
  • The Air is launching to very good reviews, but (like the retina Mini) its pricing relative to comparable Android hardware has been criticized.
  • Previous: IDC's Q3 tablet share figures
Comments (52)
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    > but (like the retina Mini) its pricing relative to comparable
    > Android hardware has been criticized.

     

    Macs vs PCs all over again? Only time will tell...
    1 Nov 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • name999
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    I went to the store this morning, I have to say, you know it is the right choice once you have it on your hands.

     

    Folks, saying is always easy. I strongly suggest you should get your hands on the iPad Air before bashing or pumping it.

     

    Of course, we are going to see tons of negative reports about the supply constraints of the iPad Mini 2. That is a problem but I am not worried about it.
    1 Nov 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    What's the value proposition above and beyond an iPad 3 or iPad 4?

     

    A little lighter? A little thinner? A little better battery life?

     

    It sounds hard to justify if you already have an older iPad.

     

    Though I'm sure it is an excellent choice for someone who doesn't have a tablet at all.
    1 Nov 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • iOS7 needs to revolutinize
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    How about an A7 chip, 64-bit processor, optimization for iOS7, ability to efficiently handle future heavy weight apps developed for A7, which other iPads won't be able to handle? This is an immense upgrade from its predecessors.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    Maybe. I mean, sure it's a big upgrade on paper, but is it an upgrade people need?

     

    My iPad2 still does everything I need. It's a bit sluggish, especially with iOS7, and I would like LTE, but for now I just tether it to my iPhone 5 and that works well for me.

     

    The dilemma I have is that it being "a bit sluggish" isn't a problem that's worth $500-$1000 to solve, at least not for this consumer and investor.

     

    My iPad 2 plays Infinity Blade 3 (probably one of the heavier graphics games in app store) just fine. It's not like I'm constantly rendering hours of video on the thing, I'm not sure why I need it to be 8x faster or whatever the upgrade is. Most apps are small and light. I get the most value out of apps like Evernote and email and Instapaper and my broker's app. You don't need a super tablet to run them.

     

    But hey, if it is worth it to some, I wish them well.

     

    And certainly, kudos to Apple for making a physical product that lasts, making a software ecosystem that brings rapid innovation (it's all about the apps), and constantly upgrading the OS.

     

    But I think I'm going to wait for an iPad 6. :-)
    1 Nov 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • FAT BANKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1067) | Send Message
     
    RE iOS7 needs ………… Comment 23

     

    You got there before me.
    It is so obvious, why do these people just look at the exterior of the iPAD AIR ? - beautiful and functional as it is . It is all that brilliant technology inside that Apple designers have working on for the last year that should amaze people. Look under the surface !
    1 Nov 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • sws1967
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    Great! But I'm not replacing my kid's iPads to get that.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • New Bee
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    @d_virgnia I share your concern , I had the same argument when they came out with ipad why do I need a tablet worth 500 for when I already have a smartphone and a laptop.

     

    I think you are underestimating the peer pressure and that the overall tablet market is still growing
    1 Nov 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Plus they all come with the Mac office programs free to download
    1 Nov 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Wikeman
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    You don't buy an iPad for "the future", it lasts 2-3 years tops. The battery isn't even replaceable. Likely you'll be looking at another big upgrade in a year.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • TECHx
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    I am hanging on to iPad 1 for as long as I can as it is still a great Pad for content consumption.
    Air gives me a great reason to upgrade. Old Pad confines to a new home on the bath wall as a video display. I would think all iPad, iPad1 users will agree.
    2 Nov 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • ShortSlaver
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    The size matters a lot. Not to make it sound like old iPads are unwieldy, but the thinner form factor and overall lightness makes a difference. Also, iOS 7 is much smoother, however I would agree its fine on iPad 2's also. He size is incredible though. Certainly the most premium tablet around and a remarkable achievement.

     

    I really wish it would have had TouchID though.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • ShortSlaver
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    The size matters a lot. Not to make it sound like old iPads are unwieldy, but the thinner form factor and overall lightness makes a difference. Also, iOS 7 is much smoother, however I would agree its fine on iPad 2's also. He size is incredible though. Certainly the most premium tablet around and a remarkable achievement.

     

    I really wish it would have had TouchID though.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • ajmarto
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    You forget that you can sell your existing iPad for significantly more than someone with a competing tablet. It's like selling a Benz or BMW. Apple products have great resale value. I typically recoup at least 50% of the cost of a new Apple. And with the iPhone my old ones have sold for up to $900! That paid for a new iPhone AND I made money. That's a pipe dream if you have a Droid or a Windows based phone.
    3 Nov 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • MajorDude
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Significantly better battery life.
    Significantly lighter.
    Significantly faster chip.
    Mossberg: "The best tablet ever."

     

    If you want the best, this is it.
    If you'll settle for less, it's just a question of how much less.
    My old iPads still work fine and I will pass along to friends.
    My old Kindle broke after a year - the plastic literally split despite pretty modest wear and tear.

     

    Personally, I want the best.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stan Ackman
    , contributor
    Comments (1103) | Send Message
     
    majordude, did you buy the iPad Air today? If you did not even buy it, why would a lot of others do? No argument that iPad Air is the best, but I suspect the upgrade ratio will be very small.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    I upgraded and I sure many others will too. Was it essential? No but I use it ALL the time and I think I deserve the best. Worlds a big place with billions of people. Sure many others will buy them too.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (914) | Send Message
     
    wow.... this guy's research reports are based on finger counting of a waiting line at a store till he goes for his next lunch break. What a "wallstreet" cushy job.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • hikeleader
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    It did rain this morning in NY...might have something to do with it.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • ShortSlaver
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I think a lot. The Grand Central store was swamped all day. I ordered online so I could pickup in the afternoon and not wait inline and I still had to wait 45 minutes. No rain inside the station I guess.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stan Ackman
    , contributor
    Comments (1103) | Send Message
     
    With all the best words with iPad, we have to ask who will buy it. For many existing iPad users, there is still not enough incentive to upgrade. $500 minimum price tag is not the same with the $200 tag for iPhone. Also, a 16 gb version is not as useful as a 32 gb version, which costs another $100.

     

    There are only that many people who will buy their first iPad. I suspect Apple may see a year over year iPad revenue drop by the end of FY 2014.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • flabingo
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    Everybody should take the time to go into a store to understand it.
    Trading in your current ipad will go down in price as the new software is developed to take advantage of the speed. Remember it took awhile to discover California, since they did not have the transportation to get there. Horses did not do rivers very well
    1 Nov 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • tiger8896
    , contributor
    Comments (640) | Send Message
     
    It probably is the best tablet out there but I just bought a 16GB Nook HD+ for $149 bucks and I can expand it to 90GB with a 64GB microSD card for about $55. So for $200 you have 90GB tablet with a great 1920x1200 display, albeit without cameras and GPS and access to the Google ecosystem Play Store.

     

    I don't see the iPad dominating the tablet landscape any longer with economics like the above. Plenty of consumers will opt for the better deal like the Nook.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Stan Ackman
    , contributor
    Comments (1103) | Send Message
     
    I agree. People are over optimistic about the iPad sales based on the iPhone 5s sales. iPad is a product deemed to be saturated much faster than iPhone. In the US, people only need to pay $199 to upgrade to the latest iPhone, but they need to pay at least $499 for the latest iPad. The marginal benefit is much smaller.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    Right -- as the Android ecosystem catches up to the iOS ecosystem, people will start thinking very hard about the price difference.

     

    I love my iPhone 5, but I'm up for a new cell phone on Verizon next year, and I heard that there maybe a Verizon-hosted Google phone (Nexus) by that time, so I will be taking a hard look at my options.

     

    Similarly, the Nexus 7 and Nexus 10 look like great tablets, among many others that are similarly priced or much cheaper than an iPad.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    The thing NO ONE seems to ever talk about is the fact that many people have spent. 100$ of dollars on apps, music and movies which all can be used on the new upgrade. Bought my wife a kindle Hd because it was cheaper but I have barely used it because I'm not about to buy the apps I want twice.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Depends which ipad your upgrading from. I see people selling my version for 400$ on eBay and I bought the new one for 765$ after tax. With as much as I use mine the upgrades will be noticed.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    > 100$ of dollars on apps, music and movies which all can be
    > used on the new upgrade.

     

    I'm sure it's a mere coincidence, but they all can be used on the old device too. :-)
    1 Nov 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • ShortSlaver
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    And now you have a vastly inferior experience. You didn't save $300 - you wasted $200.

     

    You can get a cheap drink at the bar and not really enjoy it or you can pay for premium and actually get benefit from the money you've earned.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Point is it is a reason not to buy another brand, not a reason to upgrade in the first place.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • jdragon
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    And what are you going to store on a tablet that is content and app deficient? 90 gig of nothingness ...
    3 Nov 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3793) | Send Message
     
    "And what are you going to store on a tablet that is content and app deficient? 90 gig of nothingness ..."

     

    It's great for music/movie storage, especially on the go if you don't/can't tap into the cloud.
    3 Nov 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • kimboslice
    , contributor
    Comments (1557) | Send Message
     
    As tiger states above, some people will choose kindles, androids or surfaces.

     

    But, Apple will sell a lot of the new iPads over Christmas.

     

    I'm a shareholder and a devoted Apple fanboy and I also have an Android tablet that I just love (Hisense Sero 7 pro=$129!)

     

    But I'm no fool, Apple is gonna sell a zillion of these and iPhones.
    For me, Christmas comes early: Apple pays the dividend Nov. 11 and I take mine in the form of shares of AAPL.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (543) | Send Message
     
    Does it really matter how long the line is? Chipotle's line can be five people deep. The important factor is, it's always five people deep. It really hard for them to increase unit sales yoy with a long or short line that never ends. Reminds me of Apple. Has anyone seen a store empty while open. Both iPads are going to sell very well. It's really very simple to figure out. The refresh is with the A7 and M7 chip. The A7 controls flow. The M7. Controls what you can do with that flow. The A7, is the leader in mobile, the M7 is the key that Apple unlocks all the innovative applications which will start flowing out of their pipeline. They will be able to bring new technology streaming seamlessly into your phone, pad, lap top, desk, or any other device that they introduce to their family of computers while you are sleeping. No other company the the same field is even close to Apple. They think they are, but they just don't know it. Yes, Apple took a pit stop, and they are still in the led. Everyone else knows they will have to take one too. The trouble is they won't have a clue on what to do when their car is in the pit, just idling, while Apple's cart is in the process of lapping them.
    1 Nov 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line: this is a great tablet! It will sell well. It seems more like the mini than the big iPads....smaller than the 2, significantly. Faster than a nice two year old laptop, a little weird to see it loading pages. LTE and wifi are really fast. It is the first tablet I see actually replacing laptos--definitely adds capabilities not found in a laptop. Pages, numbers, keynote are nice, simple. A big long term winner, I suspect! Remember, the retina mini is expected to outsell the Air!
    1 Nov 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • civ-e
    , contributor
    Comments (392) | Send Message
     
    why would an analyst, who presumably has important things to do (or analyze) , go to a store and hand count the exact number of people standing there in a particular moment in time. wouldn't it suffice to see that the line was approximately x blocks long and call it a day.
    1 Nov 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    > an analyst, who presumably has important things to do

     

    I'm not sure that's a particularly good presumption. :-)
    1 Nov 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • civ-e
    , contributor
    Comments (392) | Send Message
     
    oh yes, maybe i should have said "who i would hope has more important things to do".
    1 Nov 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Snoopy1
    , contributor
    Comments (1116) | Send Message
     
    Given Munster said the Apple TV would be out by last Christmas, counting people in line is probably the most productive thing he's done all year.
    2 Nov 2013, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • cshoxie
    , contributor
    Comments (294) | Send Message
     
    Great news! Stock is only down 15 this week.
    1 Nov 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • waltvital
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    And will be 600 by mid January! Time will tell......good luck to all
    1 Nov 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5320) | Send Message
     
    The share price for me now is a six bagger ....large amt of shares purchased @85.....but 2012 sucked......

     

    Anecdotal.......My iPad 4 seems pretty fresh ... Got it for a present last Xmas...prob won't upgrade til after holidays it is as fast as I need, it seems....iOS 7 def was a nice free upgrade..thanx Tim...

     

    ....I may have bought an ibigscreen if they would have had one available for holiday.....am purchasing more appletv's for Xmas presents ..the user experience and the ecosystem is very sticky...
    1 Nov 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • flabingo
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    Went to the Valley Fair Mall in San Jose, Microsoft store empty, HTC display empty, Apple store, which is 50 % smaller than the Microsoft store! had about 85 people with a line that started at night with 30 people at 2:00 PM. The IPAD Air is awesome light and smaller in depth, but screen is same. For anybody using the faster speed in their task, it is unbelievable. Trading in your existing IPAD is a no brainer. And the software
    That is yet to be announced, will take advantage of the much faster speed. Remember that if you get the bigger capacity, and cellular, you will get the money back when you sell it. You owe it to yourself to go to a store and see and feel it. You get the impression that Apple is becoming a software giant. It will not be long until the schools will replace books with these devices. Imagine going to college and never having to buy a book, and with SIRI sending messages without having to type. We are limited by our imagination
    But watching the grand kids teaching their grandparents is incredible.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • dougsull
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I was at one of the Apple stores in San Jose at 3:00 pm this afternoon and there still was a line waiting to buy the IPad Air.
    1 Nov 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5320) | Send Message
     
    Glad to hear there are lines it is a good sign..won't be long enough for the analysts I am sure ...
    1 Nov 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    I see Munster has started pre-assigning channel fill numbers after he missed the iPhone 5 estimate by 80%...
    2 Nov 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3793) | Send Message
     
    uh oh....

     

    Samsung edges Apple in tablet-satisfaction survey

     

    http://cnet.co/1asCZgz

     

    http://cnn.it/18OtD8t
    2 Nov 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Simchad
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    I bought the new air in Staples. No line. Upgraded from iPad 3. Great tablet. People who can afford will upgrade.
    3 Nov 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Macnor
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    What about flash ?? On Ipad Air ?
    Long time shareholder
    In Denmark line is long
    3 Nov 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • PACKER man
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    After constant problems with WINTEL stuff, IPAD is Heaven sent! The Apple closed system (no virus EVER) makes Apple worth the money...I have saved enough $$$ by not having to buy annual virus protection that my IPAD Air is free, PLUS I buy the future Apple product from 64 bit processor and A7 chip, what not to love????
    3 Nov 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5320) | Send Message
     
    @packer man......My sentiments exactly..... goodbye wintel forever........those were horrible years.....I didn't want to learn to be a programmer other things to do..

     

    Too many hobbies not enough lifetimes.....
    3 Nov 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • privacy1015
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    I upgraded from ipad 2 to Air. Did I NEED to, no but the fact that I sold my Gen 2 ipad for close to 200 bucks and it was probably reaching its recharging cycle limit was reason enough to buy Air which is the best tablet out there. IMO, Ipad Air is a technological wonder that is beautifully made.
    4 Nov 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
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