Seeking Alpha

BlackBerry higher on Qualcomm report; Fairfax reportedly fails to get funding

  • After barely moving in response to a report Cerberus is thinking of teaming up with BlackBerry's (BBRY) co-founders, shares are up 1.7% AH in response to an update indicating Qualcomm is in talks to join the effort.
  • Meanwhile, in a report that's unlikely to surprise many, sources tell Bloomberg Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial has failed to secure the financing it needs for its $9/share bid, ahead of a Monday deadline.
  • Fairfax's advisors, BofA and BMO, have reportedly been "rebuffed by other lenders" whom they reached out to. Credit Suisse is said to have passed after finding "tepid demand" among loan investors for financing a BlackBerry bid.
  • Watsa has said Fairfax, which owns 9.9% of BlackBerry, won't be putting any more of its own money into BlackBerry to help pay for an acquisition.
Comments (67)
  • Richard0623
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
     
    Do you think if you were Cerberus and that consortium, you would wait till FF fails to attain funding and see BBRY plunge and load up on shares and then make an offer where you have a majority holding?
    1 Nov 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Wasn't going to tender at $9 share anyway
    1 Nov 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • William Ford
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    agreed! this type of tender was nothing more than a "ruse"! and the SEC and OSC stood by and allowed it.
    and do you not think if BBRY viable and the desire of someone a deal would have been made already.
    2 Nov 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • sharke
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    sometimes its better to cut. adding on position wont help you.
    4 Nov 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • PharmSterZzZ
    , contributor
    Comments (206) | Send Message
     
    CEO and Fairfax set everything up so they can look for a buyer. I knew it. Everything is a set up here. I hope there is a buyer next week. If we don't have a buyer, this stock will go down more.
    1 Nov 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • mapshop1@optonline.net
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    called "Stalking Horse"
    1 Nov 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • tracey.
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    the most weird buyout/sale ive witnessed /fake offers.stock never acting like it would happen,just odd
    1 Nov 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • cagi
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    A refresher on what exactly has to happen with $BBRY by Nov. 4 - Read the letter from Fairfax to BlackBerrys board http://t.co/5TmFBP2Mlh
    It was articulated to get the short sellers
    2 Nov 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • sfinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (906) | Send Message
     
    It was pretty obvious this is unfinanable even @ $9. If Fairfax can't get a deal, neither will Cerebus/Lazaridis.

     

    It kinda determines how the real buyers play it. If they can stay patient this long, might as well wait a little longer.
    1 Nov 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • tiger8896
    , contributor
    Comments (614) | Send Message
     
    Don't expect QCOM to make a difference. They're not buying the whole company just to get a few patents. Pretty significant news that Fairfax couldn't get the financing, 4.7B should have been a piece of cake to finance if BBRY business wasn't in such bad shape.

     

    I would expect the strategic buyers have come to the same conclusion as the banks, there's too much risk and uncertain rewards to be buying the whole company. Now let's see what Cerberus and Lazaridis have to say.
    1 Nov 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • svrionis
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    I think this is worth more then $9 in pieces, but very difficult to get much more then $9 for the whole thing unless someone like Google with their recent law suit overpays for the whole enchilada just to get the patents to make the Rockstar lawsuits go away. This is not that far fetched as Google bid 4.4 billion for the patents alone. The Nortel patents that Blackberry is part owned of in the Rockstar Consortium are very key to not just mobile but Google's core business. It seems like an awful coincidence that the law suit came yesterday. The Facebook interest or at least portrayed interest makes a lot more sense then too. Let's make Google jealous! My guess also is Fairfax would much rather sell this in pieces for more as would AIMCO while Lazaridis wants to keep it together. Neither Fairfax nor AIMCO or any Canadian pension fund really want to run this they just want a solid return.
    1 Nov 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • sharke
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    prem watsa credibility is at stake. oh well......
    1 Nov 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • contrarianwise
    , contributor
    Comments (1064) | Send Message
     
    Prem said he was oversubscribed a month ago
    1 Nov 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • mirage12
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    What a dirty game. Makes you wonder why shorts stuck to their guns. Filthy insiders.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • mirage12
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Terrible news. $9 seems to be the ceiling. This thing could open much lower Monday if FF pulls out. Let the lawsuits commence. What a hoax.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • usajordi
    , contributor
    Comments (207) | Send Message
     
    Never liked Prem Watsa, does not look straight forward!
    I thing he made up with PR agencies his resume as a pristine investor.
    People have to remove him immediately of being considered the Warren Buffet of Canada!
    First, second parts never were good; second is an insult to Mr. Buffet
    that they try to put or compare PW at any level close to him!
    Third the guy who tried to steal 250 MIllion with a false offer, should suffer some rejection as a person in Canada and in the Financial World, and we all know he deserve it!
    He made no favor to Canada with his acts at BBRY that lately had been the worst example of how incompetent people can damage a company very fast!
    PW and TH should stay away of BBRY immediately!
    BS and BOD should also resign and new capable management should take the command of the company as soon as possible!
    2 Nov 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    @Jordi

     

    "People have to remove him immediately of being considered the Warren Buffet of Canada!"

     

    Here here!

     

    And while we're at it, can we stop calling Faifax the Berkshire Hathaway of the north. And Waterloo the Silicon valley of the north?

     

    Never really cared much for these analogies, and now find them somewhat insulting.
    2 Nov 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    My gosh you could get called out on so much stuff, but there’s only so many hours in a day and I have a business to run... Kia, why don't you stop saying stop calling Waterloo the silicon Valley of the North? How is that somewhat insulting or demeaning? It gives lay people a reference point or perspective in relation to other better known entities, such as Silicon Valley..

     

    So, what, it isn't? What tech-community spawned BB and hundreds of other tech-cos? Take a look at highly ranked Waterloo University cranking out tens of thousands of engineering and tech grad for decades (who go to at least 141 countries worldwide, and of which PW is Chancellor):

     

    According to a study of International Journal of Scientometrics, infometrics and biometrics, there are some 17,000 universities pan-planet, of which University of Waterloo ranks in the 99th and 7/10ths percentile for engineering and technology (46th) according to 2013 QS World University Rankings :

     

    http://bit.ly/18PJlQz

     

    The KW area, particulary Waterloo, is an international technological hub that houses such international brands and tech leaders as KIK, Open Text, Christie Digital systems, and Google Canada to name a few.

     

    Further, the big W boasts a huge community eco-sytem/small biz tech incubation infrastructure regardless of BB. I would say SVOTN is most definitely not a cliche. It is perfectly appropriate and maybe even punching above our typical USA/CAN national 10-1 scale visa vis Waterloo/Santa Clara Valley. Waterloo, the little (tech) engine that could. Pride and Joy of Ontario.

     

    Ahh yes, Waterloo, the Silicon Valley Of The North.
    3 Nov 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    @Mark,

     

    It bothers me because I've lived here in Silicon Valley my while life,

     

    " KIK, Open Text, Christie Digital systems, and Google Canada to name a few. "

     

    Relatively speaking? A few no-name nothings, and lol at trying to include one of google's many satellite parks as your own.

     

    Now lets look at some notable names (Fortune 1000) headquartered in Silicon Valley (you know, the real one)

     

    Adobe Systems
    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
    Apple Inc.
    Cisco Systems
    eBay
    Intel
    Intuit
    Nvidia
    Oracle
    Sun Microsystems
    Yahoo!
    Adobe Systems
    Advanced Micro Devices (http://bit.ly/IGAsgJ)
    Agilent Technologies
    Apple Inc.
    Applied Materials
    Brocade Communications Systems
    Cisco Systems
    eBay
    Facebook
    Google
    Hewlett-Packard
    Intel
    Intuit
    Juniper Networks
    KLA Tencor
    LSI Logic
    Marvell Semiconductors
    Maxim Integrated Products
    National Semiconductor
    NetApp
    Netflix
    Nvidia
    Oracle Corporation
    Salesforce.com
    SanDisk
    Sanmina-SCI
    Symantec
    Western Digital Corporation
    Xilinx
    Yahoo!

     

    No comparison Mark, not even close.
    3 Nov 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    KIA, who said was it was remotely close? I did mention 10 to 1-- an accepted usa-can metric-- so since it is a thousand percent higher so you had BETTER come up with 10X the companies... which you did. But while that's an impressive list of great brands (which nobody can deny, in fact SV is an amazing anomaly really), it still doesn't refute my claim that our KW area is well within the accepted USA/CAN 10 to 1 and in fact as I stated better than the 10-1...hence more than worthy of the moniker SVOTN--

     

    Please refer to the 2 links that let's compare the two economies in question. Here you will see the combined economy of Tech-rich Waterloo to be $22 Billion vs Silicon Valley at $177 Billion--- validating the statement of KW punching above its normal weight class of 10 to 1, and in fact its more like 8 to 1. USA GDP to Can...

     

    ( SV)
    The San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara metropolitan region, comprising Santa Clara County and San Benito County, was ranked as the highest performing metropolitan area in the US in 2012, ahead of Austin, Texas and Raleigh, North Carolina, according to the Milken Institute.[13] The GDP of the metro area reached $176.7 billion in 2011
    source: http://bit.ly/1844B5F

     

    (SVOTN)
    Waterloo Region, known as Canada’s Technology Triangle, has developed the infrastructure necessary to support the pioneering efforts of local industry in everything from wireless to hybrid car technologies. With more than 150 local research centres and 550 technology companies, Waterloo Region is responsible for producing world-renowned products such as Research In Motion’s BlackBerry and Toyota’s Lexus RX 350.
    GDP of $ 21.5 billion and exports of $11.4 billion in 2006
    source: http://bit.ly/1844yH4

     

    Of course it's slightly off topic, but both of these entities pale in comparison to the world's top city-state-kingdoms such as the Greater Tokyo Area--the area has the largest metropolitan economy in the world, with a total GDP (nominal) of approximately US$1.9 trillion-- over 10 X again over that of mighty Silicon Valley.

     

    Re 'no name nothings', that's harsh. I would not consider KIK brand ( who also hails from Waterloo); with over 80 million users worldwide to be a 'no name nothing' As well maybe you have heard of a little non-no name nothing called Open Text--with over 5500 employees worldwide, in 140 countries and over 50,000 customers. from the SVOTN, Waterloo..

     

    And then we have much maligned, despised, and loved worldwide iconic brand, the Blackberry.. no matter how you slice n dice, one cannot call it a no name nothing, nor would I consider the subsidiary of BB, BBM, the # 1 (free) app in a country of 1.25 billion souls to be a no name nothing...

     

    Since it's Sunday I killed an hour and compiled a SS of App Annie's top free apps on both Android/iOS... and for all those who are already saying that BBM is dropping off the charts, I have some news for you: The BBM is still top 5 in 75 countries across the 2 o/s's( whole lotta #1's including India); with countries representing over 3 Billion people....and no the numbers were not double dipped or counted twice across both o/s's
    3 Nov 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    The GDP of Waterloo figures reported for 2006 because that was when BlackBerry was still actually selling phones?
    3 Nov 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Hmm, funny.

     

    Factually incorrect though, as well as being (typically, short); harsh.

     

    Well whether your just being 'funny', baiting, or just ( massively) uninformed, (I won't say the 4th option) I'll play along for the benefit of readers, heres your info RJ:

     

    BB-Revenue for the fiscal year ended March 4, 2006 was $2.07 billion, up 53% from $1.35 billion last year. Total handheld devices shipped in the quarter were approximately 1.1 million, for a total of approximately 4.0 million handheld devices shipped during fiscal 2006. http://bit.ly/1cEQvve

     

    So BB sold 4 million units at 2 billion bucks sales for the whole year 2006

     

    And anyone with actual skin in the game, assuming you have some, would know the BB sold almost 4M handsets just this this quarter alone… in the midst of a recovery/right-sizing/... out.

     

    And just half the FYE 2014 sales of 4.6 billion bucks is already 260% annualized yearly revenue higher than the year you cited 2006.. ( Q1 2014 $3.1B + Q2 2014 $1.6B ); never mind what comes our way Q3, Q4.

     

    2006 BB vs 2013 BB is rediculous but thanks for the laff

     

    Wow I find myself defending the good community of KW against the shorts haha-- and while the unfortunate BB layoff of thousands of individuals in the W area has no doubt had an effect, dont worry about KW they have averaged 1.5 to 1.6% growth through last ten years regardless of BB's ebb and flow. http://bit.ly/1cEQvve

     

    Facts and shorts, are they allergic to each other?
    3 Nov 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    And whilst your lol-ing at the provincial putdown 'Google satellite park' moniker, less parochialism, condescension and tsk tsk, and more fact checking: take note, this same Google office has a real engineering office, with real engineering staff, not an Apple store or a depot as readers may surmise from your comment.

     

    Waterloo Google engineers have worked on Chrome, Ads, Mobile Gmail, Mobile Google+ and Commerce products.
    They’ve launched a number of high-impact products like Google+ for Android and iOS, and Gmail for Mobile, while making a ton of important contributions to Ads infrastructure and the Chrome browser. they were named best place to work in Canada in 2009 and 2011 by the Great Place to Work Institute
    http://bit.ly/1bR9oKp

     

    In fact, it was Google’s engineering team in Waterloo that led the development of gmail, which in June 2012 counted about 425 million active users.
    http://bit.ly/1bR9oKr

     

    Even so, never claimed it was Google Mecca Proper, only a part of the SVOTN

     

    The above piece also outlines an Environment of innovation. Developing cutting-edge, high-quality products is easier to do in Waterloo. The region has more than 140 research institutions, among them the world-famous Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics and the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing and Institute for Nanotechnology.

     

    Lol indeed
    4 Nov 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (844) | Send Message
     
    @Mark Emerson

     

    Where have you been...

     

    We have been listening to the naysayers spouting half-truths for so long that I can't tell you how nice it is to read your comments. Not too often that you actually get to hear the facts, thank you.
    4 Nov 2013, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Mark,

     

    I'm here mainly to be a deflator of false expectations, of which a factual person such as yourself must admit sometimes present themselves on these pages. Failing that, I needle for everyone's enjoyment, but never maliciously.

     

    Would it not be true that Waterloo's GNP is bolstered by actual manufacturing whereas the Intels and Oracles either manufacture elsewhere or sell software which has an insignificant physical cost relative to its revenue? Apple alone had revenue of $170B in fiscal 2013 but hardly any domestic (USA) production.

     

    Since we are talking about size, would it not be more realistic to discuss revenues? To do otherwise is to dismiss multinationals, such as Coca Cola or Nestle, from being as influential and significant as they are.

     

    Unlike my friend Mr. K, I have no great affection for Silicon Valley so I should be fair and point out that Santa Clara ALONE has three beauty colleges and a school for learning how to drive trucks. We too take our education seriously.
    4 Nov 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    While I am far from ‘convinced of my own goodness‘, as I too have an agenda and objective, and motives (that the dang thing go up duhh) I felt guilty at letting just a few here defend BB when I too had something to add.

     

    Re ‘where have you been’ wow thank you glad my input strikes any chords at all, it’s validating I’m not alone. Family, life, business, investing in that order means you may or may not hear from me on this board, frequently or non frequently or only when The Shorts get me goin haha… And this is true probably of other longs who fight the fight for a few days-weeks-months, then get weary of the machine of ‘the gang of 4 and the false longs’ who grind em down ..or maybe they get tired f the BB and sell; for me if I ever did selI could not EVER see myself following any equity without a position, except for the odd headline in the paper or the 11 oclock news and you say ya I used to hava a thing with her (BB)-- but for now, until I’m not, which is a long time away, I too am long n strong.

     

    But refuting the half truths, no matter how ez, takes a fair amount of time. And the Unholy Quintet “gang of 4’of Andreas Hopf (5.1k), Marcap(2.3k), Randal James (1.3), and Kia (4.3k) collective output of industrial strength volumes of comments ( approximately 12,500 yes I’m sure not all Bb related, no time to check) that I could never keep up with, just the ones that get me going haha.
    So for every + comment there are consecutive many multiple - ones.. Tag-teaming the positive commenter, with sarcasm and humour/ wit as RJ just did to me talking about when BB last sold phones in 2006 etc..designed to make the positive look ‘deluded’ or ‘unrealistic’,or at least discount his reasonings why he invested in the first place, when I would assume most people putting their money on Black would spend a lot of time before picking a side, much as |I would think the shorts would.

     

    Even so, I am of the opinion that no-one here moves the share price up or down even one cent up by wishing it so however eloquently we comment yay or nay. This SA just a marketplace where facts, good stuff about BB, and yes bad facts about BB, collide and trade.

     

    They, we, wage battle in a 3 way hand to hand combat with the three protagonists yay facts, nay facts and mr BS haha, much like the real Stock Market.

     

    O and by the way some information does transfer between us..

     

    The shorts while spouting their thesii, and some half truths, also bring truths to the table or a sober second thought (oops that was the senate...too soon)-- and I guess they have every right to be here and choose to plunk their money down and invest or bet against a company ( even if I don’t like the amoral aspect of betting on a company shutting its doors and a brand disappearing whilst laying off thousands upon thousands of real people and the effect on the families, divorces n broken homes etc); the system allows them to be here, so waddaya gonna do? Call them out on lies n half truths, hope your stock does what you want it to do based on your own gut and research, including all the players here.

     

    Agreed about the half-truths, but there are legitimate cannon fodder the Bb mgmt has handed the shorts on a silver platter. But as Arduino Rasb has eloquently stated only the good and long suffering shareholders who have placed their bets own BB, not WS media, not the BOD, not the shorts (though @ 140M they sort of defacto zombie-non-own it)--And it is High time for BB to take their own image back with extreme prejudice from all these lowlifes who have hijacked the BB‘s own image-- it reminds me of the childhood fable Chronicles of Narnia and how strong the Lion was--- taking the beating and savaging by the wicked queen of the North‘s minions, the lion had to give up his life for the child… and the lion could at any moment rise up and slay his weaselly attackers, but kept true to his commitment..

     

    And in honour of today’s wonderful announcement that BB is going it alone, now for something completely different:

     

    For the next 3-4 minutes I’m going to channell usajordi, respect.

     

    (Now, play this song while you read this:http://bit.ly/HF3T8c and turn. It. UP)

     

    But in regards to the Great Aslan in Narnia lying down, in BB’s case there is no reason to lay there man! Get up! Counter attack! Go after Samsung with our own commercials lampooning Samsung lampooning Apple! Make a commercial of them makin a commercial goofing on us and we krash it! Break in on the filming of them goofing on us and show em we are polite but don’t mess with us! It’s OUR turn! .

     

    Time to get that Marketing Department do a REAL marketing campaign!

     

    Get that actor who portrayed laid back n kool Apple in those tv commercials from the 2000’s and now he’s our Blackberry guy --- and the befuddled MS guy the apple guy! Hire some funny writers and goof on Samsung! Does SS have the corner on sarcasm and humour? Comon we’re Canadian dammit - we‘re funny aren’t we?? Remember the beer commercial I! Am! Canadian!!! All these guys have weak spots too do they not? Get the targets exposed parts it's are all soft underbelly man! Hangin fruit! What have we got to lose?? Permission to engage??

     

    Get Ridley Scott to redo the Apple 1984 commercial redux’ and now Apple is ’the machine’ with their greedy-proprietary-pin... n drm and mindless souless liner-uppers and automatons consumers who are being overcharged, tracked and spied on…. Time to play business like we play hockey ! Physical! And get John Cusak as the new spokesman and voice of Blackberry!

     

    Just like in the original ‘1984’’ have the javelin girl hurl the javelin at the screen and brilliantly bright colours burst and break through and release the Z30!! Ahhh the IRONY man! Do the commercial and run it in theatres in 3D movies! BBM Man! Get rid of googoo dolls and get Marias Trench and get some old time gospel song like this song going! Your worldwide n awesome BB u just don’t know it!?!

     

    Get AC/DC back in Black song and maka killer kool commercial that shows how Z30 is great! Get 10 up-n-comin movie directors make 10 commercials---put em on you tube--vote for best prime time tv commercial candidate! Get real people on commercials and show a BB/BBM saved their life, their families life or saved their business! Touch people with emotion! You feel me? Show the rise, yes hubris, yes, fall (important to address this)--and rebirth of BB!

     

    Show 10,000 employees standing, defiant, on BB head office soil, and a crane shot saying Thank you Canada and world! We ain’t going anywhere! Say we are sorry and we get it now!

     

    Common BB STOP being an insurance company and freaking INSPIRE US!!

     

    Make people identify with what you now are-- the underdog!

     

    And what you CAN BE! GREAT! Fight! Give it back to em! They have it coming to them don’t hold back! Comon BB Fight! ( Ohh Ohhh OHH OHHooo ohh ooo oh)

     

    GET-UP ! You have power, MIT-smarts and you have tools! We are all backing you! Phazers on S-T-U-N! Make a Z1-ipod killer today!( A Z10 without the phone guts but otherwise same,as z10)

     

    And give it free to the first lucky 50 million owners of the Z30! Give Apple some of its medicine with a worldwide launch of our own 50 million ZYPODs!!!!!

     

    That’s just a Z10 with no antennae ! Youv already done all the work just decontent it and sell it with a 64+64 gig sd card! Comon isn’t it all about LEVERAGE! Of which we have SO much! Use it!

     

    THINKBIG!! Write NATIVE Instagram and whatever else the kids want and do it all THIS WEEK with 10,000 code writers in India, NOW!

     

    Who do we have to get in there that will fight for us? Where’s our Churchill/Iococca! Mr. Mulally, you like a challenge can you come up?

     

    And bring up this kid and put him on lead marketing BBM team! http://bit.ly/1845yen

     

    Comon you still hava chance BB!! Time to get down and dirty! Lets not just carpe diem --- lets grab it and reef its head off! Let’s steal victory from jaws of defeat! IZIT REALLY that hard?? WHO’S with me? The power of ideas can trump all! And we have a worldwide distribution system!
    I see such huge potential in this great company, it’s why I’m here!

     

    ASLAN! You know how strong you are! Let loose and ARISE! And in 5 years WHO, will be buying WHO? BB! They’re not late, they’re early!

     

    Ahem, cough cough, I’m leaving channeling USAJordi, Scotty, you’ve got the conn.
    4 Nov 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    @zack

     

    "We have been listening to the naysayers spouting half-truths for so long that I can't tell you how nice it is to read your comments. "

     

    Read his comments and enjoy! However...

     

    Today I sold my Mar 2014 $8 puts for 35% profit.

     

    PS. The short interests were right all along and had you and the other longs paid heed, you wouldn't be circling the drain with your $BBRY investment.

     

    Word of advice: Listen to the shorts and factor their thinking into your investment making decisions.
    4 Nov 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    "the Unholy Quintet “gang of 4’of Andreas Hopf (5.1k), Marcap(2.3k), Randal James (1.3), and Kia (4.3k)"

     

    Yay! We're famous!
    4 Nov 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    An Addenedum to my idea about the Z-pod or Zuh-Pod or ZY-pod (A Z10, And/or Z30 with the phone compenetry taken out, a competitor to the Ipod)...

     

    Apple, through excellent marketing and a customer focus based experience, has been kicking and playing in BB's sandbox since 2007, isn't it time we had some fun in theirs? The Z10/30's architecture is already built why not fill in the space where the phone componentry with a 10,000 MA battery and run circles around the ipod battery life and even lap it in heavy usage?

     

    Comon guys you can do it, it ain't rocket science, not even close!

     

    Imagine in your minds eye, a 30 second spot with this song beating in the background, ( again pls cue up this song http://bit.ly/HF3T8c )

     

    Play exactly at 2:30 showing the Z-POD10
    and imagine a completely play exactly a completely white back drop ( yes ala APPL )

     

    And the grafix show the Black and white Zpods dancing until 2:50 of the song, and grafix says, "YOU want Colours? ...3:08 WE GOT COLOURS!" render a streaming explosion of colours 311- And at exactly 3:17 of the song, release the coloured ZZ"s!! and the black and white Z-PODs coming to life in 8 Colours!!

     

    Enough content for an extended 60 second spot that starts with a sleepy ethereal music as the pre-cursor to the ENERGY SPOT? YES? Then do it already! and run it on every major network in the world!

     

    Comon the company that pioneered wireless email/encryption/push email can't do something as trivial an orange/red/yellow/blue... coloured cases?

     

    Come ON!
    You need ideas? They're out there!
    4 Nov 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Every dog has his day. Enjoy yours :)
    So if you cashed out your position will you continue to dialogue with us? I know were it I, I wouldn't; but more the merrier I guess.

     

    Imo it ain't over, it's just beginning. While it looks good at the moment for shorts it is a long play for me not a short one and no pressure to sell especially given the recent changes they are making. So happy they are still in the public arena so we can participate!

     

    With billions in cash and zero debt, the drain is nowhere in sight for me. Only sellers converting paper losses to real ones are circling the drain, I'm unmoved by today or Sept 28th, plenty more quarters, and years to come. looking forward to the Dec one.

     

    Not deluded, maybe an element of stubbornness, but while it's well within the realm the shorts have it right in the short to medium term (gloat away today), I believe the longs have it right in the mid-long term. Ahh yes the weighing scale will reward us, eventually.

     

    I think.
    4 Nov 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Toastypro
    , contributor
    Comments (371) | Send Message
     
    The original Gang of Four was the name given to a political faction composed of four Chinese Communist Party officials after Mao die.

     

    At least you guys are famous in Blackberry circle. Congrat selling your puts today. I covered my put protections as well after seeing the BBRY SP was forming the low base at $6.50.
    4 Nov 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Mark,

     

    I keep hearing the old BB King classic "The Thrill is Gone" and it's too bad as that was never a fave. I like the management change though am really annoyed if that included the parachute option.

     

    And here I thought PW had resigned from the BOD and the next thing you know he's back on and a leader on the compensation committee. Wasn't he on the same when TH's compensation plan was approved? The very next time a ballot arrives with his name on it I hope disgruntled longs have mounted a counter ballot and he is resigned to being an insurance salesman rather than tech tycoon.

     

    But I'll watch from the sidelines, as usual. BB's recovery may have started today, but will take several quarters to show headway. Unless they introduce several new phones which will cause this year to repeat. Yesterday there was news that a unit of the Australian government was picking up BES. Keep it up.

     

    Oh, and thanks for the notoriety! :)
    4 Nov 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Glad someone picked up on dat
    4 Nov 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    LOL Isn't recognition great.
    Well maybe you've never heard this version:

     

    http://bit.ly/184ZXof

     

    or with Clapton:

     

    http://bit.ly/184ZXEs

     

    Or for those classical music fans, the perhaps most unlikely juxtaposition of 2 artists on the stage ever:

     

    http://bit.ly/184ZXEy

     

    Most importantly, here's another old blues classic for yall GOF (Gang of Four):

     

    http://bit.ly/1heh0gV

     

    Still Long n Strong/ fat lady sings/he who laffs last /yadda yadda yadda
    4 Nov 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    I think the fat lady choked on a ham sandwich.
    She won't be singing anywhere but for the angles.
    4 Nov 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    You have to admit he has good taste and timing... in music.

     

    Blues is apropos today. Thanks Mark.
    4 Nov 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    More like a temporary case of indigestion imo. I think and hope a year from now we will be looking at a different landscape than the current view affords. Could be wrong about that, but don't think I am.
    4 Nov 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I'm with Arduino Raspb on beer ( and blues ) today...So glad you enjoyed the music!.. you get me pickin the lyrics of the Buddy G song? " It's your time right now babeh..oohhh I gotta feelins gonna be my time.....after while..."

     

    Another poster sagely advised to take a month off this, and then comeback to it --think I just might try kicking that off when I head to Cuba this month..
    4 Nov 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Mark

     

    There is that old tax deal about selling a position with a major loss and waiting it out a month to re-enter. It is unlikely that in a month the stock ignites and goes to $10, so you probably get an entry near where it is today with today's basis cost and a tax loss for 2013. It isn't risk-free, as during the month they might sell off messenger or... or... similarly, selling today locks in $6.50 and the stock could go lower, offering you a larger tax write down (perverse).

     

    These are for US holders, unsure if CDN laws stack up the same way on holding periods.

     

    The principal risk here is that you are still rewarding the stock with your emotional loyalty even though it might not deserve it. This is what happened with most of the bubble stocks. You'd own it at $50 and maybe it had even split once for you. A couple of bad quarters, down to $12 and the thought is "Gee, this has been a great stock to me... I can't desert it now!"

     

    Remember that the stock, the managers and the BOD don't know you exist, they are just doing what they do and perhaps not well.

     

    I am NOT saying that is the case here, just keep your wits and give it the 'sniff test' now and then.
    4 Nov 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Reality check yes.. The love is definitely one-way and unrequited I do realize that and I'm fine with it...

     

    re: 30 days in n out I'm Canadian..

     

    Yes Mgmt and especially Boulben did a terrible job marketing the z launch, with that super-forgettable super bowl ad and flying carpet video panels.. they really did blow a lot money for nothing..despite what you say I feel a ( probably illogical ) affinity to the BB and want this underdog to come roaring back...not sure why but to me it's more than a stock...go ahead and savage me, but misery loves co., and methinx I'm not alone lol

     

    And when Rogers announced they were going to not even give the Z30 a shot, I asked them to give me the buyout of our 4 phones contract to quit them I was so incensed... I think what 'got' me the most was that on one hand, this great Roger's who placed so much media pressure against free competition ( Verizon) coming up here, was on the other hand kicking them (BB) when they were down..and not even allowing the Z30 to be purchased and hypocritically being anti-competitive when they themselves don't want more competition.

     

    Galling, And they are a Cdn. company..

     

    On that I was definitely not alone, many thousands of Canadians called Roger's out on this, and due to this outcry Rogers flip flopped and are now carrying it.
    4 Nov 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    You guys also have way more time than most of us 20-200 commenter pikers... I tried to keep up with you guys for a couple of days but man it becomes all encompassing!!

     

    It's like playing Monopoly with your big brother back in the day, and you are so screwed and he has multiple hotels on Park place Boardwalk etc and he's loaning you money just so he can continue to beat you... and I say PHHHHHHH-- I'm OUT!! --------------I'M DONE!!

     

    And he's like' wait don't quit, how much money you got, I can loan you more' haha

     

    Maybe if I was retired and could invest fulltime I could yang to your yin all day but you guys are pro in your many thousands of volumes of comments so I'm probably only contest you sporadically, when you get me goin..
    4 Nov 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    That being said I am very very happy the company didn't go for PE-- few quarters and they will hopefully be fine.
    4 Nov 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Ah Mark,

     

    Don't let this l'il setback silence your natural gifts as a commentor. You got the havin' fun part down and I firmly believe we should approach investments with just that in mind and when it stops being fun, grab a new page and start over.

     

    A reasonable argument could be made that BlackBerry is starting over and (nearly) everything from now on will be fresh and promising. Heck there were probably fresh owners who bought in today with precisely that mindset. I like to buy stocks when they are at shoestring level. So keep up the good defense and banter with your fellow CanBerrians. As long as it stays fun.
    5 Nov 2013, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Wow your short yet preaching the merits of BB haha. Yep your right about the fun part, hope to continue to have fun with it, and hope we are finally getting close to the real turnaround. Mr Chen seems skilled at it.
    5 Nov 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1006) | Send Message
     
    Fairfax using the media to try to pump out interest and it's still a flat. Blackberry patents are the only thing companies want...RIP with Palm.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Roll up the RIM
    , contributor
    Comments (211) | Send Message
     
    If the FFH offers falls because they can't find funding, why should any other bidder feel the need to offer more than 9?
    2 Nov 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    Look, if someone offers $10 dollars a share, most shareholders will tell them to take a walk. Blackberry is a real company. It has real value and real assets. It is owned by the shareholders, NOT the media, NOT the analysts, NOT the CEO and NOT the BOD. The shareholders will ultimately dictate whether an offer is fair and reasonable. Otherwise they will demand and will arrange for a management team that can do the job they are paid to do. They will cut expenses and re-size to be profitable again. Simple as that.
    2 Nov 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Emerson
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    Hear hear, bang on.
    3 Nov 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • alext1379
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    FF can still wait for the stock to tank and buy it up themselves at $5.
    2 Nov 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure there are some fools who will sell their shares to him for $5. However, most shareholders won't. Point being, it may get down to $5. But not for long, once those timid shareholders are expunged.
    2 Nov 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Raspberry,

     

    While you plan to stay aloof and hold out for your... elevated notion of Blackberry's true worth, the value will plummet directly if Watsa's bid fails. If you read his letter to the BOD, one of the key benefits of going with Watsa was immediate approval by Canadian authorities and an instant familiarity with BBRY's operations and situations.

     

    Assuming no one else steps up to the plate with an even lower bid, it would remain in your hands as it does now and you would... somehow, convince the managers and directors to resign and replace them with _______, who knows _________ about the company. All of which would take _______ months.

     

    In the meantime, the public, already mildly aware of the Canadian Meltdown, will not be touching your phones, signing up as business partners or hooking up their businesses or governments. Revenue will come to a screeching halt and if you thought last quarter's operating results were bad, the party is just starting.

     

    Remember your cash? Well, you still have cash out for salaries and stuff and Jabil and other suppliers want to be paid as well for the work you will be cancelling. As a decent part of today's value of BBRY shares is with the assumption that there is enough remaining cash for a turnaround, expect your buying opportunity to get even better. Soon enough, that turnaround can only be financed by selling stuff. And if the right buyer doesn't come round at the right time, you might have to sell stuff you wanted to keep.

     

    You may well believe your shares are worth $10 or $20 or more. Since millions of other investors disagree, it hardly matters. Be happy with $9 if you can get it because it may be a long and dark winter.
    2 Nov 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    @Randal,

     

    "While you plan to stay aloof and hold out for your... elevated notion of Blackberry's true worth, the value will plummet directly if Watsa's bid fails. If you read his letter to the BOD"

     

    You know, I don't really care what BlackBerry's real or perceived value is. I'm banking on it tanking to $6 and I make my money and get the hell out of this rats nest.

     

    Moral of the story after watching this insanity for 6 months?
    Never, ever buy a stock for nationalistic or love-of-device reasons!
    And lol, especially for nationalistic AND "I love my device" reasons :\

     

    What has happened with Canadians that fell in love with their BB10 devices and purchased stock will be one for the history books. Heck it even puts Apple fanboyism to shame.
    2 Nov 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Gee, Mr. K, now you make me wish I had a 2nd identity so I could pretend to be an Apple fanboy who is OUTRAGED at being called 2nd rate! The blackberry guys don't know nuthin' about loyalty and bulletproof notions of superiority... yadda yadda...

     

    :)
    2 Nov 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    haha! always a pleasure Randal.
    2 Nov 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    I love you notion of 'making money'. Try actually creating something or supporting those that do once in awhile.
    2 Nov 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    Arduino

     

    I was long $BBRY, and long $NOK, and am currently long $MSFT and long $INTC .

     

    Making money on all of my investments, thanks.

     

    BlackBerry blew it big time; so I switched my long position to short like any wise investor would.

     

    PS. If you think investors only 'go long' then you have some financial growing up to do.
    2 Nov 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • User 8592631
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of outcome, 'sources' or 'according to people familiar with the matter' are NEVER reliable. This is one of the most common fake news ploys there is. I'm not saying it's always false, but is often false. Seldom does anyone who really is 'familiar with the matter' have good reason to share that info.
    2 Nov 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Loon-a-tick
    , contributor
    Comments (1559) | Send Message
     
    I had a wonderful dream last night. I dreamt that I got a check from BB in the amount of 67000$. In the dream I cried.
    Only in my dreams.
    2 Nov 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Sean J
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Are you telling me that this stock is cheaper than Groupon?This stock is more than $9/share. If they allow Lenovo to bid, it will be over $10. It is just they are worry about national security.
    2 Nov 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • TS Nelson
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    So looks like there is a consensus here in the Forum:

     

    a) The Fairfax deal won't happen.
    b) nor will any other deal.

     

    both for a lack of financing and interest.

     

    The question is, will the stock price go down a lot more, say to five, or is this to a certain extent already reflected in the share price?
    Nobody really believed Fairfax was going to happen in the first place.
    I think BBRY SP will go down further, the company won't be bought, and as a result will have to face the scrutiny of investors on a quarterly basis.
    All this will be good for BBRY, it'll force the management to make the necessary cuts and adjust to an environment of tougher competition.
    And further down the line the BB10 will hopefully be able to reclaim some market share due to their quality.
    2 Nov 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (8484) | Send Message
     
    Hi TS Nelson

     

    No, the current stock price does not have the failed Fairfax bid priced in.. It tried to on Friday, but then [insert ominous music here] there was coincidental surprise interest by Qualcomm.

     

    $BBRY could drop to $5, but I suspect (sans another bogus surprise) a $6 price is quite likely.
    2 Nov 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe Perm Watsa was just setting this up. It's a matter of the banks not wanting to take a risk, so looks like he will have a tough time getting the financing, but not because he want's to walk away. If the deal dies its because he couldn't get financing. It's in the news, and straight form WSJ so i doubt it's some made up BS.
    3 Nov 2013, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • Crazy Mazy
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Also if Watsa had a hard time it looks like the other consortium will have a hard time too. So it doesn't look good. The Street wants Blackberry to fail that's what its all about.
    3 Nov 2013, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • Toastypro
    , contributor
    Comments (371) | Send Message
     
    Lenovo is a very strong contender for Blackberry. It appears they have the plan and action in progress.
    http://bit.ly/1fdtscl
    3 Nov 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • mallarde
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Big question: if they do not sell will the BoD and CEO at least step aside so that people that want to run the company can step in and try to make a run of this company.

     

    Randal made this point. What is the alternative to someone else buying? Current management and BoD cannot remain in place.
    3 Nov 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2162) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. It's practically a no-brainer.
    3 Nov 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (2626) | Send Message
     
    Oddly enough, the director who replaced Watsa spoke at some length about the situation Blackberry was facing. It was reported on SA as a news item and, of course, there is far too much clutter to easily locate his comments. He's a smart and straight shooter, the sort of fellow one suspects might have led them down a different path.

     

    If enough of the directors realized the gravity of the situation, they might propose a large slate of current and new directors and set an emergency election - assuming it is within their bylaws to do so. From there, if they could craft a strategy of exactly what road they believe leads to salvation, the stock might actually find welcome support. Right now, none of the everyday shareholders know anything and can only judge from past performance, which has been... (it's Sunday) tiresome. I am uncertain of TH's current compensation package and the qualifiers for realizing his parachute. If it was more economical, I'd demote him to busboy until his contract expired.

     

    But, honest to Pete, I have a lot of empathy for you guys and if Watsa fails, you deserve to know what comes next, what the plan is. The plan may not be to my liking or yours, but you deserve at least the level of information that has been so readily passed out to would-be buyers these long months. It might sound great and tie in exactly with what you'd like to see BBRY become. It will serve to reinforce your unease about keeping your investment. Or it might not and you'd curse this waste of time and money. Politics and business have been trending toward transparency. BlackBerry needs to embrace the idea.
    3 Nov 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
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