Seeking Alpha

Pre-market Gainers / Losers

Comments (11)
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4023) | Send Message
     
    Long $GSAT. FCC Releases Proposed Rules For Globalstar Terrestrial Broadband Services Over 22 MHz Of Spectrum: http://bit.ly/1hdoUXS ($GSAT) +>28% in the pre-market. So far so good.

     

    Long $ANEN. We presented this idea at a conference with a view that it is a takeout candidate. Happy to see that come to fruition this morning: http://bit.ly/184yHpI.

     

    Short $BBRY. $BBRY has always been for sale. We track the litigation ratio of inbound versus outbound IP suits as part of the mix on our view of patents and that has skewed very negative for $BBRY.

     

    $HBIO is misleading: it is trading without a spun-off business, HART, today. So it is not really down 14% economically.
    4 Nov 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • irish_bob
    , contributor
    Comments (410) | Send Message
     
    bought Ryanair an hour ago on the London exchange
    4 Nov 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • toddro
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    On a nice $GSAT ride...
    4 Nov 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4023) | Send Message
     
    Good. I think that $3 is a reasonable valuation if they can maximize the value of their spectrum.
    4 Nov 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • toddro
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts of $LF? They would be in that "losers" bracket right now after soft Q4 guidance. I really want to add to my position at this discount...
    4 Nov 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4023) | Send Message
     
    No particular thoughts yet; although, I think that writing the $7.50 puts could be very interesting in the AM.
    4 Nov 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (467) | Send Message
     
    Toddro,
    $LF traded down on very weak guidance for the full year 2013. But the guidance really makes no sense on its face.

     

    Guidance is for $.36 - $.46 normalized EPS for the full year 2013. LF has already earned $.31 normalized EPS through Q3 of 2013 (this is directly from today's 10-K.)

     

    They earned $.40 normalized in last year's Q4 ALONE (also from the 10-K.) So, to hit the midpoint of guidance, this year's Q4 normalized EPS would have to be $.11. That's a drop of nearly 75% from last year's Q4. This year's Q3 was 18% HIGHER than last year's Q3.

     

    So, the guidance makes no sense. Unless profit is just going to fall off a cliff in this year's Q4 (and there's no indication from any other source that it will), the guidance is just nonsense. If they merely match last year's Q4, they make $.71 this year.

     

    The stock traded at $7.50 after hours (though it has bounced to $8.10 by now.) They will have a boatload of cash by early next year, on the order of $4/share.

     

    It's too cheap. Shorts and guidance games will distort the price short term, but the company will continue to make money.

     

    I like the idea from Chris of selling puts to take advantage of the vol, but I'd sell the 10's to capture some upside. We'll be leaving $7.50 behind shortly, and then all you've got is a smallish amount of premium to show for being on the right side of the trade. At least sell the 10's (but maybe wait for a decline back into the 7's to do so) and capture some price appreciation as the market figures out where full year numbers will really end up.
    4 Nov 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • brazil2010
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Any idea if aria pulls through on this one?
    4 Nov 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4023) | Send Message
     
    I don't know. We've done some work on it but have not been tempted.
    4 Nov 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • toddro
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jaginger, I appreciate your thoughts and I agree with idea on the guidance which immediately caught my eye is being odd. I took advantage of the panic and scooped up a nice lot @ 7.80 in the AH market to average down my long position. Cheers,
    4 Nov 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • jaginger
    , contributor
    Comments (467) | Send Message
     
    Good deal. I hope that makes you a lot of money.
    4 Nov 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
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