Strategy for the nimble headed into jobs on Friday


"If the market was too confident about September tapering six weeks ago, it may be too confident about March tapering now," write the strategists at BAML, suggesting traders position themselves for a big payroll number on Friday - short 10-year Treasurys (TLT), long dollars (UUP), particularly vs. the yen (FXY), and long volatility (VXX).

"The balance of risks going into Friday is unusually asymmetric," writes the team, noting a weak number will be discounted as a temporary shock from the shutdown, but a strong print will have the market pricing in a December or January taper.

Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, FSA, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL.

Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, UUPT, UDNT.

Yen ETFs: FXY, YCS, JYN, YCL.

Volatility ETFs: VXX, UVXY, TVIX, XIV, VIXY, SVXY, VXZ, ZIV, VIXM, VQT, XVZ, VIIX, CVOL, VIXH, ACWV, XVIX, PHDG, XXV, TVIZ, IVOP, VIIZ.

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Comments (2)
  • Michael Nau
    , contributor
    Comments (955) | Send Message
     
    It will be nice when we get back to a world in which good news really is good news.
    4 Nov 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Marco Mazzocco, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    Gold would most likely go lower as well on a strong print.
    4 Nov 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
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