Seeking Alpha

Silence on 2014 production says a lot to some Tesla investors

  • Tesla Motors (TSLA) reports its gross margin was 22% in Q3 as it edges closer to a goal of a 25% rate by the end of the year.
  • Deliveries: Tesla delivered 5.5K Model S vehicles in Q3 to beat its own guidance but fell short of some rosy estimates. The automaker plans to deliver slightly under 6K vehicles in Q4 which would bring it to 21,500 deliveries for the year. (PR)
  • TSLA -8.5% AH with the lack of guidance (so far) on 2014 deliveries creating a ripple of worry.
Comments (36)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3955) | Send Message
     
    If its just the lack of 2014 guidance thats causing the drop it would be a buy as surely it'll run back up into the Q4 earnings. It should at least meet Q4 expectations it seems which is good.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    nope
    6 Nov 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3955) | Send Message
     
    @Patent News;
    When you say 'nope' do you mean nope to the first part or the second part?
    6 Nov 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • labas112
    , contributor
    Comments (304) | Send Message
     
    Guidance could be saved for the conference call too.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    yes of course the guidance is saved for the call.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1795) | Send Message
     
    Guess vins may not have been the best estimation.

     

    22% is good, it's very good.

     

    Beating estimates always a good thing.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    That's what everyone has been saying... lol. Nevermind that even if you take VINs into account, that is not telling you when the car is listed as "sold". If I am not mistaken they wait until the car has actually been delivered before counting it as a "sale". It just means that the VINs could be right, to some degree, I mean those are cars that will exist... they just didn't count for Q3. You also have to keep in mind the cars they make that don't count toward "sales", which are going to be their loaners and test cars. I am happy with 5500 :)
    5 Nov 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2291) | Send Message
     
    The 22% margin is the important #, at least until Daimler decides to adopt Tesla's charging technology, as mentioned here: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Then their margins, and even the plans for the Model X and E would suddenly seem far less important.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    Are you suggesting a charging takeover? As in, the car itself doesn't matter, but rather the "fuel" for the car? Cause if so that is an interesting speculation.

     

    But yeah, 22% is VERY good for them :)
    5 Nov 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • HUGE_Gamma
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Based on what (we've) seen from FB / NFLX and GOOG this quarter.. this initial move lower may be a trap.. Would not be suprised if after earnings call or tomorrow stock moves higher.

     

    Of course the bear case that this stock is extremely overvalued is maintained and may be correcting lower even on positive guidance.
    5 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (3775) | Send Message
     
    that what happens when expectations become too high-major disappointment. I'll be a buyer in the low $100's
    5 Nov 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • heloise8
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Me too l just placed a limit order to rebuy Tesla in the low 100s. I changed it like four times. I felt, and I was right, that Tesla was ripe for the picking. I thought it would drift down to 155, and then I thought no, that's too low. I just checked the after market close numbers and it was down to 157! Would have been mad if I had used fresh money to pay 177 ps or more.

     

    Go low Tesla...
    5 Nov 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    id like to buy tesla at $65

     

    but its not happening.

     

    If you think tesla is overpriced at $158 what makes it a buy a say $110??
    5 Nov 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • u01bsb0
    , contributor
    Comments (616) | Send Message
     
    well musk a lump of shares around the $100 mark so that will be a confidence boost to buy around there.
    5 Nov 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Water Brothers Financial Co...
    , contributor
    Comments (340) | Send Message
     
    Oh , it will. (65 that is).
    5 Nov 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • lord_ares
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Gross margin excluding ZEV credits is 22%, better than I had hoped. I thought it would be in high teens this quarter and then 22-25% by next quarter.

     

    Another Elon Musk target accomplished! :-)
    5 Nov 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (1834) | Send Message
     
    Down 10% in the AH.

     

    Down 18% from the high 1 month ago.

     

    Almost in a bear market. Where is the bottom?

     

    The stock could go under $60 and still be up 100% for 2013.
    5 Nov 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (1834) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry, now down 11% AH, or -19% from the highs.
    5 Nov 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (1834) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry, now down 12.5% in the AH, or -20% from the high.
    5 Nov 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    point?
    5 Nov 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (1834) | Send Message
     
    My point is that when hyper-momentum stocks begin to fall, they fall hard and fast.

     

    See Green Mountain Coffee Roasters or Netflix circa 2011.

     

    Not saying Tesla is not a buy at some level, but if it follows the path of the previous two companies that level will be a LOT lower than $156. Possibly $56.

     

    Tesla dipped into bear territory today in AH trading. Everyone but the recent buyers can still book significant profits if they sell now.
    5 Nov 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Walter P. Chrysler
    , contributor
    Comments (300) | Send Message
     
    see Netflix today. How's the integration with solar city going?
    5 Nov 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    indeed. here, here fine chap.
    6 Nov 2013, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    they had a good report, its like fb, fb dropped after earnings but is right back now
    6 Nov 2013, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3955) | Send Message
     
    @buyandhold???,

     

    Good report bad guidance
    6 Nov 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • amitch59032
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Extremely overvalued, sometimes it takes a few earnings reports to remind us.
    5 Nov 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Reel Ken
    , contributor
    Comments (3850) | Send Message
     
    It's all pretty simple, a story played out over and over. Just the name changes.

     

    Find a dream, find dreamers, run it up, burst it down.

     

    TSLA is a good story, but it needs a little more time to ripen into a good stock. It will come, but it may take a while.
    5 Nov 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fedman
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    don't jump in tomorrow expecting a big bump up. Margin calls will be the driver of the day.
    5 Nov 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • tomfrompv
    , contributor
    Comments (3095) | Send Message
     
    Is that margin based on GAAP or more non-GAAP trickery?
    5 Nov 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Resisted the temptation to pile in before earnings today. Actually got one correct. Buyer at 120.
    5 Nov 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • ilikemoney
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    New paradigm!
    6 Nov 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • sogoh
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    If one look at weekly chart of TSLA, it has been moving up on parabolic curve. This trend has now been broken, and for all parabolic curve charts, it always fail. By end of month,there should be a big correction on Dow,S&P and Nasdaq. That negative sentiment will bring TSLA back to when it orignally started, ie around $40.
    6 Nov 2013, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • buyandhold???
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    Tesla is cheap at $155, wait till it hits $300 next year
    6 Nov 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Agbug
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a Tesla follower, but what's the deal with reporting "gross margin". Isn't that like saying we made money, until we add in all of our other costs?
    6 Nov 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3955) | Send Message
     
    @agbug,
    Pretty much lol... since its a momo stock right now no one really cares... it'll matter one day just not today.
    6 Nov 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • gen3
    , contributor
    Comments (296) | Send Message
     
    Those other costs are the costs of building a new industry and public infrastructure you cannot judge the profit made on the cars. They now need to build battery factories and they are already building the biggest per capita supercharger network in the world in Germany.
    This is very useful as the forthcoming Mercedes EV has a TESLA drivetrain so their customers will be able to use the TESLA charger network for a return from Daimler.
    7 Nov 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|