Seeking Alpha

Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K

  • October Nonfarm Payrolls: +204K vs. consensus +120K, 163K previous (revised from 148K).
  • Unemployment rate 7.3% vs. 7.3% consensus, 7.2% previous.
Comments (85)
  • Ok so in our backwards world this is bad news for the markets, correct?
    8 Nov 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Government gets out of the way and jobs are being created....
    8 Nov 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Yep, We would still have millions of old jobs pushing liar loans and building tens of millions of flipper homes.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • How did Government get "out of the way?"
    8 Nov 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • How, you ask, Alfa?

     

    Well, in some peoples dreamworld the inanities of the shutdown and raised prospects of pushing the country into default constituted "getting the gov't out of the way." So, obviously, any good economic news for the next several months is a direct consequence of their brilliance in taking those bold steps. And if only those RINOs hadn't pulled their plug, we'd all be in Ayn Galt heaven with jobs for everyone and untold gigabucks lining the pockets of true believers.

     

    Do I have that about right, rreeu....?
    8 Nov 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • well about a third of it was closed for most of the month. Does that count?
    8 Nov 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • No not jobs for everyone, just for skilled individuals.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Lefty, with all the sequestering and temporary shutdowns, I would have thought the economy should have tanked bad by now; the numbers since the start of the sequester have been some of the best for what has so far been a mediocre recovery at best.
    I am happy that there seems to be some part of civilization remaining that is not dependent on the collective for either directions or its existence.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Just think how much better the economy would be if it were not for the sequester dragging it down.

     

    See. We can all play the hypothetical game. But neither of us can do the experiment, so we're just twisting the data to fit our prejudices, aren't we? In some circles they call it BS.

     

    But, every reputable economist will attest to the damage the sequester has done to the pace of recovery. I'm not talking about the trained dogs they drag out on Fox; I'm talking about reputable economists.
    8 Nov 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Lefty you mean like all of your brethren who said the economy would surely tank bad when we reduced Government spending from 43.6 of GDP in 1944 down to 14.8 in 1947 and further to 11.6 in 1948? Just in case you never learned about this, the next time we spent more actual dollars (even with inflation) than in 1945 we were entering the 60s. And of course all we did during that time was more than double the economy with an average federal outlay of (get this) 16.7% of GDP.
    But as you said never let facts get in the way of your bias.
    http://1.usa.gov/OohFth

     

    P.S. You seem to be a little under informed, I feel it necessary to remind you that there are Nobel Laureates in Economics other than Krugman. Maybe you should do a little more research before you throw the term reputable out.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • You seem to have forgotten it was exactly that massive increase in government deficit that led the States out of the Great Depression.

     

    Three Cheers for Keynesian!!!
    8 Nov 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • I think you really need to read up on OUR history and see what really happened...

     

    http://bit.ly/Hwp3Gg

     

    Maybe this article will enlighten a few !!
    8 Nov 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • AIP, There are reputable economists Austrian/Monetarists/ Keynesians who vary greatly and as to what caused the great depression, when we got out of it, and what policies improved/extended the depression.
    What is clear is the Keynesians noted the reduction in expenditures was sure to destroy the economy. That is irrefutable, as is how well the economy performed when Government got out of the way.
    8 Nov 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • You're missing the point. When the government got in the way, the US economy roared. From 1942 to 1942 the unemployment rate fell from over 10% to 1%. That was Keynesian stimulus. The government bought guns. But if they bought roads, the result would have been the same.

     

    The economy slowed after 1945. It did not perform as you claim. It is intellectually dishonest to claim that a slowing economy due to less government spending represented a faster growing economy.
    9 Nov 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • It does look as though QE is stabilizing the over all economy.
    I still think it takes 85 billion a month,what an irresponsible hole that was dug.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • The Fed's responsibility is to stimulate economic growth when aggregate excess capacity exists. They have successfully done so without any real cost. As an economist I challenge you to explain what is the "hole" to which you refer.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • The Meltdown which created the need for QE which has proven to be the best and only solution to a essentially real estate melt up in which the banks broke with the standard of 6 months pay stub and 6 months saving before a loan could be procured,During which time we where fighting the most expensive war we ever fought.
    Chairmen Bernanke has done his job well,agreed.thank you for your comment.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.
    Will Rogers
    Read more at http://bit.ly/1bdJ5zY
    8 Nov 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • And Will Rogers was certainly an expert on economics, wasn't he?

     

    How is it that people look to entertainers and wise-crack artists for science-based information and ignore the scientists (even the dismal ones)?
    8 Nov 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • AIP

     

    The FED stimulated economic growth ? You are joking of course..
    Show me the infrastructure promised to us. I believe you live outside the states so please do not believe everything you read.

     

    People who live here know the deal..
    8 Nov 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Left,

     

    You are right, we should stick to quoting the experts.

     

    "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession."
    -Ben Bernanke Jan. 10, 2008
    8 Nov 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • >"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession."

     

    They weren't forecasting a recession at the time. What's your point?

     

    Or do you expect the Fed economists to be infallible?
    8 Nov 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • >An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.
    Will Rogers

     

    Thanks.

     

    Can you fill us in on what Tom Cruise thinks about the sequester?
    8 Nov 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • The point is I am not an economist and my guess was still as good as his. Also Will Rogers >> Tom Cruise.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Good new is bad news for QE
    8 Nov 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • And here comes that taper-phobia back again.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Taper phobia reminds me oh so much of Y2K. The market will be shocked when it arrives and has absolutely no noticeable effect on the economy.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • But major effect on the stock market!
    8 Nov 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • TACK

     

    You may be right as the sequester so far may of actually helped. I know you have been saying this for a long time now..

     

    But hearing the POTUS say he is "sorry" that families are losing their healthcare, that he didn't know this would happen is sickening ..
    8 Nov 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • From the most recent Current -- "On the downside, the labor force participation rate whooshed down to 62.8% from 63.2%"

     

    Payrolls sizeable jump up, unemployment ticks up, participation rate plummets.

     

    Hmm, that's a strange mix of results? I look forward to reading explanations and thanks in advance for any insights posted on SA.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • They use two surveys to determine this data. This methodology leads to temporary furloughed workers being counted as "unemployed" but not as "job losses" towards to +204k number.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1bdfCGc
    8 Nov 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • You have long term unemployed who will not be able to get jobs since they will be increasingly viewed as a depreciated asset. The longer you are unemployed, the more your skills atrophy.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • That's the cause and Effect aspect of the irresponsible "Hole"
    8 Nov 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • You have to wonder when it will hit 50% - a few more years maybe?
    8 Nov 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • I'm also surprised and confused by this report.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • DARREN

     

    Seasonal jobs, maybe data will be adjusted downward next month, or just a blip ... I do not see this as a trend at all..
    8 Nov 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Hogwash. It is the trend. Two percent employment growth. Every year.
    9 Nov 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Guess you don't calculate those leaving the workforce? An Economist huh?

     

    You guys can make ANY figure make sense to you. It is amazing...
    9 Nov 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • I guess the shutdown created jobs....big demand for people acting like idiots since congress was out.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Regarded,
    Yes, who knows, demand for stand-in clowns must have peaked.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Hooray the economy is improving! Quick sell all of your investments!
    8 Nov 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • All 4 leading indicators inside the jobs number point to continued growth.....now on to the JOLTS survey...
    8 Nov 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Not great employment 77% of all low paying jobs: Retail up 44k
    932k dropped out of labor force. U6 13.8
    Leisure & hospitality up 53.0k
    Health Care up 17.5k
    Prof bus Svc up 44.0k
    Total 158.5k
    8 Nov 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, low paying jobs. This is the proverbial elephant in the room that is being ignored. Our economic recovery and ultimate stabilizing of our debt crisis is largely dependent upon well paying, career enhancing jobs. All these dubious claims of QE 'hole plugging' are admitted to be temporary actions to buy time for the economy to recover somehow on it's own. The irony is that QE is not demonstrating any healing indications - at best it is slowing the descent at the expense of long term economic health. Low paying jobs will neither improve the economy nor provide the tax revenues to repair all this QE irresponsibility.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • When you have millions of excess unemployed, you take what you can get.

     

    It's lot better than Japan's performance. No lost decade in America.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • I live in America not Japan.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Japan is the relevant example. All performance is relative.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • No, Japan is not relevant. They are extremely different for the USA.

     

    Relevant is such an easy term tossed around ... No need trying to wake some people up anymore.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Does anyone actually believe that number???
    8 Nov 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Economy is doing good enough it seems to give gold a hit once again.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • The market is pricing in that Janet Yellen will twerk sooner rather than later.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • The "official" jobless rate is a scam. People who quit looking for work are removed from the "jobless" rate. Ditto those working on jobs below their experience just to put food on the table . The "REAL" out of work rate is much higher.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • It is not a scam. There is no secrecy surrounding how the employment statistics are generated. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics generated a number of measures of unemployment, including ones that include discouraged workers, part time workers, etc.
    9 Nov 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Does jobs up, labor participation down, mean people working two jobs? Confused.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • At these moments it's good to have at one's disposal a site like Zerohedge to be able to grasp what all these mumbo jumbo stats mean:
    http://bit.ly/1hqcsEh
    Still, I don't consider October to be an average month due to the shutdown.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Ok, you got me, filipo. I clicked on it. Two points for you.

     

    Place makes yahoo's boards look sane. Makes me appreciate the quality of discourse at Seeking Alpha.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Left,
    Sometimes it's good to listen to as many sources as possible to get a general idea of what's really going on.
    For your well-being, here's another one:
    http://bit.ly/195fow8
    And in case you still had your doubts, consumer confidence is sure something you lefties must adore.
    http://bit.ly/195flQX
    8 Nov 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Zerohedge is run by a bunch of economic illiterates that engage in fear mongering and sensationalism. Their articles have repeatedly debunked.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • AIP:

     

    If they printed a newspaper, it would be called "Economics Enquirer" and reflect the same probity.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • American,
    Then you simply must abhor Shadowstats:
    http://bit.ly/nyzRiF
    What name have you in petto for Williams ?
    Be careful not to constantly wear the same rozy glasses. A bit of change never has done a person any harm.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • f:

     

    Zero & Shadow must have been twins, separated at birth. Just think, for a minute, of how many portfolios they have decimated with their intentionally-hysterical and wildly-inaccurate protestations. All the people, who followed such poor advice, simply missed huge gains, and ironically, still face all the same investment dilemmas of those who made them, just a lot poorer.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Exactly. How can anyone take a guy seriously who has a photo of himself bare chested on his blog. The whole thing is a joke.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • ShadowStats make Zero Hedge look highly professional.

     

    If the ShadowStat inflation statistics are right, then the purchasing power of the American income has declined to zero over the last decade and the average American lives in a tree.

     

    That shows just how absurd is ShadowStats. According to them inflation is 8%. Year after year. Do you really believe that?
    8 Nov 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    "All the people, who followed such poor advice, simply missed huge gains, and ironically, still face all the same investment dilemmas of those who made them, just a lot poorer."
    Well, Alan Greenspan didn't make us much richer either, did he ? By allowing the housing bubble to develop, and he was a Fed-chairman.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • American,
    The only bare-chested guy I recently came across with and who is highly bullish on American economy, and with a reason, is this one:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    I take him very seriously and he has made people very rich with his detailed articles on frac sand.
    As to John Williams, I couldn't find a picture of him bare-chested and neither of the author of Zerohedge. Where did you get the information from ?
    8 Nov 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • American,
    I didn't say I beleive that. I simply asked you whether you abhorred Shadowstats.
    I have the impression that your answer must be "yes". No further tirade needed.
    8 Nov 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • American,
    Here is some more stuff that questions the usefulness of QE:
    http://bit.ly/1besdZQ
    8 Nov 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Consumer confidence is extremely soft data. It is not useful for forecasting anything, except itself.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • I don't engage in tirades. I simply state the facts.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • American,
    " I simply state the facts."
    Fewer words would be as understandable but much more enjoyable.
    BTW, you didn't reply on this:
    http://bit.ly/1besdZQ
    Another lousy analist or equilibrated ?
    I simply like reading a lot of extreme opinions, that's all. They always tell a story good to know.
    9 Nov 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Wait a few weeks for these figures to be revised quietly...
    8 Nov 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Sort like they just revised August and September *up* by 15-45k jobs?
    8 Nov 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Aug, Sep, should be up, its when retailers start hiring for extra temp/part time help in their distribution centers and retail outlets, Dec 24th at 6pm. most are laid off, a few will be kept to handle the returns on Dec 26th.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • As likely up as down. The previous month was revised up.

     

    Cynicism is cheap.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Errr, mrdirt: "Seasonally adjusted" is actually a fairly straightforward concept. Shouldn't be too difficult to work out what it might mean in this context.

     

    Click on the report. Take a look at the table headers.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you, for pointing out my error. No matter if we agree or disagree on any economic stat, this is a good board to get other opinions and learn at the same time.
    8 Nov 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • When one drops out of the labor force..they must have other alternatives. Why are we so concerned with this number? Who cares if it keeps increasing? That just means that those still in the labor force are more productive, which means the economy is more productive, and companies are producing more with less. As an investor, this is a perfect scenario.
    Structural unemployment sucks for those caught in it, but over time, they will acclimate or else they drop out. The economy as a whole surges forward.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • E:

     

    For investors you highlight a vital point, so often overlooked. The economy and stock markets are not a government jobs program. Ironically, it's more efficient to pay people to do nothing off the payrolls than to have them employed at some corporate job doing busy work, but mucking up the gears.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • "When one drops out of the labor force..they must have other alternatives"

     

    Section 8 housing? SNAP cards? 104 week unemployment benefits? Obamaphones?

     

    Lots and lots of alternatives to working.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,
    For once, I agree with you, but you have to admit it's not the "official" attitude, it's not even considered as politically correct.
    BTW, no wonder the number of dropouts increases: our societies and technologies get more complex by the day and easy tasks are being taken over more and more by low wage countries.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Obamaphones don't taste that great.
    8 Nov 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • More jobs AND higher unemployment.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Again, the unemployment survey counted furloughed federal workers while the net jobs number did not count them as a negative.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • What questions does the survey ask? Why would any furloughed worker claim to be unemployed?
    8 Nov 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Furloughed workers are counted as employed because they got paid.
    8 Nov 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
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