Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors lower again in early action

  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) are lower in premarket action following the worst two-day drop in the company's trading history.
  • Most automobile industry analysts think the EV automaker will cruise past scrutiny over safety concerns with the Model S, although Kelley Blue Book analyst Karl Brauer notes multiple headlines with the words "Tesla" and "fire" could have a short-term impact on the brand.
  • TSLA -2.9% premarket to $135.80.
Comments (26)
  • I'm thinking recall. If you actually go and check the data, it is pretty fascinating. By end of year, there will be 100k Leafs and 60k Volts on the road with no fires. Zero. Zip. Nada. (Unless you count the ones during testing of the Volt that found a problem which was subsequently fixed). Tesla has sold under 20k cars and has had 3 in five weeks.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • A recall would cause probably the single biggest drop in the stock possible. With their ONLY product on the recall skids that would completely affect their next Q earnings. I would expect a recall to set price around 20-30/share. _vs_ 40-50/share.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • A recall would imply a defect or that the car does not somehow meet safety or regulations. And the commonality of running over large metal objects. In over 250,000 miles that I've driven, I've seen a ladder on a highway once, and it was easily avoided, just pay attention to the flow of traffic; if you see people moving over, slamming on brakes, it's best to get into other lanes.

     

    How often to people run over large metallic road debris. I do think our laws in the US need to be hardened and penalities stiffened for leaving large debris on the road though. This is beyond Tesla, you see a ladder or table saw in the middle of the highway, you'll try to avoid it, Tesla, Corvette, Corolla, Prius, etc, etc. Perhaps to the detriment to oncoming traffic or the person in the next lane.

     

    People do stupid things and stupid accidents all the time. Heck, i put a small leak in a gas tank going over a speed bump. I was going 10 mph over it. Should Pontiac have recalled the car? Nope, it was just a horribly designed speed bump, and if i went over it slower, no issues- bottomed out alot though.

     

    Just because a Volt or Leaf as not slammed into a brick wall does not mean it will not happen. Just because 2 telsa's hit road debris does not mean others will not and will not catch fire. It's wrong place, wrong time. Oh perhaps these drivers were simply not paying attention. Or perhaps there is a subset of Tesla drivers with less common sense than normal (e.i. You shouldn't have to be told not to run over large metal objects- you learn that very early on, with your first bicycle and first time you fall off after running over a large stone)
    8 Nov 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Only in dreamland will Tesla ever go back to $50, let alone $20. You'll be lucky to see $120.

     

    This overblown fire fiasco will die sooner than later. The NHTSA will probably not investigate this. If they were interested, then they would have declared so instead of saying they'll let local authorities recommend it.

     

    BTW, it is 3 fires in 6 weeks. Tesla vehicles have been on the road over about a year now. These 3 just happened in a short period of time. Saying 3 fires in 6 weeks is ignoring the other months with no incidents. Talk about nitpicking data.

     

    I have no idea why people keep counting the drunk reckless driver.

     

    And there has been numerous accidents involving Teslas that doesn't catch fire. You just don't hear about it.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • "Only in dreamland will Tesla ever go back to $50, let alone $20. You'll be lucky to see $120"

     

    Remember you said this. It's not moving down just because of a fire.

     

    But one has to consider if every time road debris hits the underside of this car a fire starts.......then it's a design flaw.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • They say things come in three, and let's hope that is the case here.

     

    It just occurred to me, thinking back to my test drive that you feel low to the ground. (I presently drive a 2000 Avalon). Does anyone know if the clearance under the car is lower than average, maybe for resistance sake, the Tesla is as low as can be to satisfy regulations?

     

    Thanks for an answer.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Clearance is controlled by Tesla's pneumatic suspension system, which does lower it (presumably below 6 inches) at freeway speeds, unless you tell it not to. It's not for safety. The low center of gravity is quite sufficient for that. It's for decreased wind resistance. The Tesla website doesn't say how low it will lower it, just that it does, and the specs just say 6 inches for the clearance instead of giving a range.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • If you believe these fires are accidental I know a Bridge in Brooklyn NY for sale. Don't you think these fires were one after the other when someone saw a way or excuse big enough for these guys to jump through. I think they knew the time was right to find a reason for people to turn the love they have for the car and company into hate because they would start loosing money in their investments, that's one way it will turn an investor who had some profits in tsla to run for the hills.
    That's exactly what they want, but in the end they will loose because Tesla has a superior product, a product that they can't compete with and they know it, that's what has them so scared, and why they call Tesla a game changer.
    Some are writing that this beautiful car with it's superior technology is disruptive and if you think of it the way they do, i.e. the lack of or need for fossil fuels in a Tesla....they are right.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • This is from Model S owner who got into the fire incident

     

    http://bit.ly/1fs7SBd
    10 Nov 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • This is a case of becoming disenchanted with a company. Everyone was so keen on the tech, the idea of truly green, the sum of perfection to a world completely sold on being green as a messianic hope. But once the reality sets in, much like 'stars without make up on' we can see it in its true light. The idea is excellent, the vehicle is awesome and the future may be bright; however at present valuation it is incorrect and everyone knows it now. So when it settles in, then it can get down to business and take the focus on trying to maintain a stock price that is unrealistic off the schedule. And work on what they do best, make a great promising vehicle.
    8 Nov 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Just a tiny bump on the road, the nature of a new design undergoing real life experience. This is a trivial defect if it is one at all. Nothing compared to the engineering problems space x encountered, and given their resilience they will fix it.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Pun intended? (TSLA) +343.15% - makes the down 17.19% for the month look small.
    8 Nov 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • means nothing until you convert it into real money. We all know this. But lets put your logic in perspective for a moment. If a company reported earnings and was down almost 18%, I wonder if you would so casually dismiss it.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Kind of Depends when You Bought. Doesn't it?
    8 Nov 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • No it doesn't. If you don't take profits on it, it's all paper profits. AND for every 1$ it loses you're losing 1$. It's quite simple. You invest to make money not to look and say "Well at least I haven't lost my inital investment." One invests to make money, and if you're not taking profits off the table, you're losing money. The next cliff for $TSLA will have everyone feeling the pain, then the teslatics will suddenly turn on their beloved. I've seen it happen again and again....bubble psychosis.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Yes I agree Tesla will fix it on there own , just like they fixed the back seat bracket on there own , they want to have the best car which they do and they will make it better stronger faster more reliable safer with the continued ability to get into the worst kind of accidents and walk away without a scratch.
    Vehicle Fires are nothing new they happen a lot, take a look at this chart and see for yourself from 1980 to 2011.
    http://bit.ly/GC6QG2
    8 Nov 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Its not a case of can it be fixed. Of course it can with good architecture and testing. But this costs money. Why do the bulls keep waving their hands in the air "Ignore the car on fire, there is nothing to see here." ANY car fire, be it petrol or EV, is worth noting. A recall of their only product on safety concerns, will cost them money.

     

    "...new design undergoing real life experience..." lets not test it on the consumer and at their expense. Regardless of how no one got hurt, a design flaw put peoples lives in danger. VERY REAL DANGER. Dismiss it if you like, but in the end it spells trouble. too much debris on America's highways.

     

    And as for the "this is not a spontaneous fire." compared to Boeing, well guess what, theirs wasn't either. A DESIGN FLAW caused it to overheat and had to be fixed. See where I am going with this. You cannot simply dismiss a car fire because "other vehicles (petrol based) have car fires" or "it wasn't a spontaneous fire."
    8 Nov 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • A drunk driver speeding excess of 100mph through 2 concrete barriers, 1 concrete wall and a tree to cause the fire. That does not count towards statistics to say that it is Tesla's design flaw lol.

     

    As far as data go, Tesla sold most of their vehicles in the US. Around 17k out of 19k. The Mexican fire does not count if you want to compare to US statistics. If it is 2 out of 17k, then it is still well below the national average of vehicle fires.

     

    If you want to say "well it's 3 fires in 6 weeks". Guess what? it's 3 fires in a whole year.

     

    Ignore the car fire, there is nothing to see here.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • You cannot discount a fire just because you want to. You also cannot put the model S in the national average. The national average is made up of petrol based vehicles. Put it in comparison to a any other EV. And there is something to see here, it's called fire. clutching at straws.

     

    1 fire in a year which endangers a owners life, is 1 too many.
    8 Nov 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • In that case over 150k fires a year for regular vehicles must blow your mind.
    8 Nov 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • How many reports of car accidents in Mexico do we read about here in the US - other than this report on the Tesla - none - so someone is watching Tesla with a very close eye so as to jump on any negative story, and I assume if something happens in the Netherlands or China we'll here about those also, almost before it is news where it happens - and so it goes with Tesla hunters - I drive my Model S every chance I get, ditto my wife - what the detractors have to say is meaningless, when in the real world you are fortunate enough to own one - the car performs flawlessly, I have never felt safer, and I can't wait for the arrival of Gen !!! so that others in my extended family can access them more affordably - in the meantime I will help them get ready by installing solar energy systems -
    8 Nov 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • 123man if I may paraphrase your statement:

     

    Mexico doesn't matter, and all the people who bash the Model S are those who sadly can't afford one, like me (I own two) but one day a lesser model will be available to the poor. And I will welcome my step brothers and sisters in with open arms.

     

    Well I have two vehicles for just me. A dodge truck and a corvette. I can afford a Model S. But I don't want one. Doesn't mean I hate it. But the main thing is my sentiments are not that the model S is a bad car. It is a great car, I can separate the car from the company. Having a fantastic product does not mean the company is worth ~20B dollars. Called being hype _vs_ realism. and hype worked so well in 1999/2000.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • This has nothing to do with the cars on fire . This is just fundamental charts . Use your Fibonacci retracement guys. It has gone up as high as the money makers would allow it . They went on tv "advising everyone to buy their "TNT bomb" and exited . Now they have taken a short position to ride it down . Might see 128 today, gives the shorts that bumped it to 181 on 11/5 a profit of $50. It should close @ around 135 though. It will probably trade sideways after that for a few days before going down to 115
    8 Nov 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Yes I agree a 50% retracement is what the stock needs to have a long over do healthy correction , I come up with 110 but you never really know this 132 could be the low for 2013 , have fun trying to figure out your buy back to cover price if your good enough to have been short.
    Oh and if you borrowed my shares to sell short give em back NOW.
    8 Nov 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • I just wonder what the role of distraction is, the fire is the consequence of a crash. The crash is happening for a reason, is distraction the reason here (mostly from the computer in the car)?. I was a little inattentive initially until my wife brought it up to me.
    Does the other electric vehicles has a big screen computer?
    8 Nov 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • The Model S has a 17" screen on the center console/dash and another screen on the dash.

     

    There is no other car with such extravagance.
    8 Nov 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
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