What will Fed doves make of declining participation rate?


Putative incoming Fed chief Janet Yellen - of the firm belief the headline unemployment rate is not telling the full tale of the weak U.S.employment situation, and the declining labor force participation rate is a cyclical, not secular phenomenon - may be less impressed than most with today's jobs headlines.

The labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% from 63.2% in September and 63.8% a year ago.

The broader U-6 unemployment rate grew to 13.8% from 13.6% in September, and now barely improved from a year ago when it stood at 13.9%. The headline unemployment rate of 7.3% is down from 7.9% a year ago.

Total of those not in the labor force of 91.5M compares to 88.2M a year ago. The employment-to-population ratio of 58.3% is down from 58.6% in September and 58.7% a year ago.

Treasury yields continue to move higher, the 10-year now up 14 bps to 2.74%. The December 2016 Eurodollar futures contract is off 13 bps to 97.95, pricing in about 200 bps of Fed tightening between now and then.

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Comments (3)
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9094) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for posting this info!
    8 Nov 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (11355) | Send Message
     
    These yields are coming right back down very soon.

     

    Deflation is the order of the day.
    8 Nov 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • awells1000
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Good observations. Using the raw increase in jobs will always be inadequate without considering participation and whether payrolls are increasing. Add to that the heavy inventory-laden growth data from yesterday which burned up all the growth fuel for a couple of quarters and we may see this sell off in treasuries turn back bullish sooner than later.
    8 Nov 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
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