Deal to curb Iran's nuclear program could send Brent crude plunging

Analysts say crude oil prices could plunge if an agreement on Iran's nuclear program is made this weekend, as appears increasingly possible after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Iran's foreign minister Friday.

ClearView Partners' Kevin Book predicts Brent crude oil futures could fall as much as $12/bbl if a deal is reached to remove sanctions, which have kept ~1M bbl/day of Iranian crude out of the world market.

While a deal looks promising, the politics remain tricky; giving Iran some relief on sanctions in return for a halt to its nuclear program isn't popular in Congress or with allies including Israel.


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Comments (4)
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9094) | Send Message
    Iran wouldn't be halting it's program. It's not popular with Congress or allies (Saudis included) because it's a Chamberlain type of deal.


    Iran would be "theoretically" halting only parts, without adequate ways to verify,... and even if they did voluntarily stop, with easy, quick ways to get back right to this point.
    9 Nov 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1601) | Send Message
    Good news all around! I know some of our allies would really like a war against iran and would like us to fight it for them. Well, tough. Peace and prosperity is in Amercia's interest and if we can get what we want (halt of the nuclear program) peacefully then we have to take this chance.
    9 Nov 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (9094) | Send Message


    You're warmongering by beating this tired old lie, instead of facing reality.


    Our allies don't want the US driving into a war with this deal that sets up a future war.


    Israel wants peace. Israel wants NO war with Iran, duh. Israel has fought the US's battles (in cold war). The US hasn't fought Israel's & has often done what Israel didn't need.


    Israel is a canary in the coal mine. Those in opposition call U.S. "big satan" and Israel "little satan." If Israel is ever taken down - it's a green light for everyone else to be aimed at. 9/11 wasn't at Israel, the easy target -- it was at the US. But that ignores the real worried folks in all of this, Saudis, Egypt, & every other Arab country. Asian countries with N. Korea watching it's options closely. And Europe, with Iran's nuke missile carriers able to reach them.
    9 Nov 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • okmnx
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    I don't think a deal involving the oil sanctions is likely. Congress is leaning toward tighter sanctions. Only if Kerry can get his buddies in the Senate to back him on lifting oil sanctions would this affect the price of Brent, which I agree would be a major downward pressure on price. However, since the Saudi and Israelis do not support a partial-deal at this time, the brokering of a "partial-deal" would elevate the tensions in the Middle East, thus putting the fear-factor back into the pricing of oil. Iran has to be all-in with eliminating its development in using centrifuges and allow real access for inspectors.


    I'm all for peace in the Middle East, but the current sanctions are working, why stop them for only a "partial 6 month time-frame" giving the Iranians more time to cheat? Once you let go of a little-bit of sanctions its really difficult to get approval to reinstate them.


    The uncertainty of all of these meetings should have a very volatile movement on prices. Not sure if the move in Brent was entirely related to currency swings.
    9 Nov 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
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