Seeking Alpha

Retail casts away doubts on equities

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Comments (15)
  • Got That Swing
    , contributor
    Comments (292) | Send Message
     
    Crash
    11 Nov 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • JD in NJ
    , contributor
    Comments (1429) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, this sounds like the final stage of a rally. The reluctant retail investor is finally drawn back in to the market when it reaches a new high and boom goes the dynamite.

     

    Well, so long as my dividends continue to roll in this will just mean more shares for my future.
    11 Nov 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • konihug
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Ouch, this is really worrisome. Now these poor guys will again enter too late and will be the first to take losses. And then another cycle starts...
    11 Nov 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Qniform
    , contributor
    Comments (3106) | Send Message
     
    So we all assume it's same as it ever was from this one story? Who is selling out today? I'm not. But I've been heavy in cash this year and underperformed somewhat.
    11 Nov 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • JD in NJ
    , contributor
    Comments (1429) | Send Message
     
    I didn't say I'm selling out. However, my portfolio performance this year has been excellent, and it would not be in the least surprising to see some kind of a downturn. Since I am not looking to sell any of my holdings for a profit any time soon, there is no negative for me in this particular scenario. I will continue to hold what I have now regardless of anything beyond company specific horrible news. I will continue to reinvest dividends. As things look cheap to me, I will continue to make what I consider to be prudent purchases.
    11 Nov 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (9626) | Send Message
     
    1999.

     

    2006.

     

    2013.
    11 Nov 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (2180) | Send Message
     
    This is January 2006 in the housing market - "Buy now or you'll be priced out forever!".

     

    "Inflows of $8.9B into long-only equity funds last week were the largest amount since March 2000."

     

    March 2000?!? The absolute top of the internet bubble??? Unbelievable that we're doing it again!
    11 Nov 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Qniform
    , contributor
    Comments (3106) | Send Message
     
    Surprised? Nothing surprises me, but there's plenty that I'd rather adjust for if I could.

     

    No one thinks they will ever be surprised, and no strategy is bulletproof (not even yours, my friend). You say that you don't need to sell now, but how about within 15-20 years? http://nyti.ms/1fwlsTX The original spreadsheets which show returns after dividend reinvestment and inflation are worth a look at the Crestmont Research website.

     

    Regardless of economic vagaries, we're all an instant away from needing liquidity for whatever unforeseen reason. Sorry to be such a downer.
    11 Nov 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • JD in NJ
    , contributor
    Comments (1429) | Send Message
     
    It's an interesting chart, no doubt. However, I'm not too sure that most of us put a lump sum into the S&P 500 in one fell swoop as our primary means of investing.

     

    Indeed, the slanted line of boxes showing 20 year returns is a bit misleading. One invests over, say a 30 or 40 year period, and divests (or better yet doesn't) over another 30 or 40 year period. Just looking at simple 20 year returns does not really capture the full dynamic, not by a long shot.
    11 Nov 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Qniform
    , contributor
    Comments (3106) | Send Message
     
    Take it for what it's worth. I do know that if someone retired in 1962 and began withdrawals, their assumptions would have had to change.

     

    They always do, in my experience. I ended up with 4x the funding I thought we'd need, but I suppose it could easily have been an inverse result. I like to think I'm good, but I was lucky as well.
    11 Nov 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • GrizzlyT
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Since subscribing to Seeking Alpha, I at least feel like I'm a few steps ahead of the general public. When the outlook gets gloomy for real, I'll be poised to re-allocate assets appropriately.
    11 Nov 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • HopeItsUp
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Hi, GrizzlyT, when you see the outlook getting gloomy for real, let me know. I want to get out before the next market dip and save my current capital gains.
    I also appreciate Seeking Alpha for reliable info. However, not everyone is saying the same thing. One person says sell now, another says stocks are still selling for less than value.
    I currently own about 50 solid stocks, all still look like good choices to me, but I would sell them in a heartbeat if I thought they were about to drop in value/share. I'm only a decade away from retiring.
    Are you following anyone in particular? What (or who) do you consider the most reliable source of info? What indicators are you relying on?
    I appreciate opinions from the SA readers! Please post!
    11 Nov 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • GrizzlyT
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Always keep some "dry powder" on hand to take advantage of the fear factor in the market. The next round of debt ceiling bickering in Washington and Fed tapering fear should (among other things) create some buying opportunities. I'm a behavioral economics guy who doesn't get pulled into irrational behavior. For example, I took my nest egg out of the market in Jan 2008 (a tad late) because of the behavioral side of the housing/financial markets. Returned in 2009 and have been investing since then.
    11 Nov 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • financeminister
    , contributor
    Comments (939) | Send Message
     
    Who knows when this will blow up... for DGI longs already in the market, time to build up a large cash position and be prepared to deploy in stages when there's a 10% to 20% drop and gradual move downwards.
    11 Nov 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • HPBunker
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Stocks only go up. Yesterday I sold my new car, that I need to get to work each day, for a 70% loss and invested all the money in a levered small cap fund today. I have no doubt that I'll triple my investment before I run out of "sick" days, thus allowing me to buy a newer, better car with cash left over, and all while keeping my day job!
    11 Nov 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
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