Seeking Alpha

Alon, Alon Partners buck refiner weakness on Credit Suisse upgrade

  • Alon USA Energy (ALJ +8.2%) and Alon Partners (ALDW +4.1%) are surging, despite weakness today in the broader refining sector, as Credit Suisse upgrades shares.
  • ALJ could be worth up to $15/share, including the $2.25/share expected contribution from the Bakersfield start-up - delivery of this project is key; at current levels, the stock still provides ~20% upside in the scenario where Bakersfield does not proceed or ~40% if it does.
  • On ALDW, for investors willing to overlook the possibility of no distribution payout in Q4 2013 and Q1 2014, the firm says the rolling 12-month potential forward yield starting in Q2 2014 is 15% and rises to ~20% by Q4.
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