Millennial Media's guidance disappoints, shares -15.7% AH


Though Millennial Media's (MM) Q3 revenue nominally beat a consensus of $67.8M, not all estimates take into account the company's recent merger with fellow mobile ad network Jumptap, which had Q3 revenue of $30.2M (up from $14.6M a year ago). Millennial proper had revenue of $56.1M, easily below consensus.

Millennial expects revenue in seasonally strong Q4 to grow to $95M-$100M from a Q3 level of $86.3M. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between breakeven and $2M; that suggests EPS will be below a $0.06 consensus.

With eMarketer having forecast global mobile ad sales will rise 89% in 2013, Millennial proper almost certainly lost share in Q3 (Google's AdMob unit is a likely culprit).

Millennial proper reached 500M+ monthly unique users in Q3, up from 450M+ in Q2. The number of apps on its network grew to 49K+ from 45K+.

Q3 results, PR

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Comments (5)
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (9687) | Send Message
     
    the culprit is FB not GOOG.... by the way the analyst numbers don't include Jumptap since the deal just closed last week. The forecast was always that the deal would cause a hit to Q4 numbers but be accretive in 2014.
    13 Nov 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • JMay2
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Why do so many "investors" hate this stock? Listening to the CC, they appeared fairly confident going forth. Your thoughts?
    13 Nov 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Sellinpanic
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    Because the management thinks only for themselves, insider selling is actually the only reason that MM exists. It was IPO'd in order to get the owners filthy rich in a few years time and ever since they have been selling their holdings. If you dig deeper into MM you'll notice a familiar pattern; management hypes the stock before lock up expiration, then immediately sells as much as they are allowed and so on. This pattern happened a year ago and this summer especially before Jumptap acquisition, which in effect was the ultimate dilutive decision MM could have done.

     

    They are loosing market share rapidly in an otherwise piping hot sector and profitability is non-existent. The only thing recommandable that is left with MM is to short the stock, but even that will take a while before one can really profit due to the overall strength of the market sector (not MM). The route I see MM going is the path Velti has gone, but remember the management has cashed out long before this will happen.

     

    Best thing is to forget MM and move on, I have, after loosing enough money with this toxic asset.
    14 Nov 2013, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Sellinpanic
    , contributor
    Comments (894) | Send Message
     
    @Stone Fox Capital,

     

    You can dream on the promises MM does, your proof is in the stock price and continuous inside selling. Also with these so-called acquisitions MM dilutes shareholder value by increasing their stock count, best advice? Stay far away from this company.
    14 Nov 2013, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • joeg1969
    , contributor
    Comments (440) | Send Message
     
    This just maybe the next velti sure hope not for the longs
    13 Nov 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
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