"Everyone is worried that they are not worried about anything because no one else is worried about anything," writes Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker of the stock market. "We are Bob Marley."
Wrongly bearish for 2012 and early this year, Parker changed his tune in March, but the market has run well past his end-of-year forecast. He's not ready to ring a bell; instead Parker's waiting for evidence of excessive corporate spending and risk-taking as signaling a top. Right now though, companies remain in cost-cutting mode and have been prudent about mergers.
“We conclude that we can’t be at the top of the cycle until risk to earnings grows, and that won’t happen until hubristic behavior accelerates and debt is on the doorstep of having to be refinanced, ostensibly at higher rates or in a less available market."