Seeking Alpha

Pessimism on Brazil's Rousseff soars to record

  • Fifty-one percent say they are pessimistic about the president's policies, up from 22% when she took office in January 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey. Only 10% say the country can avoid a credit rating downgrade in the next year. Compared to other major global markets, Brazil - says the survey - is expected to offer one of the worst opportunities over the next year.
  • Moody's last month followed S&P in lowering it credit outlook on Brazil to stable from positive, citing the 59% debt-to-GDP ratio compared to 45% median for other countries with the same rating.
  • The central bank has boosted the benchmark Selic rate by 225 basis points since April to 9.5%, and shows no sign of stopping this month.
  • That's a lot of bad news and bad sentiment. In the meantime, the stock market has fallen and can't get up. EWZ is off 15% YTD and about 40% from 3 years ago (and down 0.4% premarket). Opportunity?
  • Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BZF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZU, FBZ, BRZS, DBBR
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