Seeking Alpha

Iran, world powers reach deal but "key oil" sanctions to stay

  • Iran and the P5+1 world powers have struck a six-month interim agreement in which the Persian nation will limit its nuclear program in exchange for an easing of international sanctions that will provide the country with $6-7B of foreign exchange.
  • However, "the key oil, banking, and financial sanctions architecture, remains in place," the White House said in a fact sheet.
  • "The EU crude oil ban will remain in effect and Iran will be held to approximately 1M bpd in sales, resulting in continuing lost sales worth an additional $4B per month," the sheet said.
  • Iran will eliminate uranium enriched to 20%, halt the installation of advanced centrifuges, refrain from commissioning its Arak heavy water reactor - from which plutonium can be made - and remove its stockpile of the fissile material, which is thought to be almost enough to make one nuclear bomb.
  • The sides now plan to spend the next six months working on a permanent deal.
  • The P5+1 and Iran have expressed satisfaction with the deal, but Israeli ministers have already rushed to the airwaves to denounce it.
  • President Obama's statement.
  • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, UGA, DBO, BNO, DTO, CRUD, USL, DBE, UHN, RJN, DNO, SZO, OILZ, UWTI, OLO, UOIL, DWTI, JJE, RGRE, ONG, DOIL, OLEM, TWTI, FOL, UBN
Comments (30)
  • If Iran would get rid of the theocracy that place would be an incredible tourist destination... I wonder if this new development will motivate investors.
    24 Nov 2013, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • I might look to see if I can find some worthwhile Calls on Oil related companies or ETF now that Neville Chamberlains work is complete.
    24 Nov 2013, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • Are you dreaming? Nothing over there worth seeing,but trouble.
    24 Nov 2013, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • Iran's greatest weapon would to "Behave themselves" So she could start selling oil again.
    24 Nov 2013, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • Appeasement of the enemy and betrayal of allies is what all empires and cultures do in their decline.
    Iran will, of course, have nuclear weapons forcing the Saudis to develop their own nuclear capability(no doubt Pakistan, for money and Russia for influence and bribes) will oblige. The US and Europe will be further marginalized.
    24 Nov 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • As Israel and France aptly said this is a "Sucker's Deal"....Add Iran to the nations (Syria & Russia) to the list of countries that have "punked" this administration of Jimmy Carter II.
    24 Nov 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Better than GWB punking his own nation for imginary WMDs, or where are they Bret? Why did thousands of Americans die for nothing in Iraq?
    24 Nov 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Well Bret seems like an independent, critically thinking, non-ideologically driven contributor here. (FYI that is sarcasm, in case you're the type that thinks Stephan Colbert is a republican).

     

    Thanks for your comment. I treat all articles on seekingalpha with the idea that they could be wrong, but I will definitely add an extra dose of healthy skepticism to your contributions here Bret.
    24 Nov 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Russia & China have a deal,they still haven't gotten over Truman,
    i believe analyst understand this,
    24 Nov 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Fed's back is to the wall & their not the only one's.
    24 Nov 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Iran played the classical He who fights to run live to fight another day. That was wise of them. In the end Iran could develop Nuke down the line only bcos Israel has one. But none of them is willing to ever use Nuke against anyone. In fact only one country on planet earth ever used it. Even Russia refrained from using theirs against Germany even on the brick of annihilation. Nuke is a "terrorist" weapon. Any weakling could use Nuke as first strike advantage ..it should be wiped out of the face of the earth.
    On Iran those guys have really capable scientists and like any other technology that keeps improving and eventually commoditized ..so will be Nuke going forward. Iran is buying 20~30 years here to heal own economy and integrate more with the world in a more robust way to achieve whatever they wish. The race ahead is about education which unfortunately the west is not winning here.
    I also expect and hope that Iran would declare to recognise the State of Israel and denounce the stupid "loose talk" of wiping Israel out of the earth. I wont be surprised to see this in years to come.
    24 Nov 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Russia did not have nuclear weapons until WW II was over. This treaty is a fig leaf for the Obama Administration which has no intention of risking a wider war to eliminate Iranian nukes. Israel will have to go it alone. Only the naive and Holocaust deniers believe the mullahs are rational.
    24 Nov 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • In practice who is rational? USA is the only country on earcth to use such weapon on people. Why condemn a whole people of Iran or Arabs in general because of whatever you think. The modern wold calls for open mind and live and let live arrangement. Wars and aggression to impose own will historically achieve temporal successes not failure long term. Look at Japan, Italy, Greece, Britain and so on.
    Israel has not signed non-proliferation treaty. Why is that ? As a staunch supporter of Israel that does not make sense to me. For how long shall we keep living in fear? Jews are vibrant and highly resourceful people and my take is peace with all will ultimately keep with them the power to defend themselves and improve.
    Iran could easily make Nuke down the road if it so desires. They have the brains to do it..that is much more important. But I dont believe they are hell bent on that at least at this time. My feeling is that Iranians want to mingle and learn much more from the world and be prepared when the balance of power changes. Evidently Iran should and is the only viable and capable nation in the mid east. At least they have elections unlike in Saudi Arabia where women are forbidden to drive yet they are our best of friends. Saudis dont work ..rather they rely on experts/immigrants and same in most of the house of Saud.
    24 Nov 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • I admire your optimism, but do not share it. When the U.S. nuked Japan it was widely believed that it would save one million lives in an invasion. Keeping an open mind about one's adversaries is sound if it is balanced with vigilance. Without getting into issues of moral equivalence, I would point out that foreign policy and, by extension, war, is based upon a nation's vital interests. The U.S. might not have a vital interest in Iranian nukes, but the Israelis and Saudis do. Remember what happened when the Russians supplied the Cubans with missiles capable of hitting U.S. targets. The Israelis will not stand by in the face of an existential threat.
    24 Nov 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Everything is "justifiable and fair" in war per the so-called claim of saving millions while using weapon of mass destruction in Japan. So that one is not relevant here.
    I support your argument about continued vigilance even within same family..that is human nature. But to also live one must also keep open an open mind and take solace that man is not God.

     

    On existential threat to Israel ..it makes no sense to me. No one in this modern life would contemplate such a thing on any nation state. It never happened in the last 200 years! I bet that 90% of Iranians will not support ( in reality) the loose and stupid political jibe of wiping Israel out of planet earth. I like it same to Ronald Reagan reference to Evil Empire or G. W. Bush of axis of evil. These are jibes and common. Same as yelling at an opponent " I will kill you.."
    Indeed those that should fear existential threat should be the Iranians or even the Arabs because Israel is the only Nuke power in the region and secret at that.
    On Cuban crisis ..that was then but today there are quite many known missiles capable of hitting USA mainland ..not even talking of plenty unknowns. Must realize that nations have iron-cast secrets as families do. Yes USA reached a deal with the Soviets then even though no one will ever know what USA conceded as a tradeoff.
    My position is that constructive engagement is a very powerful tool for everlasting peace in this world. Reagan applied it so much that USSR collapsed without any gun shots. I am of the opinion that Arabs are civilized people ( with vocal extreme minority) just as in any nation state. But human beings generally tolerate and quest for live and lets live..without which there will be no geographical nation of varied tribes/races. I always try to put my opponent shoes to see how it pains and therefore to be rational in my judgements
    24 Nov 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • @leopardtrader

     

    -- " I bet that 90% of Iranians will not support ( in reality) the loose and stupid political jibe of wiping Israel out of planet earth."

     

    It's about 70% who wouldn't but they aren't running the dictatorship!! Nor did they support their govt importing Hezbollah militants to better beat Iranians during vote protests, because fellow guards weren't harsh enough. No one (in responsible positions) is vilifying Iranians. It's Iranian rulers who just called Israelis "non-humans. As bad as "evil empire" was, this goes further. It dehumanizes all individuals of a group directly.

     

    -- "On existential threat to Israel ..it makes no sense to me. "

     

    Right. I'd bet Nazism makes no sense to you either.

     

    -- " It never happened in the last 200 years!"

     

    But it did happen to Israel's majority population in the last 100 years. Currently Bahia in Iran are being wiped out. Iran has built up munitions & authorized and paid for attacks on Israel by proxities who's goal is "wipe out Israel," for years now. Via Hamas & Hezbollah.

     

    -- "My position is that constructive engagement is a very powerful tool for everlasting peace in this world. "

     

    True. Who's disagreeing?

     

    -- "human beings generally tolerate and quest for live and lets live"

     

    Sometimes. But Jews have been on the other end of that stick many, many times. Yet, Israel has a current good relationship with Germany. When it's possible, it's possible. The Iranian leaders have many times voiced the idea that there's a war on, and it's only solution is ridding the Middle East of it's "Western takeover" through Israel, and that martyrdom is good.

     

    These same leaders sent children to clear mine fields, with keys to heaven around their necks to let them in. Not everyone's view of how to value life matches your own. Hence suicide bombers.

     

    Iranians by and large are progressive. Iranian government is very different than that. So when you get into their shoes, include their stated -beliefs-, not just their claimed grievances. It does complicate the picture.
    25 Nov 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mussadiq.
    24 Nov 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • George Bush made the 1st mistake ; by destroying Iraq they allowed Iran to become the strongest power in the Middle East!
    This is the 2nd mistake! A total capitulation to Iran by a
    weakened President and a dunce of a Secretary of State who
    Is taking orders from Susan Rice! I think the Botox Kerry is
    Using has leached into his brain and clouded his vision!
    I hope the Jewish American Congressmen will speak out against this deal!, and pressure the U.S. And Democratic Party to
    Block this agreement! Mike Rubin
    24 Nov 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • That 40 day war with south Lebanon is indicative of a creeping problem,America needs to strengthen it's position.
    Get that 6.5% a reality,reduce that $85b a month,get productivity and exports up.
    24 Nov 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • LOL, I hope you killers like paying an extra $1 gallon for gasoline just because Israel insists on destroying Iran the way it destroyed Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria (work in progress).

     

    24 Nov 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • @ Bob

     

    Millions and millions of people in all those countries, and problems from long ago... and you claim some 7 million Israelis who are attacked regularly are the cause of the ills in all those places. BTW, Jews weren't "the cause of all of Europe's troubles" either, last century.
    24 Nov 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • The key will be inspection -if it is thorough and unimpeded, this could be a big step forward. It also gives momentum to a relatively moderate new Iranian government which is desirable. It is too early to reach conclusions but this could be an important step in limiting nuclear proliferation which is one of the major risks to our species.
    24 Nov 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • @Phillip

     

    Any hope this "new government" is moderate, was quashed in the middle of negotations... when their supreme leader, aka the ONE who directs everything.... slipped into "death to America" and "Israel is a rapid dog and Israelis are non-humans." A lovely tribute to Hitler's views of Jews as subhuman.

     

    I'm all for a diplomatic solution, but this isn't a deal with a new moderate government. It's the same old government. So let's hope those inspections really are thorough and unimpeded.

     

    Not just for Americans, not just for Israelis & Saudis, but for the many Iranians who aren't as nuts as this essentially dictatorship government, & deserve better.
    24 Nov 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • That 40 day war was supplied by Russia through Iraq through Syria into South Lebanon.Israeli intelligence knows what they saw their.
    I suspect some exotic systems where used,the hardened shells were a masterpiece,anti tank and naval seemed quite effective,the duration and depth of the missile salvo's was quite a surprise.I believe Iran would only use nuclear capability as strategic parity.
    24 Nov 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • I said "relatively moderate" and I do think that there is some basis to think that the new guy is somewhat more reasonable than the last guy (who seemed like a raving maniac) but I am not about to give him a medal for multicultural tolerance. I do think that Khatami was a true moderate and that we missed what may have been a decent opportunity to deal with him but that is an old story.
    25 Nov 2013, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • @Philip

     

    We definitely made big mistakes and missed opportunities in the past.

     

    I'd argue "moderate" isn't a term to use on this guy. It tends to cloud that he's "extreme", though definitely less raving maniac. Actually I think he's more dangerous, because he hides it better.

     

    His writings and speeches back home, do not support the smiling image he's given to the west (literally, he was saying one thing back home, while saying another during the UN gathering.)
    25 Nov 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • The only reason Iran is so storng is GWB and his quest for "WMDs" in Iraq. He instead delivered a weakened Iraq to the Iranis. Smooth move!
    24 Nov 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Uncle Joe sure would be proud.He started the whole darn thing.
    24 Nov 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Oh you haters need to turn that frown upside down... oil is not going anywhere and markets are up up up! Quit whining about "oh-baaama" and make some money. Sheesh.
    25 Nov 2013, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • United States has no choice but to question and defend her interest.
    Mistakes have been made and we have all paid the price for them
    but that does not diminish the responsibility incumbent upon us as a
    Democratic nation,All people are important.
    25 Nov 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)