Seeking Alpha

Wells Fargo starts Twitter at Market Perform, says "transformative opportunity" is already priced in

  • Wells Fargo initiates coverage on Twitter (TWTR) with a Market Perform rating and valuation range of $36-39, saying the opportunity of the transformative platform is priced in.
  • "While we view Twitter as a transformative social platform with abundant opportunity to expand its audience scale, consumer value proposition, and advertising utility, we believe current valuation reflects our near- to medium-term optimism," analyst Peter Stabler said.
  • "We established FY2013E and FY2014E revenue of $645M and $1,107M and adjusted Ebitda of $64M and $148M, with non-GAAP EPS of -$0.20 and -$0.01, respectively. Though our valuation range embeds a significant premium to mean multiples of our Internet coverage, we believe a premium is warranted due to rapid growth, differentiated mass media partnerships, mobile content consumption trends, and an industry shift toward deep data targeting and programmatic execution."
  • TWTR closed at $41.00 Friday, with a 52 week range of $39.40-$50.09.
Comments (2)
  • mosesw
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    TWTR is still to high it not making money at this may next year fair price 16 t0 18.00 more respectively.
    25 Nov 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (472) | Send Message
     
    EBITDA = "Our earnings suck but not after we do THIS?"

     

    The same people who designed "core CPI" for no inflation unless you eat, use medical services, go to sfchool, drive, or use heating and air conditioning. It's so bad now, Santa puts coal in the stockings of the GOOD kids.

     

    Transformative? You mean having a platform of user-generated content which welcomes open discussion and then CENSORS anyone who runs afoul of liberal, feminist groupthink?

     

    Think of a bar where all the men get kicked out, and all the women expect to have men buy their drinks. What's the bar's future?

     

    Do you really think it's a good idea to censor people to whom you are trying to sell stuff, and to cut off opniions just because some feminists start crying? If you want to play Captain-Save-A-Chick, and not worry about earnings, go ahead, but keep this in mind:

     

    From 1994-1996, two dating-advice message boards dominated the world: Prodigy and AOL. Both of them banned "pickup artists" from sharing secrets, because it "offended women," who seem to deserve a "presumption of virtue." Of course, the TRUTH suffered, because the feminist view of dating took over the boards. Guess what? The *smarter* men allo migrated to USENET, formed a little thing called the "PUA seduction community" (we were the alphas others were seeking), and becuase our stuff WORKED with women, and we were making money self-publishing, the media came in and finally told the public we were okay to follow, but not until THE GAME had been published. Ever hear of that book? Direct product of censorship.

     

    The internet is ripe for a free-speech social-network to swipe the entire audience from the big names. When it does, stocks like TWIT will drop like a rock, probably into the $15-20 range, if not closer to say $7-10, which is probably all it's really worth. Think "MySpace."

     

    Just remembr who is selling all the shares people are telling you to buy, and the price those people got in for. Now factor in the major run on the price when those insiders' shares are unlocked over the next few years.

     

    Finally, do people really like being SPAMMED when "socializing?" The internet is countercultural, like CBGB's to Studio 54, with no velvet ropes or VIPs. The second they try to turn CBGB into Studio 54 is when the cool kids migrate to another site, and not one owned by a middle-aged blonde trying to appear hip to people half her age with no money.

     

    Tons of headwinds at $50 on this baby.
    26 Nov 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
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