What to watch for from November U.S. Auto Sales


Automobile sales are forecast to have grown nicely in November from October's shutdown-influenced pace, according to the latest rash of industry predictions.

Estimates for November range from a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of 15.7M (Edmunds.com) to 16.1M (JD Power) - up from October's 15.154M SAAR.

What to watch: Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Chrysler (FIATY) are expected to have picked up market share during the month while Honda (HMC), Hyundai (HYMLF), and Volkswagen (VLKAY) are tapped to retreat a bit. The calendar kicks in an extra selling day which automakers won't highlight greatly. Inventory numbers and average transaction prices will be closely watched. If the former decreases and the latter improves, automobile stocks could rally.

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Comments (7)
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (8685) | Send Message
     
    If November sales come in at 1.2M, and Ford's market share increases from about 15.3% last year, that should work out to something close to or just under 200k vehicles for Ford. Last November was 177,673 units, so it could be about a 12% rise. Those extra 22k cars and trucks should add about another $80M in profits. That works out to another 2 cents per share on the 37-cent consensus estimate.
    26 Nov 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    And how much do the results from great sales in Asia add in? If Ford has a 12% increase in sales during the 4th quarter you think that we are only looking at 39 cents?
    1 Dec 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tdot
    , contributor
    Comments (8685) | Send Message
     
    We can certainly have high hopes, but profits in Asia on those small cars are still barely a blip on the radar screen, perhaps nearly offsetting the losses in Europe with the help of South America, as it was in the 3rd quarter. US profits still represent pretty much 100% or more of the total global profits for Ford.

     

    The hope is that eventually Europe and Asia will each contribute about a fourth each to the global profit pie, with North America covering the other half. Maybe that will happen in a few years. Be nice to see Ford coming in with more than $3 per share, and a resulting share price in the $30s.
    1 Dec 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    The last I read GM will have the largest % of increased sales.We will see Nov. third if projections are correct.
    29 Nov 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • cbroncos
    , contributor
    Comments (2913) | Send Message
     
    I think you meant to say Dec 3rd? Auto sales should be released on Dec. 2.
    1 Dec 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • johnlewis319
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    Buy F, should run to $18 by month's end.
    2 Dec 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • lemm
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    You are right cbroncos.I guess I am a month behind, getting old I guess.lol
    2 Dec 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
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