Seeking Alpha

Another bear gives up

  • "I am out of justification to fight the uptrend," says Tom McClellan, becoming the latest bear to throw in the towel. “Up until now, I have had what I thought was compelling evidence to believe in the bearish case, but it has now been revealed to have been insufficient for the task.”
  • In other news, RBC's Jonathan Golub checks the data and finds big years for the S&P 500 are likely to be followed by ... big years. Since 1947, he says, the S&P 500's top-10 performing years have averaged a 31% gain, and have been followed by average returns of 14% in the 12 months after.
  • More McClellan: "I see this as a bubble, but a bubble that is continuing higher even though it should not ... I plan to ride the bubble for a while ... and will hope to be able to succeed in reading the right signs."
  • S&P 500 ETFs: SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, RSP, RWL, EPS, BXUB, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB
  • One bear likely to never throw in the towel is John Hussman. His latest - an open letter to the Fed - is here.
Comments (8)
  • kimboslice
    , contributor
    Comments (1488) | Send Message
     
    Bears who hibernate too long starve.
    26 Nov 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Budavar
    , contributor
    Comments (1387) | Send Message
     
    We don't know exactly WHEN will the music stop = when according to the rules of the game I participated in as a child, the least nimble falls to the ground.
    Another apt comparison is with the EXTRA-ORDINARY DELUSIONS + MADNESS OF THE CROWDS experienced in Europe over 300 years ago.
    My third item refers to Disraeli. the Victorian PM who famously said about lies:
    THERE ARE THREE KIND OF LIES = LIES, DAMNED LIES + THEN THERE ARE STATISTICS.
    And then there are also phony documents (lies).
    I sit in wonder over the current financial + political scene + over the childish faith of most of its participants in the ever-prolifrating lies.
    26 Nov 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (1013) | Send Message
     
    Market action reminds me of late 1999. We know how that ended.
    26 Nov 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • wapiti
    , contributor
    Comments (711) | Send Message
     
    Greater Fool theory snags another bear......
    26 Nov 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • wapiti
    , contributor
    Comments (711) | Send Message
     
    Better to be wrong with the Sheeple than right by yourself
    26 Nov 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • jimdice
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I don't think it's fair to compare him to Hussman, who still wasn't satisfied with valuations in 2009, 10, 11, or 12 and has missed a good portion of the best five year rally in decades. Rather, Tom was more open minded as to the potential for higher targets in the markets, but asked investors to still exercise some caution due to underlying vulnerabilities in the markets (ie. Washington). Thank you for sharing this note.
    26 Nov 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • ETF ProTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    Still my favorite YouTube video.. Robert Precther on October 27, 2010:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bSS6eA
    26 Nov 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Cameron Swinehart
    , contributor
    Comments (304) | Send Message
     
    When you make a living investing money in the markets and are subject to maintaining returns for clients you have to be in the market one way or the other. So its not surprising that some "market" bears have switched. They are losing money, losing credibility, and losing clients. This is a natural shift from a bull market to a bear market (sellers become buyers) and this actually makes a case for continuing to be bearish.

     

    Those bears with the luxury to wait it out will be the winners. And the people hopping in now might see another 5-10% (who really knows) and are risking getting caught when it crumbles.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
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