Seeking Alpha

Cyber Monday preview: Winners and losers from the e-commerce binge

  • E-commerce sales this holiday season will rise 14% to 17% this year to top the marks of the last three years, forecasts Jefferies. Cyber Monday sales are tapped to see +20% Y/Y sales growth.
  • The ongoing channel shift away from brick-and-mortar becomes even more pronounced when auto, restaurants, and gas are backed out of retail sales tallies. Apparel sellers are forecast to be the hardest hit, although on-trend names such as Under Armour (UA), Macy's (M), Gap (GPS), and Lululemon (LULU) should outperform.
  • The strong Cyber Monday rush could hurt foot-traffic reliant chains such as TJX Companies (TJX), J.C. Penney (JCP), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Ultra Salon (ULTA), and DSW (DSW) - according to some trends dug up by Placed.com.
  • The positive read on e-commerce sales bodes well for Amazon (AMZN), Retailmenot (SALE), eBay (EBAY), Overstock. com (OSTK), and Blue Nile (NILE) - although high expectations are already likely factored into share price.
  • Related ETFs: XLY, VCR, IYC, SCC, FXD, UCC, RCD, FDIS, PSCD, PEZ.
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Comments (3)
  • marloo
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Somebody did a survey asking if people expected to spend more this year and the answer was yes, so politically they look forward to increased sales....But really..... We all expect that prices will be higher than last year. So the truth may actually be that we expect to spend more... but not that we have more to spend. We will maybe buy less.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Neth Wiedemann
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget retail ETF XRT
    26 Nov 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • tom g
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    How can we leave out Visa and MasterCard...........come on Cyber Monday...............c... push cash thru the computer????
    26 Nov 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
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