Seeking Alpha

Apple nears Oct. high amid reports of improving supplies, order pickups

  • Apple (AAPL +1.8%) has made new November highs, and is closing on its October peak of $539 (made right after the FQ4 report). Shares are still nearly unchanged YTD in a year that has seen the Nasdaq rise over 30%.
  • Gene Munster is once more reporting of improving iPhone 5S supplies (previous): Shipping times have improved to 3-5 days from 2-3 weeks, and checks at 60 U.S. Apple Stores indicated 90% of SKUs were in stock.
  • Separately, Digitimes' Taiwanese component supplier sources report iPhone 5C chip orders are expected to rise again in calendar Q1, following Q4 declines. If true, that's a positive for Apple-dependent chipmakers such as Cirrus Logic (CRUS +1.6%), Avago (AVGO +1.2%), and TriQuint (TQNT +2.8%).
  • Digitimes and others have reported of major 5C production cuts, as sales of the plastic-shelled iPhone soundly trail those of the flagship 5S.
Comments (33)
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    Fasten your seatbelts folks!
    26 Nov 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (392) | Send Message
     
    Let's say Apple ties the Nasdaq on Dec 31. That puts the valuation at 705. Right back where it was. Pretty cool
    26 Nov 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (392) | Send Message
     
    Let's say Apple ties the Nasdaq on Dec 31. That puts the valuation at 705. Right back where it was. Pretty cool
    26 Nov 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • iOS7 needs to revolutinize
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Shorts gotta be dying right now.
    26 Nov 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (343) | Send Message
     
    All those gloomy shorts are soooo quiet.
    26 Nov 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    yeah, i remember plenty of people shouting that $400 was way too high, a very short time ago. Even had $250 as a target from one joker, who is very quiet these days. Successful investing comes with a lot of white noise that you have to block out. Happy AAPL xmas to all :)
    26 Nov 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • hawk007
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Don't you mean CHRISTMAS?
    26 Nov 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (392) | Send Message
     
    I think jamesingram32 meant iMas!
    26 Nov 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    I meant all of the above. :)
    26 Nov 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • AnInterestedInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Its going to be a good ride now until April a least
    26 Nov 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1100) | Send Message
     
    Eh. I don't think it's safe to lay down any sort of short term predictions myself. Gotten way too burned over the last year on short term thinking.

     

    "It's going to be a good ride to 2015." is my new mantra.
    26 Nov 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Sacto_Joe
    , contributor
    Comments (255) | Send Message
     
    "Shares are still nearly unchanged YTD in a year that has seen the Nasdaq rise over 30%." Meanwhile, Apple is gobbling up its own shares at these incredibly depressed prices....
    26 Nov 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    The speculation had some of this move happening because of the buyback occurring. I speculate that wouldn't Apple want to buyback as many shares as possible ahead of a CM deal being announced in a few weeks? Is there such thing as insider buybacks?
    26 Nov 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Arthur Fisher
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Two points: first, as shares have been moved up steadily today, not much stock on the sell side; give this two more days of scarce sellers, and the stock should jump again, as the buyers must not be feeling very satisfied with the stock that they are getting, and then momentum buyers, on the sidelines lately, will join in. Second, 5c production should now be ramping faster than 5c sales, followed by slashed prices and blowout volume in the Jan-Mar quarter, ideally as a boot in the wumpus for Mr. Samsung in more of a medium price range. The yield, beyond a flood of gross margin dollars, will be exposure to the ecosystem for a whole new class of customers, folks whose incomes and aspirations will be rising significantly in the coming years.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • SP5524
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Dear SA Editor,

     

    From now on, at the end of all the silly reports that relate to production order rumors and/or supply chain content, please remind all with the following quote. This quote that many of us smart investors already know.

     

    "The supply chain is very complex, and we obviously have multiple sources for things. Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant for our business," -Timothy Cook
    26 Nov 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Dear SP5524,

     

    Supply chain reports have proven an accurate source of intel about iPhone and iPad production/order trends, and they doubtlessly will do so in the future. While not always accurate, they've been accurate enough in the past to provide much value to investors.

     

    While Cook's quote gets a lot of ink, it ironically coincided with the release of an earnings report in which Apple provided guidance that confirmed several supply chain reports about iPhone production and component order cuts.
    26 Nov 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1100) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to see some rear-view analysis on how effective it has been and which sources have proved accurate. What I've seen in terms of supply side rumors has been such a mixed bag of contradictory garbage that it's worthless.
    26 Nov 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • bfmil
    , contributor
    Comments (221) | Send Message
     
    The Apple bears go into hibernation on rising stock prices just like the gold bears hibernate. I wonder if they sleep in the same cave ? Kinda makes one wonder who the true driving force is behind SA.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rjmontealegre
    , contributor
    Comments (133) | Send Message
     
    And China Telecom is coming Dec 28, fasten your seatbelts
    26 Nov 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha Hungry
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    It's China Mobile. And Dec 18. Close enough though.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Keep It Simple
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    It's China Mobile. And I'm hearing the 18th under a new to-be-named subsidiary.
    26 Nov 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • JamesAlpine
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Is this confirmed? If so where? I'm hoping it is, and quickly!!
    26 Nov 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    anyone have a link for the $CHL Dec 18th announcement? I have not heard of this as yet. Also, the chinese government licence for AAPL and CHL runs out in Jan, does it not? I assume it will be extended...
    26 Nov 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Rjmontealegre
    , contributor
    Comments (133) | Send Message
     
    You're right on both changes, hope I am right on the message
    28 Nov 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1100) | Send Message
     
    This China Mobile thing has been "coming soon" every quarter for 2 years now. I know there is a lot of rumors and such pointing to it, but I'll believe it when I see it.

     

    Hopefully that announcement will really kick-start things properly.
    28 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • David RG
    , contributor
    Comments (1045) | Send Message
     
    China Mobile
    26 Nov 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • hockerz
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/17Se2se
    26 Nov 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    thanks
    27 Nov 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • VTH
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Is the China Mobile news already priced in? Can we buy some March Calls? How much would be upside for ~50M more iphone sales as its said in the above link?
    26 Nov 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • nickysg
    , contributor
    Comments (493) | Send Message
     
    The story that 5C production is due to rise in first quarter 2014 might well be connected to the possible China Mobile deal.That model is likely to be a big player in the Chinese market,and the first quarter there is strong because of purchases for Chinese New Year.
    26 Nov 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking forward to a few years out when we can read the actual story of why this has taken so long! both companies are hurting from this and stand to benefit greatly, and yet....it has taken years!
    27 Nov 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • kentgolden
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    From 'Official' Chinese news outlet:

     

    Commercial 4G to start December 18
    English.news.cn 2013-11-25 09:17:24
    By Zhu Shenshen

     

    BEIJING, Nov. 25 (Xinhuanet) -- China will start commercial 4G mobile communications services on December 18, bringing the most advanced telecommunications technology to the country’s more than 1 billion mobile users.

     

    China Mobile, the country’s No. 1 mobile operator with over 700 million users, will start 4G services on that date with a new brand He, meaning harmonious in the Chinese language.

     

    China is expected to issue licences for 4G before the telco’s new services start.

     

    “It will be a national event and users are allowed to apply for 4G services without changing numbers,” said a Shanghai Mobile official.

     

    Users in Beijing, Guangzhou and Chongqing will be the first to enjoy commercial 4G, or fourth generation, services. Shanghai, which is still building a citywide 4G network, will launch the services later.

     

    Though China is the world’s biggest mobile phone market with more than 1 billion users on its mainland, it lacks the 4G technology that is used in some other countries and regions including the United States, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

     

    The 4G phone will become rapidly popular on China’s mainland, thanks to the low cost of 4G phones, according to Li Yue, China Mobile’s president, who expects some 4G phones priced below 1,000 yuan (US$162) to appear in the second half of next year.

     

    Apple Inc is also set to introduce iPhones supporting the 4G network in China, industry insiders said. The US giant and China Mobile are in negotiations over the 4G iPhone and they will launch it officially on December 18.

     

    China Telecom and China Unicom are now Apple’s carrier partners for its smartphone on the Chinese mainland.
    27 Nov 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • haschultz
    , contributor
    Comments (610) | Send Message
     
    I am more focused on the Apple Suppliers of TQNT and even HIMX than APPL.

     

    I think more of the quick and simple money has been made in APPL but I think TQNT and HIMX have more upside potential for the retail investor.
    30 Nov 2013, 05:08 AM Reply Like
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