- American Express (AXP +0.4%), Discover (DFS +0.3%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.2%), and Wells Fargo (WFC -0.1%) are best positioned to be allowed large capital returns (about 70%) after the Fed's early 2014 stress tests, says Credit Suisse's Moshe Orenbuch, while Ciitgroup (C +0.2%) and PNC Financial (PNC +0.9%) are likely to show the biggest improvement from last year.
- Overall, his team expects large cap bank capital returns to be 65% next year vs. about 48% in 2013. The median dividend payout ratio is expected at 22%, level with this year.
- Orenbuch notes the CCAR will be tougher this time around - notably by assuming a global, not just domestic meltdown, and assuming a significant reversal in the property market - with commercial real estate exposure particularly harshly judged.
- Balanced against that and likely winning, however, are far stronger capital positions of the banks, says Orenbuch.
- Financial and banking ETFs: FAS, XLF, FAZ, UYG, KRE, KBE, VFH, IYF, IPF, SEF, IAI, IAT, IYG, FXO, PFI, IXG, KBWB, RKH, QABA, KCE, FINU, RWW, KRU, RYF, KBWR, AXFN, PSCF, KRS, FNCL, FINZ, KBWX, KBWC
at Zacks.com (Nov 17, 2014)