Seeking Alpha

UBS cuts precious metals forecast

  • The "struggle for gold not only rests with the predominant selling interest among investors currently, but with limited positive catalysts looking forward, gold is unlikely to regain its former appeal," writes UBS, slashing its precious metals forecasts for 2014 - gold to $1,200 from $1,325 and silver to $21 from $24.
  • With the downward momentum building, gold could test $1,050 an ounce - a level that might approach a "decent buying level," writes the team, but the path would be "very turbulent."
  • Gold is flat in morning action at $1,223 after yesterday's plunge, while silver has given up a bit more ground, -0.5% to $19.93.
  • PM ETFs: GLD, SLV, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, SIVR, PPLT, PALL, ZSL, USLV, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DBS, DGL, DSLV, GLTR, DGZ, PTM, AGOL, DBP, GLDI, DGLD, WITE, SLVO, PGM, TBAR, USV, JJP, UBG, RGRP, LPLT, BLNG, IPLT
Comments (23)
  • The fact is the fed is in on the price manipulation so as to falsely prop up the dollar and allow continued printing while holding back inflation. This strategy or policy cannot be continued indefinitely. Those who do not learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them. It is not possible to print your way to prosperity. Simple economic history.
    3 Dec 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • They have more money than you have time.
    3 Dec 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Both of you are right. However, PM is not copper and cannot have much more downside. Will you be calling the bottom? When it turns it will turn quickly. All it takes is one 2007 like financial news event or a nuclear arms race in the middle east. What will you be buying then? Will you be running to the safety of the USD?
    3 Dec 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Gold is clearly on a downward trend, heightened by Bitcoin hitting 1000 and QE going on indefinitely, but guess what? Both events cannot last forever. Eventually someone will collect the debt, like China selling tbills and buying up gold.
    3 Dec 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • I think gold is all done for the next ten years, what goes around comes around. Silver gets any cheaper only rare coins will be a good to hold.
    3 Dec 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • But that's not what I saw in a video on Youtube?!
    3 Dec 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Are you able to post the link for others, including myself, to view ?
    3 Dec 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • ^^^ LOL!
    3 Dec 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • I think China will own 90% in the next year or two...and then it will be over for the fiat...as they will introduce something new....and gold will be a big pat of it....the Western world is still printing as fast as they can....trillions....
    3 Dec 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • That's exactly my point. I believe at some point soon, China will go back to the gold standard, and possibly call in the US debt. They would become the worlds number one economic power overnight. They're even telling their citizens to accumulate gold.
    3 Dec 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Gold outlook video and about China's appetite on gold

     

    http://bit.ly/1k8xTWu
    3 Dec 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • It is most interesting to note that in the latter part of November a major US financial institution bought options for 72,500 ounces of gold with the option price of $3,000 and the date December 2015 !!

     

    Of course the lower the price reduces the better as far as institutions are concerned. I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions.
    3 Dec 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Also interesting to note, according to the latest 13F filing for Soros, he purchased one million shares of GDX.
    3 Dec 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • where's the link?
    3 Dec 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Im curious about producers cutting production if the price drops low enough. If they stop producing, where else do they get income from ?
    3 Dec 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • They either close down mines or survive on cash reserves until the price of gold rises and mining becomes profitable again. What's happening now is creating a deliberate shortage , it's just a matter of time before the intrinsic value of gold wins out over worthless paper currency and ETFs.
    3 Dec 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Unless they're hedged in production price and they keep producing, they don't have any income.
    3 Dec 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • They increase their capital, as Barricks recently did.
    3 Dec 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • If I get a chance, will take a load of silver to the dump.
    3 Dec 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • This gets interesting: in October 2013 the Chinese Yuan became the second largest reference currency, behind the USD, but before the euro:
    http://bit.ly/1g3TvpR
    3 Dec 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Or rather:
    http://reut.rs/1g3Vjzc
    3 Dec 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Gold turning out to be what it really is - a yellow metal with little use or value, but for adornment. Definitely not an investment.
    4 Dec 2013, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • Remember the saying - "timing is everything". We are one event away from a home run or a strike out. Be ready to swing.
    5 Dec 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)