Seeking Alpha

IDC lowers 2013 PC forecast, now sees 10.1% shipment drop

  • After forecasting in August global PC shipments would fall 9.7% Y/Y in 2013, IDC now estimates they'll drop 10.1% to 314.2M. Consumer shipments are expected to drop 15%, and commercial shipments (tend to have higher ASPs) 5%.
  • Interestingly, emerging markets (shipments -11% to 182.1M) are expected to see a slightly larger drop than "mature markets" (-8% to 132M). There have been signs of stabilizing demand in the U.S. and certain other developed markets.
  • IDC's forecast cut comes even though the firm thinks shipment declines moderated to a 7.6% Y/Y clip in Q3, after dropping 11.4% in Q2. In addition, H-P (HPQ +0.8%) just reported a mere 2% Y/Y PC sales drop for its Oct. quarter, and Intel (INTC -1%) stated the PC market is "beginning to show signs of stabilization," albeit while providing disappointing 2014 guidance.
  • IDC expects shipments to drop another 3.8% in 2014 before "turning slightly positive in the longer term." It foresees 2017 shipments (naturally hard to predict) of 305.1M - barely above 2008 levels.
  • For reference, IDC has predicted smartphone shipments will rise 39% this year to 1.01B (over 3x PC shipments), and tablet shipments will rise 58% to 227M (72% of PC shipments).
  • Affected companies: MSFT, STX, WDC, MU, AMD, NVDA, LNVGY
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Comments (5)
  • Mace Meier
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Is it just my imagination, or have these guys, IDC, been WAY wrong all year?
    3 Dec 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Copious28
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Yep. I prefer to get my information from the source (INTC, HP, etc). Intel knows what its been selling.
    3 Dec 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Morgan Myrmo
    , contributor
    Comments (969) | Send Message
     
    Why does SA assume we know what IDC is? C'mon guys!
    3 Dec 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Chiipy-Nostradamus
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Slow death !
    4 Dec 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • awakeinwa
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    whether one trusts IDC or not, it doesn't take rocket science to see that Windows 8 hasn't compelled consumers to replace or buy new PCs. That's the elephantine bottom line
    4 Dec 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
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