IDC lowers 2013 PC forecast, now sees 10.1% shipment drop

|By:, SA News Editor

After forecasting in August global PC shipments would fall 9.7% Y/Y in 2013, IDC now estimates they'll drop 10.1% to 314.2M. Consumer shipments are expected to drop 15%, and commercial shipments (tend to have higher ASPs) 5%.

Interestingly, emerging markets (shipments -11% to 182.1M) are expected to see a slightly larger drop than "mature markets" (-8% to 132M). There have been signs of stabilizing demand in the U.S. and certain other developed markets.

IDC's forecast cut comes even though the firm thinks shipment declines moderated to a 7.6% Y/Y clip in Q3, after dropping 11.4% in Q2. In addition, H-P (HPQ +0.8%) just reported a mere 2% Y/Y PC sales drop for its Oct. quarter, and Intel (INTC -1%) stated the PC market is "beginning to show signs of stabilization," albeit while providing disappointing 2014 guidance.

IDC expects shipments to drop another 3.8% in 2014 before "turning slightly positive in the longer term." It foresees 2017 shipments (naturally hard to predict) of 305.1M - barely above 2008 levels.

For reference, IDC has predicted smartphone shipments will rise 39% this year to 1.01B (over 3x PC shipments), and tablet shipments will rise 58% to 227M (72% of PC shipments).

Affected companies: MSFT, STX, WDC, MU, AMD, NVDA, LNVGY