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10-year Treasury yield nears 2.9% after data

  • Initial jobless claims fell 23K to 298K last week, but the Labor Dept. says it's difficult to adjust claims for the holidays.
  • The big revision higher in Q3 GDP growth - to 3.6% from 3.1% - comes as private inventory growth's contribution is revised to 1.68% from 0.83% previously estimated, and from 0.41% in Q2. Real final sales (GDP less change in private inventories) grew 1.9% in Q3 vs. 2.1% in Q2.
  • Real personal consumption expenditures +1.4% vs. 1.8% in Q2. Real nonresidential fixed investment +3.5% vs. 4.7%. Real federal government expenditures of -1.4% vs. -1.6%. Price index +1.8% vs. 0.2% in Q2.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 3 bps to 2.87%. TLT -0.3%, TBT +0.7%.
  • Stock index futures remain near flat.
  • Tomorrow is the November nonfarm payroll report.
  • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, TLH, ZROZ, SBND, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, BIL, SHV, UBT, TBX, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, GSY, LBND, DTYL, SCHR, TYD, SCHO, ITE, TENZ, TYBS, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, SST, DTUS, TBZ, DFVL, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
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Comments (8)
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (4445) | Send Message
     
    TMF ->38% YTD.
    5 Dec 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Damian McGlynn
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    No tapering before Dec 2015 no matter what.
    5 Dec 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9911) | Send Message
     
    3 month libor priced at 2.1% out in December 2016....
    5 Dec 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9911) | Send Message
     
    Cycle has another 4 years to run...
    5 Dec 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Pardini
    , contributor
    Comments (423) | Send Message
     
    Tightening likely to happen based on history of Fed politics.
    http://bit.ly/18obf7m
    5 Dec 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • omarbradley
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    interesting comment. the entire "upside" in the GDP print appears to be based on an "inflation adjustment" actually. Hardly good news if true (for the record i am not an economist but sure know a few good ones)...not that an inventory build isn't welcome...although that can be seen as a precursur to a recession as well. again...no Syria, no ACA...so far more muff than muffin.
    5 Dec 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1327) | Send Message
     
    if you own stocks like NLY get hedged.

     

    should be a nice reward for NLY longs from both ends.

     

    if the jobs numbers are better than expected, market can drop a bit on open due to tapering chances becoming much greater.
    6 Dec 2013, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1327) | Send Message
     
    goldman in the short term may be right about mreits. doubting the market can stay up on friday until there's more clarity from fed that they won't taper.
    6 Dec 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
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