Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors roundup: Shares range-bound, supercharger network, Oxen vs. Musk

  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.7%) stay close to the $140 level as sentiment stays positive on the company, but not enough to break through the tight range of the last week.
  • The EV automaker's map of Supercharger networks has grown to 39 in the U.S. to link more major cities. By most accounts, progress on the Superchargers is on pace with the company's projections.
  • On the bear front, Oxen Group maintains its stance that Tesla is at most a $100 stock. The investment firm says even if Tesla hits Porsche-like margins and grows sales to 90K per yer by 2017 that the current valuation is too high as demand hits a ceiling. The outlook runs counter to Elon Musk's comments that Tesla is supply-constrained and not demand-constrained, although he hasn't been clear at what production level the equation flips.
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Comments (25)
  • Jharmstrong
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Still shorting TSLA.....LOL....all the way down to $110 TSLA fanboysz
    9 Dec 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tri Duong
    , contributor
    Comments (1536) | Send Message
     
    the Oxen article does not account for Gen3. It based its projections on roughly 3 quarters of data to predict over 3 years in the future. It is the definition of wild assumptions. If you read the article, Oxen tries to predict long term growth using technicals. Any business school would tell you that's crazy.
    9 Dec 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • PeterJA
    , contributor
    Comments (4273) | Send Message
     
    Oxen Group just commented after their article that SA readers are not their clients. Therefore trust their SA articles at your peril.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Dec 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • speedofov
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
     
    This week is the 12 month anniversary of taking delivery of a Model S. During my test drive some months earlier, I said: "I don't know how other companies can compete with this". Now, 17,234 miles later I say: "I don't know how other companies can compete with this".
    The stock will go up and down, but, ultimately, the owner experience will determine the success or failure of Tesla or any other company. If I am any example, the future looks very bright.
    9 Dec 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • nwdiver
    , contributor
    Comments (414) | Send Message
     
    Agreed... My 1 year is next month; 28000 miles (not that it's a competition :) Only issues were early production bugs that were quickly fixed... the pano roof squeak and infamous "Tesla crack" in the wind shield. Everything is doing great. Going 28000 miles without an oil change does feel weird. One year, 4 road trips, zero gas/diesel. NM-WA x2, NM-CA, NM-KS. Car consumed ~9000kWh... my solar PV generated ~26000kWh :>
    9 Dec 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • awakeinwa
    , contributor
    Comments (390) | Send Message
     
    i daresay that sounds like intrinsic value.
    9 Dec 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • 123man
    , contributor
    Comments (1289) | Send Message
     
    Another "fan" commenting here - 12,000 miles in just six months - we drive the S over everything else we own - only small issues requiring minor tweaks gladly done by Tesla at the onset, nothing since then - we own stock and have not sold much (convinced to sell 10% by broker at $92, stock then went to $190+, ouch) - if it drops to the $110 range will buy more - shorts don't get my money because I'm in it for the long haul - car has consumed about 4500kWh as of now - our solar PV generates about 29,000kWh - I love filling up at night - have it down to about 30 seconds -
    9 Dec 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Let's hear the whole story.
    How many are paying a grand per month?

     

    For the Tesla, not ObamaCare. :)
    9 Dec 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Vico Confino Tesla 85 owner since 12.21.2012

     

    I can only comment that the average citizens who question me at shopping malls, restaurants etc, want to know what kind of auto I am driving and reply that they have never heard of the Tesla all electric automobile.
    My assumption can only be that once Tesla advertising hits TV and the main media, that sales will skyrocket beyond naysayers numbers crunching comprehension.
    Frankly, I don't personally give a damn.
    Like a true American I already have mine and loving it to death.
    I don't even bother to check the stock I purchased at twenty.
    Doubt if I will be around when my grandchildren stop calling me "crazy uncle Vico" and begin calling me "Uncle Vico the genius".
    Merrily I roll along in my Tesla Dream Machine.
    A happy holiday and healthy New Years to one and all.
    Vico Confino
    Noble Prize Winner
    Life begins at 80.
    9 Dec 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • chfp
    , contributor
    Comments (624) | Send Message
     
    "Vico Confino
    Noble Prize Winner"

     

    Out of curiosity, I looked for you on the list but don't see mention:
    http://bit.ly/18x4EHJ

     

    I'm guessing it's a running joke since the claim is trivial to confirm or deny.
    9 Dec 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Vico ... again ... the best of comments today! And happy holiday and happy New Year to you too! The Tesla electric is not going anywhere but up, as you say, when advertising hits the airwaves ... maybe a great gift for this time of year too ... what could make a person feel better?
    9 Dec 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Vico Confino to chfp

     

    GOTCHA!
    Next time, check the dictionary for the spelling of NOBEL (noble)
    Have a blessed holiday and healthy new year.
    Vico
    9 Dec 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Hi Cassina,
    Remember my commenting that my wife did not like her Tesla because of all the computer options.
    Sold it to a fellow in California and made $13,000. He paid $1,400 to have it shipped to him from my home in Florida.
    Sold a small slice of my Tesla stock to pay for my Tesla. 0+0 = 0
    Isn't this a great country?
    Vico
    9 Dec 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1690) | Send Message
     
    Why would your grandchildren call you "Uncle" Vico?

     

    :-)
    9 Dec 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (705) | Send Message
     
    That's right Vico,
    I have been writing here is SA for sometime now and asking or hoping that Tesla will start advertising on TV much like other auto makers, but I read that Elon believes the best advertising is word of mouth, so until he gets the idea that they need to start advertising like other auto makers, I fear we won't see it.
    On the other hand he may be right, and we will just have to wait until he starts making Gen 3 cars, as you know they will be for the mass public, with a low price, and I think then he will need to advertise to sell volume.
    I also believe he is setting infrastructure with Superchargers everywhere so he can advertise free charging for all Tesla autos.
    9 Dec 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Your grand children would rather have the $1000/month.
    Ask them.
    9 Dec 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (3319) | Send Message
     
    Elon is right about supply contraints. Oxen is wrong about demand constraints.

     

    Unless the price of gasoline goes to $1.25/gallon and the other automakers produce vehicles that get 40 mpg city, then electricity is cheaper to use.

     

    That is nowhere to found anywhere. Why you may ask? Because it is self evident.

     

    Bears do not want to admit that Tesla is here to stay and the fire issue will die out as do all other fires. Therefore, there is no issue.

     

    And the Oxen group ( do those guys still use oxens?) imply that the gas station infrastructure was built by the automakers. So it will take decades for the supercharger network that Tesla is building to be completed, according to their thinking.

     

    There are some people in this world you do not listen to. They are bolviating or spinning ( as Mr. Bill would say).
    9 Dec 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • IncomeYield
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    The car isn't free. Add the $100k sticker shock to the equation. And the 2nd car for longer trips. Someone publish an accurate TCO.
    9 Dec 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mo Money 2011
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    We love Vico!
    9 Dec 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Vico Confino
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Vico reply,
    Thanks Mo Money. I needed that.
    Getting blasted from all sides by numbers crunchers, naysayers, wannabees, never was or could be.
    Forgiveness is the most satisfying revenge and I do forgive them all.
    We don't stop laughing because we get old.
    We get old because we stop laughing.
    Stay well,
    Vico
    80 year old man, trapped in a 40 year old body, with the libido of a 20 year old.
    Nil Desperandum
    9 Dec 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Forward Looking Guru
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    The Oxen Groups's thesis assumes Tesla will only sell 90,000 vehicles in 2017. There is no basis for this figure, that is the lowest sales forecast I have seen from anyone.

     

    My sales forecast, that I published earlier this year, unlike this arbitrary 90,000 figure, is based on facts.
    http://bit.ly/11Rs8WH
    9 Dec 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • omarbradley
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    next up a "giga factory." needless to say "only the Japanese and Koreans do this. Any American who tried would surely fail." who knows...one day maybe even Dell or somebody will come out with a solar powered lap top. until then i'll keep tapping away on the $200 special and wonder why i ever spent that much.
    9 Dec 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • endump
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    tsla long to 200
    9 Dec 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • ConservativeOutperformer
    , contributor
    Comments (639) | Send Message
     
    My TSLA analysis shows 6.384242m cars by 2020 at 90% margins. After that, TSLA and SpaceX will merge to form Hyperloop Inc. and showcase the first flying automospacepod. This company will pioneer Earth/Mars space travel and I'm expecting growth to top 4000% by 2025. At this point every other car company on the planet will be bankrupt, SeekingAlpha will trip every quantum computing, nanotechnology, 3dprinting circuit breaker in existence due to the number of TSLA likes and Chuck Norris will turn into a liberal, endorse Elon Musk as the greatest human of all time and thank him for ending global warming.

     

    This forecast has to be right because I've thought about it for 30 seconds, I walked into a Tesla store once and I played back the scene from Iron Man 2 when Tony Stark meets Elon Musk.

     

    Good luck!
    9 Dec 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6255) | Send Message
     
    I went all in based on this forecast....jk ;)
    12 Dec 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
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