Booming U.S. production and the prospect of easing supply disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa has Deutsche Bank cutting its 2014 estimate for WTI crude by a whopping $10 per barrel to $88.75. At the moment, WTI is at $98.50, up 1.2% on today's session.
"We see the growing risk of an oil supply glut developing," says Michael Lewis, the bank's head of commodity research.
Any dip in price may be temporary though, as Deutsche expects OPEC to cut production to defend prices - a move likely to be successful, says the bank, due to its upbeat outlook for world growth.
Deutsche is also dour about the refiners, noting the current capacity glut is growing thanks to rapid and sizable expansions in Asia and the MIddle East. The industry would need to shut about 2M barrels/day of refining capacity (2% of the market) to balance the market, says the bank.