BAML sees shift to industrial names


"Warehouses over townhouses" is one of BAML's ten themes for 2014 - highlighting a potential shift away from consumer-driven stocks to industrial and commercial names.

"If revenue growth continues to accelerate as we expect, corporations are likely to invest in their businesses by spending some of the cash accumulated on their balance sheets. This capex cycle, combined with improving global economic growth, is likely to benefit stocks in more industrial and cyclical parts of the economy over those that are more dependent on the consumer. In our view, this has already started, but probably is in its early stages."

An attached chart shows this outperformance beginning to creep in in Q3.

If the thesis is correct, investors may want to be sellers of Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Health Care (XLV), and Financials (XLF), and buyers of Tech (XLK), Energy (XLE), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB).

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