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Big stock gains this year bode well for next ... or not

  • 2014 could be a good year for stocks if history going back to 1927 holds, says LPL's Jeffrey Kleintop, who finds double-digit average positive returns in the years following 25-30% gains for the S&P 500. In fact, he says, most big years were followed by several years of strong advances.
  • Mark Hulbert - focusing on the DJIA and going back to the late 1890s - finds the advantage following 20% plus gains disappears. "The stock market’s odds in a given year are almost completely independent of what it did in the previous year."
  • S&P 500 and DJIA ETFs: SPY, SH, DIA, SSO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, VOO, DOG, RSP, DXD, RWL, EPS, UDOW, SDOW, DDM, BXUB, TRND, SFLA, BXUC, BXDB
Comments (2)
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (721) | Send Message
     
    So the market can go up, down, or nowhere next year - reminds me of every other year...
    11 Dec 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • cdjagds
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    I may not be wise to waste the space and the time of Seeking Alpha on reporting forecasts .
    I liked the blog from Robert P. Seawright yesterday: So, as year-end approaches, let’s take a look at how much “this much” is — how badly various Wall Street market forecasts missed it with their prognostications for the S&P 500 in 2013. The chart below tracks their “achievements,” noting by how much they missed (using firm forecasts from the beginning of 2013).

     

    Firm / S&P 500 Target / Missed it by this much (%, as of 12.10.2013)

     

    Wells Fargo / 1,390 / 29.7%
    UBS / 1,425 / 26.5%
    Morgan Stanley / 1,434 / 25.7%
    Deutsche Bank / 1,500 / 20.2%
    Barclays / 1,525 / 18.2%
    Credit Suisse / 1,550 / 16.3%
    HSBC / 1,560 / 15.6%
    Jefferies / 1,565 / 15.2%
    Goldman Sachs / 1,575 / 14.5%
    BMO Capital / 1,575 / 14.5%
    JP Morgan / 1,580 / 14.1%
    Oppenheimer / 1,585 / 13.8%
    BofA Merrill Lynch / 1,600 / 12.7%
    Citi / 1,615 / 11.6%
    AVERAGE / 1,534 / 17.5%
    MEDIAN / 1,560 / 15.6%

     

    In other words, they all missed by miles (short of a major market correction over the next 14 trading days). Nobody was remotely close.
    11 Dec 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
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