Seeking Alpha

Netflix outperforms following Citi PT hike

  • Citi's Mark May, who started coverage on Netflix (NFLX +0.9%) with a Neutral in July, has raised his PT to $390 from $355, albeit while maintaining his original rating.
  • May declares Netflix "the largest and most innovative company in the Internet TV sector," and is lifting his broadband penetration and Netflix subscriber forecasts for the streaming giant's international markets.
  • He now expects Netflix's international sub base to post a 39% CAGR from 2013-2016, up from a prior 31%, and is modeling 15% growth for later years. May also continues to expect a $1/month U.S. price hike in 2016.
  • Shares are trading higher on a down day for the Nasdaq. They're up 296% YTD.
Comments (8)
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4117) | Send Message
    The analyst says there is 7% of appreciation left, but leaves his opinion at neutral? That shows minimal confidence at best. Is he just going through the motions since his target of $355 has already been met?
    11 Dec 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Vick13
    , contributor
    Comments (129) | Send Message
    Interesting Read:


    Marketwatch story/Netflix-wont-tak... per-month


    The last quote sums it up - "There’s no predicting the future, but there’s also no reason to believe that Netflix will ever be more than what it currently is: a place to watch things a second time. In all likelihood, the streaming giant will continue to charge $7.99/month. It will continue to pay $6/month for content, little of it original. And Netflix won’t be taking over the world!"


    Today's unfounded rise of $8/shr was based on the ridiculous so-called "refined" analysis from Citi's Mark May. The SEC needs to uncover how analyst crooks like this are tied into guys like Icahn somewhere down the line to orchestrate this short squeeze. I'm sure Citi's trading desk made millions today!!!
    11 Dec 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Sakelaris
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
    Yes Vick, I read that Marketwatch article. It read like an ad by the cable companies.


    Those who have cut the cord will not go back.


    11 Dec 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Aceinmysleeve
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
    These analysts.. they just take the current stock price and add a little to it. Are his updates to projections based on new information or simply based on a higher stock price? Weak sauce.
    11 Dec 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Water Brothers Financial Co...
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
    I am sure if you could go back and get these guys' reports on Blockbuster and Blackberry they were touting them as well. The idea that this company, which is trading at 100x a best case earnings scenario - 90 million subs at 1$ profit/month - is insane and there will be a lot of investor dollars lost in this stock.
    11 Dec 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • joern68
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
    Short in Netflix. It has insane valuations and is in deep trouble once Apple or Google are becoming serious in entering the market.
    12 Dec 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • Sakelaris
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
    For about three years we have been hearing this story of impending doom for Netflix due to well-financed competition. Why hasn't such competition materialized during all this time?
    12 Dec 2013, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Aceinmysleeve
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
    If Apple or Google decide they want to take Netflix head on, it will certainly hurt. It's not particularly necessary for them to bother, and they certainly haven't so far. Most likely they just sprinkle on streaming benefits like a few original programs or whatnot. This is not any more competition than what Netflix already faced in competing with cable.


    I'd wager it's 10B$+ in guaranteed losses, a 4-5 year minimum before breakeven, and no guarantee of any payoff by trying to compete in a full on blitz. It's simply too late.
    15 Dec 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
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