Seeking Alpha

Questcor -4.6% AH on Retrophin synthetic ACTH development candidate news

  • Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) shares fall 4.6% AH after Retrophin (RTRX) fires a shot across Achtar's bow, announcing that it is developing a synthetic ACTH analog candidate called RE-034.
  • Retrophin intends to file an Investigational New Drug application and initiate a Phase I trial in 1H 2014. It then plans to initiate Phase III trials of RE-034 for the treatment of infantile spasms and nephrotic syndrome, both of which are use cases of Achtar.
  • CEO Martin Shkreli: "our synthetic ACTH can potentially bring relief to the high cost burden associated with the currently available animal-derived formulation in the U.S."
  • Short seller Citron Research has targeted Questcor in the past on issues of pricing and substitution, stating that Synacthen (the rights for which Questcor recently acquired) is a synthetic equivalent of Achtar that has been prescribed in Europe for over a decade "at 1/1000th the price."
Comments (33)
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (1820) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like step one in the systematic dismantling of most of QCOR's value - as predicted. QCOR was a "too good to be true story" from the get go:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Dec 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • colt1
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    And is years away from happening, if ever....
    17 Dec 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • sciences
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    lol really Raven ?

     

    Not yet in ph I, we are talking about a decade assuming the new substance shows significant therapeutic efficacy
    17 Dec 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • topicviewer
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Surely you jest. They would have to run full phase III trials for each indication that Achtar is currently approved. Let's see, that's 3 to 5 years for each of the 16 PIII's and they started with the least lucrative first.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (1820) | Send Message
     
    It's not the timeline. It's the principle involved here. Other companies are starting to "get it" the way that insurance companies are starting to "get it" with QCOR.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Kboyd78
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    Do you have any idea how long it takes a drug to clear clinical trials starting at phase 1? Another buying opportunity.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • steven russo
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    Systematic dismantling? Are you delirious? Numbers don't lie Jack! Qcor will pull in over $1 Billion in sales for 2014, Good luck to RTRX but they should spend their time developing drugs that we do not have a cure for yet. Make sense?
    17 Dec 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • loufah
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't matter if it's 5 years or 10 years out. QCOR as a company is now on its deathbed.

     

    Never invest in a one-trick pony.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • love man
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    its 100% about the timeline. U wouldn't understand that because u have no clue what real investing is about. Every year that goes by, Qcor generates 25% of its market cap, which means that in 4 yrs the company will have bought itself back and that anything after yr 4 is all upside. Anyone that knows how the pharma industry works, knows that unless u have an AB rated generic to your brand, you will a have tremendous tail of sales regardless how good the competition is. Topic is 100% correct, every indication will require clinical studies. This will take a decade. By that time QCOR will have generated more than 3X its current value. Your just investing on madeup newsflow thats called manipulation not investing. You & the rest of the Shorts never tie anything back to valuation which will be your downfall.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Stiles
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Seeking Alpha should at least do a bit more research before publishing this kind of dribble. This company is a pimple on a zit on an elephant with negative stockholders' equity and a Market Cap of less than $130 million. I don't think they have or can get the financing to start a Phase I trial.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • jerry parker
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    +1 pimple on elephant...reminds me of animal house and john belushi - guess what i am?
    17 Dec 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • jerry parker
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Orphan drugs need to go after diseases where there are NO approved drugs. Otherwise, it will be nearly impossible to get enrollment completed. Think about it - if your child were one of 2,000 babies per year who had IS, would you try a new experimental drug when Acthar is already FDA approved and is the gold standard? Btw, this will be a long trial, even if FDA approves, as there has to be long term safety data to be studied. Hello 2018...if Retrophin even has enough money to last the next six months.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • libertyfree
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    SA does not have to do any research. All SA needs is traffic to its web site and whatever brings the traffic is welcome.
    18 Dec 2013, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Economist
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    I can't remember the last time the shorts tried this hard at takedowns. Fascinating.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (1820) | Send Message
     
    Take down? Spoken like a buy side analyst.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • drdon
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    Raven when are you ever going to write in a truthful manner? You jump for glee on this "astounding" news with nary a scintilla of truth. No timeline, a company with shaky assets, have you even thought to quoth how long trials would take, if they all went according to a plan that may not even exist? How long Raven, how long? Will you quoth for us?
    17 Dec 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • surferdan
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    dr, and where does this company get the bucks to fund these trials?
    17 Dec 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • drdon
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow Shkreli and company are holding an investor's conference for potential investors. The drug's name is sparsentan. Do I smell Citron in the air? What a lemon.
    17 Dec 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Economist
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    "Buy side Analyst"...Excellent investigative work to have read my profile!

     

    I'll try to hide it better next time.

     

    Fact is that I own this stock. It's not a big position. But I feel like I get some idiotic short inspired news in my email box every day.

     

    At some point, one has to wonder what the motivations of the shorts are. If it's a POS, then let it crash by itself no need to manipulate. Shorts never win this game financially OR legally.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • jdadyfinance
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    So basically by the time Questcor's Achtar exclusivity ends this will be on the market, maybe. This changes what exactly ? By that time we will know if any of the other indications for Achtar are successful. QCOR future is not about the current indications and all this noise is just that!
    17 Dec 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Awfully suspicious that all these negative headlines continue to pop up at the same time the short % has spiked. Just remember shorts that QCOR is buying back their own stock. http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Dec 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    Great one! QCOR can eliminate dividends. I don't mind that. They can use that cash to buyback more shares than planned. It would be interesting to see these guys scrambling for thin air at some point in time.

     

    Also agree, patients would only enrol if they fail Acthar prescription. By the time all is said and done with the FDA approvals (proving long term superiority over Acthar) the R&D bite and patient population won't justify Citron's deluded price. Competition would focus on efficacy and price tag won't matter.

     

    Mind you shorts - focus on efficacy not price tag. This argument is not akin to developing painkillers and the disease states are not your run off the mill kinds. If it truly does go to Phase 3 with all enrolments completed it has to prove efficacy over Acthar that already has 60%+ efficacy on refractory patients who have failed to respond on corticosteroids.

     

    Also one related point. I was late in this game but after carefully reading the Aetna policy on Acthar it strongly suggests that Acthar may be reimbursed for patients who fail steroids even though efficacy data on acthar is not available. It's not a denial like the shorts have purported.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • jerry parker
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    seeking alpha is at risk of losing credibility as it becomes known as vehicle for shorts to manipulate stock. i'm reading increasingly more critical comments of short rebuttals and/or positive articles getting deleted or not allowed to publish. the biggest risk is SEC asking for all emails to by SA(including by hedge funds) and reviews their criteria(and hedge funds' trades, texts, vm's, and emails).
    17 Dec 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • drdon
    , contributor
    Comments (186) | Send Message
     
    At risk you say. Well beyond that point. We all are aware of SA's propensity to favor the short thesis and especially here with Questcor. It wasn't that long ago when they took down Michael Fuller's well written article essentially claiming it debased some well known shorts. What a joke.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Bc12852
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Retrophin doesn't appear to have the funds to keep the doors open much less develop a new drug. No revenues EVER, increasing debt, trades in OTC……sounds like a scam to me that is funded by the shorts. Another weak attempt to take QCOR down that just presents a good buying opportunity. Sure seems like SA is involved on the short side to me.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • rangerbob42
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    If this has anything to it, then what is going to stop Qcor from buying this one off of the market.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • clydec
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    You're dead on jerry parker !!! If I added to your comments I'm sure to be "zapped !!"
    17 Dec 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    If I'm an investor - where should I put my money?

     

    1. Retrophin - with its shaky financial profile and highly uncertainty pathway to seek approval on conditions that have established therapies.

     

    2. Questcor - Established & growing revenue stream and financial muscle with clinical trials in process for conditions that have higher unmet demand for alternative therapies. All of this coupled with the grossly undervalued PPS.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Kline
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    If just bought 16 call options an plan to buy some more soon as I sell these Januarys! The 16 are April! January is too close to the Time expiration to hold or I would! This smoke screen pushing the shorts will soon die out!
    17 Dec 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (10894) | Send Message
     
    QCOR has no patent rights to Achtar, it's merely production technique which is not very cost efficient. The point is that it works and until an affordable solution is created it provides a good solution. Hopefully for those needing it Retrophin will work because Achtar is simply not affordable, especially with the massive markup QCOR tacks on, and it is understandable that insurance balks at covering it.

     

    QCOR should be saving and investing in new drugs, because its only a matter of time before a affordable method for producing this appears.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mongoose7916
    , contributor
    Comments (199) | Send Message
     
    Part of the reason they acquired Biovectra was so they could keep a lid on the manufacturing secrets of Acthar. It can be argued that the trade secrets in the manufacturing process is far more important to have than patents. Direct competition may happen eventually but it is very unlikely to happen in the next few years.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • leopardtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (742) | Send Message
     
    QCOR now to headed to $70/80 soon. Gonna get long later today..most bad news now in this price. Time to prove cynics wrong as always in the market
    18 Dec 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (344) | Send Message
     
    QCOR is dirty, and those that invest in it have no morals.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
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