Seeking Alpha

More from Ford's year-end update (in progress)

  • Ford (F) says it lowered its estimate for 2013 full-year profit in part due to higher warranty expenses in the U.S. associated with a large recall of Escape vehicles.
  • The automaker also faces some extra adversity in Venezuela as a result of unanticipated government actions. Performance estimates for Asia/Pacific/Africa and Europe are on track with Ford's prior outlook.
  • The automaker almost cut in half its pension obligation during 2013 on an aggressive lump sum program.
  • Product launches in 2014: North America 23; South America 4; Europe 12; Asia/Pacific/Africa 8.
  • Year-end presentation: webcast, slides (.pdf).
  • F -4.4% premarket.
Comments (14)
  • This presentation is perceived as very negative, doesnt reflect Fords progress, no wonder that stck is down 5%.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • If the earnings going forward are expected to drop, the price will certainly drop with it. No surprises there.

     

    The shock is that this is the first we are hearing of it. It is going to take some time for the fallout dust to settle out on this nuclear news.

     

    In the mean time we are in for a rocky ride. The short term traders are rushing the exits and crashing the gates, climbing the fences, and trampling on each other and their own mothers, grandmothers, and children, in the ensuing panic to get out.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tdot - Great comment....I always like reading what you have to say about ford.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • It's more about execution, if they do not execute throughout 2014 and keep having warranty issues then risks will become real. If they execute then 2015+ will be promising. The valuation adjustment is from wall streets focus on 12 or shorter month time frame.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • It's more about execution, if they do not execute throughout 2014 and keep having warranty issues then risks will become real. If they execute then 2015+ will be promising. The valuation adjustment is from wall streets focus on 12 or shorter month time frame.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • It looks to me like they're doing a good job improving things and meeting their plan.

     

    The presentation just doesn't show the complete world domination some may have been expecting.

     

    I bought F because I think they have a good reasonable plan, and are executing it, which will give me a decent return. I wasn't expecting an instant multi-bagger.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Got called out of my position awhile back, thinking of getting back in with the price drop.

     

    Halving the pension obligation is a big positive. I do have concerns about what seems to me too many recalls though.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • On reflection, yeah this looks like a good re-entry point. Took a new position, may add to it below 15.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Of course it's perceived as Negative. When the company just last week announced it was hiring 11000 workers and opening 3 new factories the market expected an increase in the dividend at least and news on the Mulally status.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • So Ford is investing in the future with this very aggressive product launch which will negatively impact earnings next year. Since I am a long investor I am ok with this. One item that seemed to get little press was the fact that they no longer need to put $5billion into their pensions plans next year( more like $1 to $2 billion). This will free up cash for their dividend increase that they should announce next month.
    18 Dec 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • this thing is a Dinosaur. I never thought i'd say "you're stuck with the internal combustion engine" but "you're stuck with the internal combustion engine." when the Fed monetizes auto loan debt...guess what...you get a bubble in production! real estate recovery does not broad based economic growth make. sure...the input prices have totally collapsed...but the theory that the USA is going to do a 16 million run rate "for another ten years" (after having done that since 1996!) is really out there. the only way is if the "new car starts pricing out the old (used) one." if you're building the same car then that can only be done if you drop the price to under ten grand. that would be for something new with a million mile warranty "and you start selling them at Sears."
    18 Dec 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Wow.

     

    Not sure where to begin to your rant, but frankly the facts just don't support any of your arguments. Case in point ---

     

    1) The average age of the automobile in this country is at an all-time high (as of last summer).

     

    2) European economies seem to be bottoming out. Any improvement is a bonus for both Ford and GM.

     

    3) Ford's truck business almost always corresponds to an increase in construction in the US. Obviously, this has increased sales over the last 12 months. If you believe, as I do, that housing and construction will increase as the economy improves, then this is another strong positive for Ford.

     

    4) Your long winded rant against the "combustion engine" not withstanding, Ford is a leader in developing alternative fuel vehicles. In my opinion, another reason to be long.

     

    The only real negative for Ford short term, again in my opinion, is Mullaly's departure should that in fact occur. Any significant drop would be a long-term buying opportunity.

     

    I'd be will to bet (and I've put my money where my mouth is) that both Ford and GM are BOTH trading sigifiicantly higher at this time next year. Ford in the low $20's and GM in the mid-$50's.

     

    Disclosure - Long F with stock and long GM with both stock and long dated call options.
    
    18 Dec 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Pent up demand is likely to remain a positive for several years.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Keep selling! And thanks for giving me a great entry point again!
    19 Dec 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
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