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Netflix (NFLX), which ended Q4 with less than 24M streaming subscribers, is aiming to eventually...

Netflix (NFLX), which ended Q4 with less than 24M streaming subscribers, is aiming to eventually have 60M-90M, or 2x-3x as many as HBO, according to a presentation from Reed Hastings. His logic: Netflix is cheaper than HBO, doesn't require a cable subscription, offers a wider selection of content, and features a personalized UI. It has also been labeled as "rerun TV" due to its focus on older shows. (earlier)
Comments (6)
  • I don't see why people are so down on Netflix. 80-120% of the addressible market is a totally reasonable goal.
    14 Feb 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Good observation. Initially, I thought the 60M-90M was global, but I read the presentation, and it looks like the reference was the U.S. This subscriber target must imply multiple subscriptions per household.
    15 Feb 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • More likely the subscription target is baseless hype.
    15 Feb 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • I didn't look at the presentation but you can't evaluate a business based on what is perhaps a bad slide in a presentation. CEO's mis-speak, they rely on subordinates who don't have the big picture to prepare presentations and they can't think of every possible way of interpreting how a comment should be interpreted.

     

    Worth looking at and considering but in a list of important things to consider the slide probably ranks near the bottom. Focusing on unimportant issues seems to be a common problem on Seeking Alpha when it comes to evaluating Netflix.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Yeah, it's not like one would expect the CEO to know that 90M domestic households is basically impossible.

     

    A CEO that knows a rough estimate of their addressable market? Now that is simply asking too much.

     

    Hastings selling his book and at this point is looking increasingly desperate.
    16 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • A CEO doesn't need to get all the details right but he (or she) absolutely has to get the big picture right.

     

    The presentation boldly said Netflix USA should grow to 2-3X the size of HBO (which has 30M household subscribing). It was presented as it if were obvious as opposed to totally made up.
    17 Feb 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
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